The Electoral College Map (8/30/12)

This week has not been the busiest week for state-level, trial heat polls in the presidential race. There just were not that many surveys in the field in the lead up to the Republican Convention (apparently) and it has shown. Through the first four days of the convention only ten polls have been released. In other words, the pre-convention data was pretty well settled heading into the week and we have our state-level baselines set in terms of looking for any bumps following the conclusion of the festivities in Tampa.

New State Polls (8/30/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Missouri	Public Policy Polling	8/28-8/29	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	41	53	6	+12	+6.65

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri:
The Todd Akin situation has fueled some volatility in the polling of the Show Me state over the last couple of weeks. However, the PPP survey released today is in line with the larger Romney advantage the firm showed in the immediate aftermath of the Republican senate candidate's comments. A ten point margin last week has given way to a 12 point lead this week, but those two are consistent with each other (and to some extent the wider gap Gravis Marketing found in the state), but differs from some other polls indicating a much closer race on the presidential level. The Akin variability will give way to the convention-charged volatility and the we'll al quickly move on. Missouri, as FHQ has mentioned on several occasions as it has flip-flopped to and from the Toss Up and Lean categories on the Romney side of the partisan line, is going to be, at best, just out of the Obama campaign's reach if not completely out of it.  Neither campaign is devoting much time to the state and that is probably our best indication of how much Missouri figures into the quest for 270 electoral votes.

For once, Missouri did not jump categories upon the introduction of new polling data. In fact, the wider margin in this PPP survey pushed the Show Me state deeper into the red beyond Tennessee (the quirkiest of red states in terms of the polling there. Nothing in the recent or not too distant past gives any indication that the Volunteer state is going to be anything but reliably and deeply red.). We do, then, see some change in the Electoral College Spectrum below, but with only one poll -- and one poll in a Lean Romney state -- that is the extent of the change today. The map above remains just as it was a day ago.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	NJ-14 (160)	MI-16 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	WA-12 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
HI-4 (14)	NM-5 (177)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
NY-29 (43)	MN-10 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	WV-5 (137)	KY-8 (37)
MD-10 (53)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	IN-11 (132)	KS-6 (29)
CA-55 (108)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	SC-9 (121)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	LA-8 (112)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NV-6 (227)	TN-11 (191)	NE-5 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	NH-4 (231)	MO-10 (180)	AR-6 (99)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (241)	SD-3 (170)	TX-38 (93)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Shifting to the Watch List, it too repeats the same line up as yesterday: a collection of blue states that, other than Florida, are closer to changing to Lean Obama states than to Toss Up Romney states. That is an important group of states to keep tabs on in the weeks to come. This is particularly true if we begin to witness and sort of bump for Romney-Ryan on the state level. But with the Democratic Convention following so closely on the heels of the Republican get-together in Tampa, that may blunt the impact of the Republican Convention to some degree. Regardless, the expectation is that the Republican ticket will get something of a bump out of its gathering.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up Romney	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
In Response to The Paulite Mess

The Electoral College Map (8/29/12)

The Electoral College Map (8/28/12)

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