New State Polls (7/26/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Missouri
|
7/24
|
+/- 3%
|
1172 likely voters
|
39.73
|
49.01
|
9.14
|
+9.28
|
+5.76
| |
Nevada
|
7/18-7/22
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
+5.33
| |
New Jersey
|
7/18-7/22
|
+/- 4.2%
|
535 likely voters
|
50
|
42
|
6
|
+8
|
+12.90
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
| Changes (July 26) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | Toss Up Romney | Lean Romney | |
The Show-Me state is one of those states that probably deserves more than the sporadic polling it has received thus far in 2012. However, the handful of surveys that have been in the field have been fairly consistent. Mitt Romney has hovered around the 50% mark all year while Barack Obama has been mired in the low to mid-40s. That was true of the We Ask America poll that was in the field on July 24. Well, the Romney end of it was true anyway. The former Massachusetts governor held a 49% share of respondents. President Obama, on the other hand, hit his low point in Missouri surveys overall in this one. The most that can be said is that the margin was enough to push the FHQ weighted average into Lean Romney territory, which seems about right. Missouri was not particularly proximate to the average of the lone remaining Toss Up Romney state, North Carolina.
Nevada:
The new Rasmussen poll out of the Sliver state was nothing new. Nevada continually shows an edge for the president in the surveys conducted there. And though it is nearly equivalent for Obama to the advantage Romney enjoys in Missouri, the outlooks for both states could not be more different. Missouri is seemingly locked down at around +5 for Romney, but Nevada is a different story. More than anything that is indicative of how much the election will swing back toward Republicans in 2012 relative to 2008. At the moment that safe Obama line can be drawn somewhat comfortably from the Obama perspective at the line between the Toss Up and Lean Obama states. But the coming months will answer whether that comfort level is a summer phenomenon.
In any event, the Rasmussen poll is consistent with the other two Rasmussen polls done prior to this one. For that matter, this poll is consistent with the entire pool of Nevada polls. Obama's range has been from 48-52 while Romney has regularly operated in a 42-46 range.
New Jersey:
Despite the fact that the Monmouth poll of New Jersey released this morning indicated the smallest lead of any poll yet in the Garden state, it did little to shake up the FHQ average. It dropped it slightly, but not by much. The key here is that this is the first likely voter poll out of New Jersey. The full registered voter sample showed a 51-38 Obama advantage. That result is in line with other polls in New Jersey. Furthermore, the transition to the likely voter sample may give us an eye into -- though I don't want to overgeneralize here, particularly across states -- that dynamic elsewhere. It has been hypothesized that Romney would get a boost out of such a shift when it occurs, but most polling outfits have yet to make the shift. The bump in this particular poll was not insignificant, but is not all that consequential in a state like New Jersey. Elsewhere? Well, that's a different matter. It is something that bears watching as we approach the conventions.
The day's polls did very little to alter the map or the Electoral College Spectrum. It is worth noting that Missouri moved into the Lean Romney category, but that is not nearly as significant a change as the Michigan shift was to the president yesterday. Michigan may very well be a place where the president is ultimately playing defense. Missouri will likely not prove likewise for Romney. Despite the category shift, Missouri maintains its position on the Spectrum. Nevada also held stead, but New Jersey flipped spots with Connecticut.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
CT-7
(153)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
NJ-14
(167)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
MS-6
(52)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(129)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
AZ-11
(181)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The group of states on the Watch List remains unchanged but now, as was the case with Michigan yesterday, Missouri is statistically within range of switching back to a Toss Up Romney state even if the reality is that the Show-Me state is trending toward Romney and away from Obama. All told steady is the name of the game and nothing in today's polling fundamentally changed that.
...nor should we expect it to.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Romney
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Washington
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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