New State Polls (8/26/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan
|
8/23
|
+/- 2.74%
|
1277 likely voters
|
47
|
47
|
3
|
0
|
+4.27
| |
Ohio
|
8/15-8/25
|
+/- 2.1%
|
1758 likely voters
|
45
|
45
|
10
|
0
|
+3.34
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan:
FHQ does not mean to suggest that things are not tied in the Great Lakes state -- shifts in polling occur -- but 47 is the mid-point of the Obama range of polling in Michigan. Other than the FMWB poll earlier this week, Romney has not been at the 47% level as he is in the Mitchell Research survey. That has been the former Massachusetts governor's high point in Michigan polling to this point. Michigan is closer than it was in 2008, and it very well could be tied before all is said and done, but at this point it tilts toward Obama at this point. Going back to a point FHQ made the other day, if Michigan is tied and the order of states in the Electoral College Spectrum is accurate, then Mitt Romney has won the White House with a 2004-like split in the electoral college.
Ohio:
Now, in Ohio a stronger case could be made that things are tied, but only a slightly stronger case. The Buckeye state also leans toward the president now, but this Columbus Dispatch poll mirrors other recent polling showing a tighter race in the state. While Quinnipiac, for example, has seen Obama near the 50% mark in the last couple of polls, the Romney share in those polls is pretty close to the FHQ weighted averages. If anything, those outliers overestimate the Obama share of polling support. That is not some generalizable trend but is popping up within those Q-polls.
Both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged given the updated polling information from today. For all the talk about Michigan and Ohio above, it should not go without saying that the two states are back and right at the victory line (tipping point) level on the Spectrum. That group of light blue states not only between Michigan/Ohio and the partisan line between Florida and North Carolina, but the three states at the bottom of the second column over from the left in the Spectrum are still the states most worth watching (not surprisingly).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
MI-16
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
RI-4
(10)
|
WA-12
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
HI-4
(14)
|
NM-5
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
MT-3
(140)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
MN-10
(187)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
IN-11
(132)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
SC-9
(121)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(128)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
MA-11
(139)
|
NV-6
(227)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
NE-5
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NH-4
(231)
|
TN-11
(181)
|
AR-6
(99)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
WI-10
(241)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Speaking of watching, the Watch List was also stationary today. Michigan stays on but inches closer to being out of danger of slipping back into the Lean category. Ohio, meanwhile, is already in that position.
...off the list.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/12)
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