Friday, August 24, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)

Things slowed down on the state-level presidential trial heat polling front on Friday, but it was pretty active compared to the last few Fridays.

New State Polls (8/24/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/21-8/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
44
5
+4
+2.89
Missouri
8/22
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+4.79
Virginia
8/23
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+2.61

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
There is a pretty tight range of polls in Colorado. Throw out the most recent Q-poll (Romney +5) and you are left with polls that tip toward Obama by anywhere from one to five points. This poll fits that bill. It is right on the FHQ average for Romney's share of support and just slightly overestimates where Obama is according to us.

Missouri:
Changes (August 24)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean RomneyToss Up Romney
I think I'm done commenting on Missouri for now. Every time FHQ mentions that Missouri is back in the lean category to stay, a new poll is released that pulls the weighted average under the 5% mark. The data certainly backs up the argument that Missouri has shifted toward the Republicans since 2008 and that shift is about five points, give or take. That said, this new Rasmussen poll feels like an outlier, but it is in line with two of the previous three polls in the Show Me state.

Virginia:
A simple question: Does anyone believe that if Missouri is, in fact, Obama +1 that Virginia is a tie? Fine, now flip that question. Those two states don't go together. Colorado and Virginia, perhaps, but not Virginia and Missouri. If Virginia is tied in November, then Missouri is a Romney state. Unlike the Colorado poll, Romney's share is overstated in this poll while Obama's is right on the FHQ weighted average of his share of respondents in Old Dominion polling.



I alluded to it above, but there is a certain order to these states in terms of the electoral college. We can begin to think of states in this way. For instance, a tie in Michigan means that Romney has won all of the states up to Michigan on the Electoral College Spectrum and with it the White House. Similarly, if, as the Spectrum now shows, Florida or North Carolina are ties, then Barack Obama has things wrapped up.

Now, mind you, it is early yet and things are going to change over the next few months, but this is one way that we can begin to use the Spectrum going forward. In other words, be on the lookout for polling mismatches particularly when they come from the same polling outfit.

--
Things were stationary on the map and in the Electoral College Spectrum following the introduction of new data today. Missouri slipped back into the Toss Up Romney category, but kept its spot on the Romney side of North Carolina. Beyond that, it was business as usual in Colorado and Virginia from where the other polls were released.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Missouri switched back to the way it was the day before yesterday: a Toss Up Romney state within a percentage point of jumping into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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