Tuesday, August 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/28/12)

On the first day of the Republican Convention with real business on the docket, there were four new polls released from three blue states.

New State Polls (8/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
8/22-8/23
+/- 3.3%
881 likely voters
53
40
7
+13
+9.90
Connecticut
8/22-8/26
+/- 2.6%
1472 likely voters
52
45
2
+7
--
Iowa
8/23-8/26
+/- 2.8%
1244 likely voters
47
45
8
+2
+1.69
Ohio
8/27
+/- 3.0%
1397 registered voters
45.27
44.39
10.34
+0.88
+3.22

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
FHQ dealt with the Nutmeg state last week and the two polls from PPP and Quinnipiac neatly encapsulate the state of polling in the presidential horserace there. The margin in Connecticut in 2012 polling has tightened noticeably compared to the 2008 election results, but thus far that has only brought the state into the lean category in FHQ's weighted averages. Connecticut is safely blue, but like  most other states has shifted away from the president since 2008 and toward the Republicans (see Simon Jackman's fabulous capture of this dynamic). This is a fun one to talk about, but if Connecticut amounts to anything on election day -- as in flipping to Romney -- it is an icing on the cake sort of state for the former Massachusetts governor. He will have already won.

Iowa:
All the talk in the wake of this PPP survey was about how the margin had declined in the Hawkeye state. It has.

...in PPP surveys. Elsewhere, Iowa has already been quite tight. But this poll actually served to grow the FHQ average in Obama's favor. It was a minimal increase, but an increase nonetheless. Iowa is a toss up state (That's why Obama is there this week.) and there really is not more to say on the subject. The margin has narrowed based on the polls from one firm. Moving on...

Ohio:
Speaking of narrowing, Gravis Marketing has the gap in Ohio closing (...at least relative to some other recent polls of the Buckeye state). This is the first poll from Gravis in Ohio, and we don't have a previous poll at which to look. That said, the poll is in line with several surveys showing either a tie -- which this one isn't quite, mind you -- or a small Romney lead (four of the seven August polls).


Overall, none of these polls triggered any shifts in either the map (still 332-206 in the president's direction) or the Electoral College Spectrum. Ohio still mans the victory line spot where either candidate would cross the 270 electoral vote threshold and is still on the Obama side -- with some statistical cushion -- of several other swing states including Iowa. Florida is on its own in that group followed by the Iowa/Virginia/Colorado cluster. Ohio, then, occupies an somewhat isolated position of its own, closer to Romney than the four Toss Up Obama states between it and the Lean Obama states.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

With all the close Connecticut talk above, the Nutmeg state is still on the razor's edge between Strong and Lean status on the Obama side of the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum. That puts it on the Watch List, but as was mentioned above is only worth watching as a footnote to where all the real action is -- the toss up states. Connecticut aside, the List remains the same as it was a day ago.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


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