Monday, August 27, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/27/12)

On the kinda sorta opening day of the Republican National Convention in Tampa (or really any day really), it is never a bad thing to add polling data from the two closest states in FHQ's weight averages. And that is exactly what we got today: a handful of surveys from Florida and North Carolina.

What did they reveal?

More of the same.

New State Polls (8/27/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/22-8/26
+/- 3.5%
776 likely voters
50
46
3
+4
+0.44
North Carolina
8/22-8/26
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
47
48
3
0
+0.85
North Carolina
8/19-8/23
+/- 4.3%
540 registered voters
43
43
8
+1
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
FHQ will not call the new CNN/Time survey of likely voters in Florida an outlier, but there are a couple of things that separate it from other surveys of the Sunshine state. The margin is not out of the ordinary, but the president's share is overstated as compared to the extant polling data. Are there polls where Obama is at or above the 50% mark? Yes, but they are few and far between and represent the high point for Obama in the state. The Romney share is entirely consistent with both other polls and the FHQ averages in Florida. Overall, the poll resembles the Quinnipiac poll that was released late last week.

North Carolina:
The Tarheel state continues to defy the uniform national swing theory in poll after poll. For every poll that indicates that Romney is stretching out to a small lead there is a corresponding poll or two showing that North Carolina is poised to repeat its level of near two-party presidential vote parity from four years ago. That is the case in the two surveys made public today. Does the Old North State tip toward Romney? It does, but by a very slim margin at this point in the race.

[One footnote to this pair of polls is that the Survey USA/High Point University poll is a survey of registered voters. Though we have not witnessed a significant shift toward Romney in the registered to likely voter shifts that most polling outlets are in the midst of now and over the last month, there has been a move in the former Massachusetts governor's direction. Keep that in mind as you comb through the crosstabs linked to above.]


With the picture remaining largely unchanged in these two toss up states, little changes in either the electoral vote tally based on the FHQ weighted averages or in the Electoral College Spectrum below. And if any state was going to alter that tally and where the partisan line lies, it would be Florida and North Carolina. Both remained stationary after the introduction of new polling information today and so do the FHQ graphics. Neither state is likely to be the tipping point state in this election if the order of averages below holds, but both states are crucial in the electoral vote calculus of both campaigns.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List adds Florida, but that is due to an oversight on my part and not a change in the fundamental outlook in the Sunshine state. It will be added to reflect the change in Florida early last week on August 21.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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