Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/8/12)

New today were five polls from three states. While none of them really shook up the existing FHQ weighted averages, the continued two-day progression across surveys of Colorado drew the most reaction.

New State Polls (8/8/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1463 likely voters
45
50
4
+5
+2.76
Virginia
8/7
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
48
46
3
+2
+3.01
Virginia
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1412 likely voters
49
45
5
+4
--
Wisconsin
8/2-8/5
+/- 2.9%
1188 likely voters
50
45
5
+5
+5.92
Wisconsin
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1428 likely voters
51
45
4
+6
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
I'm entirely sympathetic to the charge that the Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll released out of the Centennial state today is an outlier. Look, Sesame Street -- as I recall (my kids are well past enjoying those sorts of shows) -- devotes quite a bit of time to teaching kids to choose the item or items out of a group that doesn't/don't match the others. It is a basic skill. And yes, this poll does appear to be an outlier on the surface. None of the surveys that have been in the field in Colorado in 2012 have shown Romney ahead; tied with Obama a few times, but not ahead. The president's share of support in the poll (45%) is in line with others there, but the Romney share (50%) is definitely a high water mark for the governor thus far.

...by three percentage points.

But that is just polling variability -- broader than we have witnessed in Colorado for Romney at this point, but polling variability nonetheless. Again, the true test is to see whether the same sort of result repeats itself in subsequent polling. Of course, that polling is likely to show even more variability across the board with a vice presidential announcement and a couple of conventions.

Virginia:
The surveys out of Virginia today were more of the same. The president leads there, but it is a marginal/competitive edge. The new Rasmussen poll was an almost exact replica of the firm's July poll in the Old Dominion. The new Q-poll, while being within range of other recent polls, departs from the last poll conducted in the commonwealth which showed a tie. Romney's share is largely the same, but Obama's grew by five points over a poll that was in the field just a couple of weeks ago. FHQ won't make much of this because, again, one can fine quirks in just about any poll, and this is just polling noise. In the aggregate the noise favored Romney in Colorado and Obama in Virginia.

Wisconsin:
The two new Wisconsin polls, well, what's really to say? Both were mirror images of each other and were similar to other recent surveys of the Badger state. Call Colorado too hot, Virginia too cold and Wisconsin just right for Quinnipiac. All three states overall, stayed pretty much where they started in the FHQ weighted averages.


That means no change to the map and only a small shift on the Electoral College Spectrum. Colorado and Virginia switch places without fundamentally changing the calculus of how each candidate gets to 270 electoral votes. Obama could do without either state as long as he holds Ohio and New Hampshire,  and Romney needs both barring an uncharacteristic win -- assuming he doesn't swing Virginia and Colorado --  in one of the Lean Obama states. That isn't to suggest that it won't happen, but rather that it is unlikely that one (Lean Obama state flipping) happens without the other (Romney winning in most of or sweeping the Toss Up states).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
VA-13
(288/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
CO-9
(297/250)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remained unchanged by Wednesday's polls.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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