FHQ tries to drive home the idea that no one poll is all that consequential. However, days with polls released from competitive states sometimes test that proposition. Such was the case today with new polls from both Colorado and North Carolina. Still, the result was a continued steady state. [And as sure as I'm saying that, you can be certain I would have called anything else an outlier. ...probably.]
Again, meh.
New State Polls (8/7/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
8/6
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
47
|
2
|
0
|
+3.40
| |
Colorado
|
PPP1
|
8/2-8/5
|
+/- 3.5%
|
779 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
7
|
+4
|
--
|
North Carolina
|
8/2-8/5
|
+/- 3.4%
|
813 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
5
|
+3
|
+0.91
| |
1 The poll numbers used from the Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 6% of the respondents. Without Johnson, Obama (49%) leads Romney (43%) by 6%. Using that data would have increased the FHQ weighted average margin to 3.62 in favor of the president.
| |||||||||
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Two polls, two different results. But the tie from Rasmussen and +4 (for Obama) from Public Policy Polling did little to move the needle in the Centennial state where polling had trailed off of late. The common refrain around here in the event of a nearly simultaneous survey releases with differing results is to just take the average of both. An averaged +2 for Obama lags behind where the Colorado weighted average is now, but is not an terribly divergent from it either. It is good to have the data, but it really only confirms what we already knew of Colorado: Obama's slightly ahead there.
North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling has been the only firm other than NBC/Marist since May to show President Obama ahead in the Tarheel state. Every other poll has shown Governor Romney with the lead. Yet, none of those leads is ever greater +5 and most are in the 0-3 range in either direction. This poll is the rare poll to give the president the edge is North Carolina, but the result was well within the range of other polls we have seen in the lone remaining toss up state favoring Romney.
Needless to say, none of these surveys did anything to shift either Colorado or North Carolina on the map or in the Electoral College Spectrum. Colorado remains just on the Romney side of the tipping point -- Ohio -- but continues to be among a group of toss up states that are tilt collectively toward the president at the moment. North Carolina is the lone hold out; a state with a weighted average within 5 points of tied.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
HI-4
(11)
|
WA-12
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(40)
|
MN-10
(182)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(153)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
IN-11
(132)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
SC-9
(121)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
TN-11
(191)
|
NE-5
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
AR-6
(99)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The +5 for Romney from Rasmussen in North Carolina last week took North Carolina off the Watch List and the latest PPP survey with Obama up 3 points puts the Tarheel state back on the list. North Carolina is now within a fraction of a point -- and just barely -- of switching from Toss Up Romney to Toss Up Obama. It also adds a little light red (pink) to a sea otherwise predominantly made up shades of blue.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/2/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/1/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/2/12)
The Electoral College Map (8/1/12)
Weirdly, a recent Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York had Romney ahead 50 percent to 45 percent in Colorado, however, the same poll had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent in Virginia and ahead 51 percent to 45 percent in Wisconsin. Link is http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57488777/poll-romney-leads-in-colo-obama-in-va-wis/.
ReplyDeleteColorado - Three different polls and three different results! Is Romney ahead? Is Obama ahead? Are they tied?
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts? Does history or any intrinsic quality of the state provide any insight?