Thursday, August 16, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/16/12)

Look, FHQ will not try to be that guy. The last two days have been good days for the Romney campaign in the state-level polls that have been released. However, as we mentioned yesterday -- and this is always the case -- there are caveats to these surveys when they are put in their proper context. We did not hesitate to call +5 Obama leads in Florida from Survey USA outliers and the same is true of any sudden change in the polls that breaks from pre-established norms within the polling data no matter which direction they run.

And this new collection of polls from Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not outliers in FHQ's estimation. However, the Rasmussen surveys, like the Purple Strategies polls released on Wednesday, have tended to tilt toward Romney anyway. What may appear to be a bounce -- related to the Paul Ryan announcement or whatever -- may instead just be a normal incremental progression of a previous polling trend within those polling firms or evidence of a house effect.

...or it could very easily be a polling bounce. Things are seemingly trending upward for Romney in some of the state polls, but we'll need a bit more of a consensus from other polling firms to confirm that.

New State Polls (8/16/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/15
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
43
45
8
+2
+1.14
Pennsylvania
8/7-8/12
+/- 3.8%
681 registered voters
47
42
7
+5
+6.38
Wisconsin
8/13-8/14
+/- 3.0%
920 registered voters
49
45
--
+4
+5.37
Wisconsin
8/15
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
48
2
+1
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
Another day, another Romney lead in the Sunshine state. The two point advantage is the largest Romney lead there since the July Purple Strategies poll (+3). But this new Rasmussen poll comes with an asterisk. Since the last Rasmussen poll -- early July, Romney +1 -- both candidates have seen their shares of support decrease, but with Obama dipping to his lowest point since the president garnered just 41% in a May Quinnipiac poll.

Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state also appears to be tightening. The new Franklin and Marshall poll has a 12 point Obama lead from June decreasing by half now (+5 Obama when leaners are included). That sounds like a significant shift, but it the new poll (with leaners) merely brings the Frankin and Marshall polls in line with where most of the polling in Pennsylvania has been over the last couple of months. It isn't a comfortable lead for the presidential there, but it has been a lead consistently in the Lean range throughout. That has been enough to keep both campaigns away from the commonwealth recently.

Wisconsin:
If ever there was a state where a bounce should/would be expected following the tapping of Paul Ryan as GOP vice presidential nominee, one should/would expect that in the representative's home state. Now, if one were to average the two polls from CNN/ORC and Rasmussen released today, Wisconsin would definitely fit within the Toss Up category (leaning toward the president). Within the context of other polls, however, these two surveys push the Badger state to the cusp of that designation according to the FHQ weighted averages. The Rasmussen poll represents a high point for Romney. The governor has not polled this high in Wisconsin all year. That is not unlike what was witnessed in a couple of the Purple Strategies polls released a day ago. The margin in Wisconsin may be contracting some, but this poll strikes a new Romney bound in the state rather than pushing the average off its perch on the fence between categories.


None of the new data introduced today did anything to alter the outlook in the electoral college nor the dividing lines between categories of states. However, it is worth noting that the Wisconsin-Nevada-Michigan group of states are all within .09 points of each other according to the FHQ weighted averages. There is some separation between that group and Pennsylvania-Oregon; more than there is between that trio and the Toss Up providing Obama with the greatest cushion, New Hampshire. As we head into the conventions, those three states will be a good testing ground. All are on the Watch List and all are in danger from the Obama campaign's perspective of pushing over into a more competitive categorization.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remains unchanged from yesterday, but the three states mentioned above bear some watching. There was a report today of a new Mitchell Research poll out of Michigan (49-44 Obama), but the details necessary to include the poll in our averages was not available. That also brings up the Moore Consulting poll in Maine yesterday that did not have a full reporting of data either. Obama led that poll of the Pine Tree state 52-37.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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