New State Polls (8/23/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
8/21
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
51
|
43
|
3
|
+8
|
+9.84
| |
Florida
|
8/15-8/21
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1241 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
5
|
+3
|
+0.26
| |
Michigan
|
8/18-8/20
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
47.5
|
42
|
10.5
|
+5.5
|
+4.60
| |
Missouri
|
8/20
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
42
|
52
|
7
|
+10
|
+5.55
| |
Ohio
|
8/16-8/21
|
+/- 3.4%
|
808 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
2
|
+3
|
+3.53
| |
Ohio
|
8/15-8/21
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1253 likely voters
|
50
|
44
|
4
|
+6
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
8/20-8/22
|
+/- 5.0%
|
422 likely voters
|
49
|
40
|
--
|
+9
|
+6.58
| |
Wisconsin
|
8/15-8/21
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1190 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
3
|
+2
|
+4.73
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
There has not been a lot of polling in the Nutmeg state, but what data has been released has shown a surprisingly "close" race. Connecticut has tightened more relative to 2008 than most other states. There seems to be a mid- to upper single digit swing back to the Republicans in 2012 compared to 2008, but Connecticut has lurched back a bit further than that. It was a state Obama won by over 20 points and now leads by just under 10 in the FHQ weighted averages.
Florida:
The new Q-poll of Florida continues to show the president ahead in the Sunshine state (versus a Q-poll earlier this month), but that is somewhat at odds with other recent, post-Ryan polling there. The survey is not an outlier as it fits within the pre-existing range established by the data we have available. Florida is a toss up and will likely continue to be for either candidate heading down the stretch.
Michigan:
While there has been some variation in the polling coming out of Michigan, the confluence of information out there has consistently shown President Obama ahead in the five point range. Some polls have occasionally had Governor Romney in the lead, but this one continues to be a state that hovers around the Lean/Toss Up Obama line.
| Changes (August 23) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Lean Obama | Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | Toss Up Romney | Lean Romney | |
This Akin insta-poll sample of Missouri from PPP may be a bit wider than the last two polls (a couple of +1 margins for Romney), but it pushes the Show Me state back into the Lean Romney category here at FHQ. And given the aforementioned swing in 2012 relative to 2008, that is likely where nearly-tied-in-2008 Missouri would be expected to be.
Ohio:
If Connecticut is a surprise in its larger change in 2012 compared to 2008 relative to other states, Ohio should be cited for the opposite. The Buckeye state has shifted to the right but only by a couple of points in FHQ's averages as compared to the final tally in 2008. Ohio has proven to be somewhat resistant to uniformly shifting as other states have. Still, the new Ohio Poll hits closer to the FHQ averages than the Q-poll (though the latter is in line with some other polling in the state).
Pennsylvania:
The Muhlenberg poll out of Pennsylvania today puts the margin in the race on the high side of the range of polling that has emerged from the Keystone state. That said, it is still consistent with other polling in the commonwealth and is counterbalanced by polling that has shown the race in the 4-5 point range.
Wisconsin:
Paul Ryan seems to be having an effect on the polling in his home state of Wisconsin. The margin has contracted a couple of points, but still leans in the president's direction.
Despite the flood of new data over the last couple of days, the changes here at FHQ remain minor. And that is, again, by design. The way the averages are set up, they react to changes in polling, but are not too erratic as to be swayed by one outlier survey. There has to be a clear trend. In terms of the electoral college tally, the only clear trends now are that 1) the toss up states favor the president at this point and 2) if there is to be any change to the tally, Florida will likely be the first state to drive that change. [North Carolina is close to a Romney-to-Obama switch, but none of the polling indicates that that is likely to happen. Florida on the other hand...]
On the Electoral College Spectrum, it is still early, but there is a clearly established group of states that will be the targets of campaign efforts down the stretch. Depending on what happens at the convention, that is subject to change, but the light blue/pink states are still the ones that will see the most attention.
No surprise.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
MI-16
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
RI-4
(10)
|
WA-12
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
HI-4
(14)
|
NM-5
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
MT-3
(140)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
MN-10
(187)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
IN-11
(132)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
SC-9
(121)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
NV-6
(227)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
NE-5
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NH-4
(231)
|
TN-11
(181)
|
AR-6
(99)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
WI-10
(241)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
On the Watch List, the two category switches (Connecticut and Missouri) stay put, but trade potential switch points. Connecticut is still safely blue, but is right along the Strong/Lean Obama line. Missouri, as FHQ said when it switched in this direction in July, is back to a Lean Romney state and is likely to stay that way; just perhaps on the low end of the category.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Romney
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/22/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/21/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/20/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/22/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/21/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/20/12)
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