The FHQ weighted averages currently show Obama with a fairly significant lead when they are filtered through the electoral college and quantified in that way. But a 1.5% rate of GDP growth does not necessarily jibe well with that conclusion. In fact, the shrinking level of growth portends a very close election. [See graphic and discussion from Seth Masket for more.] That is not all that different from the outlook most who construct and look at political science elections forecasts had before the numbers were released, but now we're able to plug in a pretty reliable indicator of incumbent party/candidate success in the general election into a parsimonious model and project the impact.
As I have stated before, the electoral vote totals are here and updated daily (no change in the tally through two weeks of updates), but we really should not be focusing too heavily on those yet. The handful of toss up states that are on the board tilt ever so slightly toward Obama at the moment. That can and will likely change over time. But a close election in terms of the popular vote does not necessarily translate into a close outcome in the electoral college as in 2000 or 2004. Look no further than 1960 for an example. But 2012 isn't quite that close.
...yet.
New State Polls (7/27/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio
|
7/24
|
+/- 3%
|
1115 likely voters
|
47.84
|
40.20
|
9.93
|
+7.64
|
+4.09
| |
Wisconsin
|
7/25
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
4
|
+3
|
+5.98
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Ohio:
I snarkily said that not even the Priorities USA survey in Florida showed as sizable a margin as the Survey USA poll released late last week in the Sunshine state. [That probably isn't fair to Garin, Hart and Yang -- the polling group that surveyed Florida on behalf of the Democratic-aligned group.] However, the same comment can be used on the new We Ask America survey of Ohio. Not even the June Priorities USA poll of the Buckeye state showed as wide a margin there as the +8 advantage WAA found for Obama.
We should expect variability from poll to poll. Period. This poll is in the same direction as all the polling conducted in Ohio through June and July and joins a handful of other surveys that show a wider Obama lead. The key here at Nate Cohn I think accurately stated (via Twitter) is that Ohio is more about Romney losing ground than Obama gaining. And that's right. Obama has consistently landed in the 45-50% range in Ohio polling. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has had a range twice as large, bouncing around between 38-48%. Most polls find the former Massachusetts governor in the mid- to low 40s. The key is going to be how that 7.5% of undecideds breaks (FHQ weighted average of undecideds in Ohio).
Wisconsin:
Things in the Badger state tightened a touch, but that is about all. The +3 Obama edge in the newly released Rasmussen poll actually in an improvement upon the the firm's June survey in the state that showed Romney -- not Obama -- ahead by three. Rasmussen continues to be the only polling outlet with Wisconsin results any closer than around five points. They pull the weighted average down some, but not outside of the lean category.
All told, neither poll did anything to alter either the map or the positioning of Ohio and Wisconsin on the Electoral College Spectrum. Ohio remains the pivotal state where either candidate would surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Wisconsin joins a group with Michigan and Nevada straddling the line between toss up and lean while still favor Obama by greater than 5%.
While I'm on the subject of Wisconsin, I should take the time to address Peter Hamby's examination of electoral college tie scenarios. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania figured heavily in several of them. Now, changes can and will occur between now and election day, but any projection that has Mitt Romney taking either or both of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania while Obama wins North Carolina and/or Virginia to force an electoral college tie -- or any other electoral college outcome for that matter -- just isn't that plausible. The Electoral College Spectrum below demonstrates why. Realistically, if Romney wins Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin, then all of the middle column states in light blue are likely going to come along for the ride. Again, think about a pendulum swing where there is a certain ordering of states and not about campaigns picking and choosing -- and ultimately peeling off -- one target state on an island. An electoral college tie is possible, it just isn't probable. And if we're hunting for one, look for scenarios that divide the toss up states in blue in the middle column.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
CT-7
(153)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
NJ-14
(167)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
MS-6
(52)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(129)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
AZ-11
(181)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Though the map and Spectrum were unchanged relative to Thursday's update, the two polls that were released today did add a couple of new states to the Watch List. Ohio is now within a fraction of a point of jumping into the Lean Obama category and Wisconsin is now just in range of a shift to Toss Up Obama. As always, of states where polls are most likely to make a difference -- in the FHQ weighted average -- the following are the ones to eye most closely.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Romney
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Washington
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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