New State Polls (7/31/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
7/26-7/29
|
+/- 3.3%
|
871 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
5
|
+1
|
+1.19
| |
Missouri
|
7/30
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
50
|
3
|
+6
|
+6.39
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
All has been quiet on the Florida front since the surprising +5 Obama poll was released out of the Sunshine state by Survey USA over a week ago. Public Policy Polling was in the field over the weekend, however, and found what a great many of the other polls in the state have found: a dead heat. Most polls since May have shown a race that slightly -- and I mean slightly -- favors the president, but one that rarely indicates a race anymore than +4 in one direction or the other. The PPP poll was the same with (likely voter) respondents giving Obama a 48-47 edge.
Missouri:
Last week, FHQ wanted to call Missouri underpolled, but three polls later, perhaps we have a clear reason why that has been. Mitt Romney simply -- and not all that surprisingly really -- holds a comfortable advantage in the Show-Me state. Mind you, Missouri has never been any closer than three points -- in an April Rasmussen poll -- and the existing Republican margin in the state has been highlighted even more after this latest flurry of polling activity there. In a steady race, Missouri has been pretty steady and will likely remain that way: Steady Romney.
What do either of these polls mean for the map or the Electoral College Spectrum? Well, nothing really. The map is stationary. Meanwhile neither poll shifted either state much at all, since both were consistent with the prevailing weighted average anyway. Missouri is in Romney's column and Florida is the first line of defense -- albeit one with a tenuous but consistent to this point grasp on the position -- on the blue side of the ledger.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
CT-7
(153)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
NJ-14
(167)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(129)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
TN-11
(180)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
MO-10
(169)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Somewhat surprisingly, trading out a +5 Obama poll for a +1 Obama poll did not have all that big of a statistical impact on the FHQ weighted average. The margin only dipped .02 of a point. Importantly, that keeps Florida off of the Watch List.
...for now.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Washington
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/29/12)
The Electoral College Map (7/28/12)
The Electoral College Map (7/27/12)
The Electoral College Map (7/29/12)
The Electoral College Map (7/28/12)
The Electoral College Map (7/27/12)
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