Thursday, August 2, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/2/12)

Thursday brought a couple of polls from deep blue states and the first survey of North Carolina in two weeks.

New State Polls (8/2/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.5%
771 likely voters
51
43
6
+8
+10.79
New Jersey
7/23-7/29
+/- 3.3%
945 registered & unregistered voters
49
36
15
+12
+12.93
North Carolina
8/1
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
49
4
+5
+1.26

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
FHQ doesn't know whether to be surprised by this one or not. On the one hand, the Nutmeg state is a place where Obama won by over 20 points in 2008. The fact that that advantage is down to 8 points in this PPP survey points to a shift back to the right, but one perhaps that is a little tighter than reality. After all, this is just the third time Connecticut has been polled in 2012 and this is the first likely voter sample. There should be some expectation, then, that there will be some volatility from poll to poll. Connecticut bears watching, but if Obama loses there in November, he will lose in a lot of 2008 blue states as well as the White House.

New Jersey:
Fairleigh Dickinson polls typically have shown quite a bit of wiggle room in New Jersey; mainly as a function of the high level of undecideds plus sample registered and unregistered voters. Despite that, this poll nearly matches the FHQ weighted average in the Garden state. It underestimates both Obama's and Romney's shares by about a point. Bottom line: New Jersey is a blue state.

North Carolina:
North Carolina is not a blue state, and on top of that is moving deeper into the red if this new Rasmussen poll of likely voters in the Tarheel state is any indication. Right now, North Carolina is to Romney what Florida is to Obama. That statement is true on at least a couple of fronts. Both Florida and North Carolina represent the closest states in FHQ's weighted average for Obama and Romney respectively. Also, polls may vary in each in a 1-4 point range (give or take), but more recent polls have shown gaps closer to the lower bound rather than the upper bound.

North Carolina has been defying the pendulum swing narrative FHQ has used, but additional +5 leads for Romney there will have the Tarheel state on the move.

...away from the president.



Strategically, as both the map above and Electoral College Spectrum below will attest, losing North Carolina is not in any way a death knell for President Obama. In fact, a second North Carolina win for Obama would be just like the first: icing on a cake already made of more than 270 electoral votes. Romney, however, needs North Carolina and needs the state as to be shut down as soon after the Democrats leave Charlotte as possible.

FHQ has mentioned this before, but if Romney can save resources in North Carolina, that is that much more he, his campaign and aligned Super PACs can spend elsewhere; Florida, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and Ohio just to name a few (...right above North Carolina on the Spectrum). It may also mean spending in bluer areas to keep Obama on the defensive as well depending upon how some of those Lean Obama states trend over the next month or more.

Strategy aside, the map is unchanged from yesterday. The Electoral College Spectrum is not. Driven by the overall lack of polling and the introduction of a new and tighter poll, Connecticut makes a pretty good jump from being Solid for Obama to the cusp of being on the upper end of the Lean Obama states. Both New Jersey and North Carolina stood pat in their previous positions.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
MN-10
(170)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
WA-12
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
AZ-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

And off goes North Carolina. With the Tarheel state off the Watch List, it even further resembles a mirror image of Florida. Both are certainly competitive, but both are deeper in the toss up category that it will take more than a handful of polls with large-ish leads like some of the recent ones in each state to push them to the other side of the color spectrum.

Connecticut replaces North Carolina on the list; joining a group of Strong Obama states that includes New Mexico and Washington on the lower end of the category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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