New State Polls (7/28/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Dakota
|
7/24-7/26
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
35
|
54
|
12
(includes "other" responses) |
+19
|
+16.46
| |
Ohio
|
7/23-7/24
|
+/- 4.01%
|
597 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
3
|
+2
|
+3.95
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
North Dakota:
What a difference four years makes. At this point in 2008, North Dakota was a toss up state by FHQ's measure; closer than eventual blue states Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.1 That is either an indictment of the methodology or a cautionary tale about placing too much faith in the predictive power of polls conducted during or before July. Given how things ended up in November, I am comfortable saying it was the latter. The 2008 polling of the Peace Garden state up to July showed a race in the low to mid-single digits (in both directions: Obama & McCain).
North Dakota ultimately ended up in the McCain column in November, but the Arizona senator's advantage in vote share was just less than 9 points. In July that would have been a Lean McCain state. In 2012, Romney's advantage -- according to FHQ's weighted average -- is about eight points greater than the Republican vote share in 2008 and more than 15 points greater than the simple average of polls at this point in the race in 2008. North Dakota is firmly on Romney's side of the ledger.
Ohio:
I said quite a bit about Ohio yesterday, so I'll keep it brief here. This Magellan poll at +2 Obama is probably a better snapshot of the Buckeye state than the +8 Obama We Ask American survey. It is closer to the FHQ weighted average anyway. In the terms of yesterday's discussion, the Magellan poll finds Obama at the very bottom of this Ohio range and Romney right in the middle of his more widely dispersed set of poll points. Look, Ohio is going to be right there as a potential tipping point state unless something comes along to fundamentally alter the outlook of this race. A Portman selection as Romney's running mate would change things, but probably not enough to consider that the type of fundamental shift to which I'm referring. But it would have an effect.
Neither poll did enough to the weighted averages in either state to change the electoral college map. The Electoral College Spectrum saw North Dakota switch places with Mississippi, but that is more a cosmetic change than a consequential one. Again, North Dakota is a Romney state and that isn't going to change.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
CT-7
(153)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
NJ-14
(167)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(129)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
AZ-11
(181)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The We Ask American Ohio poll put the Buckeye state on the Watch List, but the Magellan poll recalibrated the weighted average just enough to pull it back off again. Other than that the list remains unchanged.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Romney
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Washington
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
--
1 Note that the July 30 electoral college post in 2008 is when the at that point yet to be named -- or fully formed for that matter -- Electoral College Spectrum made its first appearance.
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