Saturday, August 25, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)

Saturday did bring some new polls, but FHQ added some late Friday leftovers as well. All told, there were four polls from three states added to the weighted averages.

New State Polls (8/25/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Massachusetts
8/21
+/- 4.0%
592 likely voters
52
41
7
+11
+17.05
Missouri
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
43
50
--
+7
+6.15
Missouri
8/23
+/- 3.4%
1057 likely voters
36.1
53.1
6.6
+17
--
Pennsylvania
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
601 likely voters
51
42
7
+9
+6.74

Polling Quick Hits:
Massachusetts:
Rarely has Massachusetts tipped toward the Republican Party at the presidential level in the modern era. But with the former governor on the ticket perhaps that might change. Well, the Bay state will, barring something very unusual, remain blue in November. Yet, on occasion Mitt Romney closes the gap in polling to a rather small level. This Kimball poll is one of those times. President Obama does not often slide into the lower 50s in Massachusetts and beyond that, this poll represents Romney's high water mark this year. Close poll, not close state.

Missouri:
Changes (August 25)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Hey look! Missouri switched back to Lean Romney again. FHQ won't say much else other than it will be good to get through this post-Akin period in Missouri polling. The Republican senate candidate from Missouri has added some volatility to this one. [Of course, it should be noted that one poll had the margin between Obama and Romney down to one point prior to the Akin comments on rape/abortion.]

Pennsylvania:
Another day, another nine point lead for the president in oft-talked about, swingy Pennsylvania. With numbers like those in the poll sponsored by the Philadelphia Inquirer, it may be that the Keystone state is not all that swingy after all. Compared to the FHQ averages, Romney's share is just off while the Obama share in the poll is about four points above where the the averages have his share of poll respondents.


These polls over the next couple of days and into mid-week are going to be our last round of pre-convention surveys. The data is likely to shift after that point and with it the tally in our electoral college outlook; something that has held steady since FHQ began charting this in mid-July. States over that time span have traded categories but have not crossed the partisan line to the red or blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum below filters that same data a bit differently. And while there have been fluctuations on the chart, what has developed is a pretty clear rank order of states; particularly those in the middle column where the most data is available. Most of the toss up states lean toward Obama at this point, but that is subject to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Missouri is off based on the wide gap in the Gravis survey there. That Romney +17  has Missouri deeper into the Lean Romney category, but it is still the lean state with the smallest margin on that side of the partisan line.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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