Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/15/12)

Imagine the creakiest door closing the tiniest of amounts, squeaking ever so slightly in the process. Now, FHQ doesn't know how well that approximates the impact of today's battleground state polls from Purple Strategies, but it is not that far off if only for today. Putting the fact that the FHQ weighted averages only minutely changed after the introduction of these polls aside, this was a pretty good set of survey data for the Romney campaign. The former Massachusetts governor had not led a poll in Ohio since a late May/early June Purple Strategies survey showed him ahead by three points. Similarly, Romney had not held the advantage in Virginia since a June We Ask America survey had him up five points on President Obama. [A July Quinnipiac poll had the two men tied in Virginia.]

But the question remains: While this is a good day polling-wise for the presumptive Republican ticket, is this a blip or the first evidence of a change in the tide in some of the most competitive states? Better yet, is this related to the Paul Ryan rollout as the Republican vice presidential nominee? [The Purple Strategies poll was in the field Monday and Tuesday after the Saturday announcement.] Finally, is this just some rather pedestrian state-level narrowing a la Campbell (2008)?

The answers? It will take more than a day's worth of polling from one survey research group to affect that kind of change.

That said, there is an awful lot of Romney pink in otherwise light blue (to this point) Obama states:

New State Polls (8/15/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/13-8/14
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
46
5
+3
+2.79
Florida
8/13-8/14
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
48
5
+1
+1.33
Missouri
8/8
+/- 3.8%
663 likely voters
46.8
47.9
5.3
+1.1
+4.88
Ohio
8/13-8/14
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
44
46
10
+2
+3.41
Virginia
8/13-8/14
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
45
48
8
+3
+2.63

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
There was some evidence last week that the gap in Colorado may be closing. Contrary to that and quite opposite of the dynamics within this series of polls from Purple Strategies, Obama holds on to the lead in the Centennial state. Now, to be sure, this is more a matter of maintaining the status quo -- It is right at the current FHQ weighted average. -- than anything else. Still, the polling over the last week in Colorado feels like an exercise in polling variability rather than tide turner.

Florida:
Mitt Romney leads in Florida, and that is the governor's first advantage in the Sunshine state since July, but that was in a Purple Strategies survey that had him ahead by a slightly larger margin. Relative to that poll, the margin in Purple Strategies polls in Florida has drawn closer by a couple of points. And that is all Obama gain. Romney held steady at 48% while Obama's share of the response increased from 45% to 47%. [That is true to the direction of the Colorado movement as well, though both candidates' shares increased there poll over poll.] In context, Romney's share in this poll is where it has been when it has been at its zenith, while Obama is right in the heart of his polling range in Florida.

Missouri:
Changes (August 15)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean RomneyToss Up Romney
The one surprise FHQ hinted at via Twitter earlier was in Missouri where a Chilenski Strategies poll echoing the +1 Romney margin from the latest Survey USA poll of the Show Me state was released. I am still not convinced that Missouri is this close or that deserves to be in the Toss Up category. These two surveys demonstrate to FHQ that Missouri is still underpolled, and while that may be the reality, a range is beginning to solidify there in terms of the margins between the two candidates. These two polls to this point represent the highest highs for Obama and the lowest lows (especially in the case of the Survey USA poll) for Romney.

Ohio:
If the trends in Colorado and Florida from one Purple Strategies poll to the other ran concomitantly to each other then the same is true of Ohio and Virginia in the aggregate at least. In Ohio, the president's share of support dropped off by four points while Mitt Romney's rate of support mostly held steady.

Virginia:
In Virginia, the opposite was true. Obama held steady while Romney's share of support in the Old Dominion increased by four points relative to the last Purple Strategies poll in the commonwealth in July. The 48% level of support is also the highest Romney has enjoyed there. The governor's 46% share in Ohio is at a similar crest (though one We Ask America poll in June had him higher at 48%).

All told, it is a good day for Romney, but with some interesting caveats/trends underneath the surface.


Together the new information does little to alter the outlook in the electoral college. Missouri slips back over into the Toss Up Romney category (...but only just so). There is still a great distance between the North Carolina on one end of the Toss Up Romney spectrum and Missouri on the other. On the Electoral College Spectrum, Colorado and Virginia switch places with each other again, a move emblematic of the shifts within all of these polls: Colorado and Florida moving toward the president (comparing Purple Strategies polls) and Ohio and Virginia shifting toward Romney. FHQ does not want to take too micro a view of all of this, but if this ends up a close election, these sorts of shifts among the most competitive states matter in the electoral college calculus.

...particularly if the develop into longer terms trends (something only time will tell).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remains the same in terms of the line up of states, but Missouri now moves from being a Lean but almost a Toss Up to a Toss Up but nearly a Lean. The Show Me state bears watching, but only to see if the establishing range of polls continues. If the latest polls are any indication of Obama's best showing there, then the president will be on the outside looking in in Missouri on election night.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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