No other state has simultaneously proven as consistently competitive yet has been so sporadically surveyed in 2012. Other than a double digit Obama lead in a Public Policy Polling survey in May and another from the firm in mid-July (+5 Obama), the Hawkeye state has shown only a slight overall margin in either direction, but never anything more three points. In fact, it could be argued that what is driving the Obama lead in the current FHQ averages is the presence of those two PPP surveys. Without them, Obama's advantage -- 1.61 points -- disappears and becomes a small Romney lead -- 0.71 points.
There are a couple of take home messages from this:
1) Iowa is very much in the toss up category and deserving of the attention of both campaigns.
2) Iowa is also deserving of much more polling than it has received given how close the Hawkeye state appears to be. FHQ suspects this will change moving forward and especially after the two conventions are concluded.
It isn't fair to remove the PPP surveys altogether -- It is data after all. -- but they do appear to be out of step with the scant other polling that has been conducted in Iowa in 2012. Context, context, context. [Recall also, that those past polls are discounted in the averages by FHQ's weighting scheme.]
New State Polls (8/10/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
|
8/8
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
46
|
6
|
+2
|
+1.61
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Iowa:
This new Rasmussen poll of Iowa looks a lot like the last one the firm released: Romney ahead, but within the margin of error (something we have seen of Obama's numbers outside of the PPP polls of the state, FHQ should add). The bottom line is that this new one is consistent with the previous polling in Iowa. Nothing more, nothing less.
Strategically, the Obama lead in the electoral college (based on the FHQ weighted averages) has been tenuous at best. But the fact that most of the toss up states broke -- however slightly -- in the president's direction jibed well with our understanding of states quadrennially slotted into those positions. They tend to break toward one candidate or the other relative to the baseline set by the previous election. But in a closer election, it more often becomes a matter of trying to determine where to draw the line differentiating between the toss ups. While Obama has had his lead in the national polls balloon this week, polling updates in Colorado and Iowa have simultaneously pushed those states closer to Florida and the blue/red line between the two candidates' groups of states.
And really, that isn't that much of a change in the outlook. That Ohio-through-Florida group of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below is the same group of states -- give or take a handful of others -- that will be talked about between now and election day in November. Each of those are within or right at 4 points right now. In other words, that blue/red line can be drawn at various points throughout that group of states, but unless all of them break for Romney, Obama will be reelected. [That assumes that the order of those states remains the same. Romney could also win with all those states minus Iowa or all of those states minus Colorado. Oddly enough, those are the two states that have drawn closer this week with the introduction of new polling data.]
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
WA-12
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(182)
|
VA-13
(288/263)
|
GA-16
(153)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
CO-9
(297/250)
|
WV-5
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
IN-11
(132)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
SC-9
(121)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
TN-11
(191)
|
NE-5
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
AR-6
(99)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
With just one new poll out before this post went live the odds were low that any state would be added or stricken from the Watch List; especially when it was one that was not already on it. That was certain the case with Iowa. The average margin contracted some, but not enough to add it to the Watch List. As of now there are no states on the list that are in range of a move into another candidate's tally of states other than North Carolina (and if anything the Tarheel state is trending away from that distinction).
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/8/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/7/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/8/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/7/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)
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