New State Polls (8/20/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
|
7/26-8/14
|
+/- 4.4%
|
495 likely voters
|
29
|
58
|
13
|
+29
|
+31.16
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Oklahoma:
Hmmm.
What can you say about the new Sooner Poll of likely voters in Oklahoma? I can think of a couple. First of all, this is the first poll out of a Strong Romney state in quite a while. The market has been flush with surveys covering the gamut of every state categorization but this one. In that regard, the silver lining is that we have some -- superfluous, perhaps -- confirmation from new data that Obama is not going to win Oklahoma. As I said earlier today, "Everyone put your purple crayons away." The other thing is that Obama gained a couple of points since the last Sooner Poll and Romney dropped a handful. And well, that got things under 30 points for the president, which takes us right back to point number one above.
Status quo. The map is unchanged and ruby red Oklahoma maintains its position deep in the heart of the Republican side of the ledger on the Electoral College Spectrum.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
WA-12
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(182)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(153)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
IN-11
(132)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
SC-9
(121)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
NE-5
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
TN-11
(181)
|
AR-6
(99)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List? I'll tell you what: If Oklahoma ever enters the Watch List, Obama will have won the election or the polling industry has crumbled. Neither's happening.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/17/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/12)
2012 Starts in Tampa
The Electoral College Map (8/17/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/12)
2012 Starts in Tampa
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