Sunday, September 30, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/30/12)

After a very quiet Saturday with no newly released polls, there were a handful of new ones out today; five more from five states. In keeping with the theme from the Friday post, 80% of the polls provided calibrating/confirming information. But one did not...

New State Polls (9/30/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Iowa
9/23-9/26
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
49
45
2
+4
+2.97
Maine
9/12-9/16
+/- 4.0%
618 likely voters
52
36
--
+16
+14.83
Massachusetts
9/21-9/27
+/- 4.4%
502 likely voters
57
30
11
+27
+20.01
Ohio
9/19-9/29
+/- 2.2%
1662 likely voters
51
42
5
+9
+3.83
Washington
9/26
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
41
4
+11
+13.41

Polling Quick Hits:
Iowa:
There is not a whole lot to get jazzed about in the survey conducted by the typically reliable Selzer firm. That isn't to suggest that this poll is not reliable. Rather, it is in line with other polls that have been in field post-convention. In that span, the trend has been toward the president with poll margin stretching out to as many as eight points. This Selzer poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register, however, is closer to where the FHQ weighted average has the Hawkeye state pegged at the moment.

Maine:
Another day, another Maine poll. The Obama share of support is consistent with the Rasmussen poll released on Friday while Romney's portion of the responses dipped a touch across the two polls. That impact is negligible as the FHQ weighted average stays put in the +14 Obama range. We're talking about a blue state here, folks. That said the congressional district split showed Romney within five points of the president in the second district. That one electoral vote may be borderline competitive in Maine's districted electoral vote allocation (see Nebraska's 2nd district in 2008).

Massachusetts:
FHQ has said this many times, but I'll say it again. The data is nice to the extent we get new presidential line data in any poll testing the Brown-Warren senate race in the Bay state, but it isn't entirely necessary all the same. Massachusetts is blue. Enough said.

Ohio:
The one exception to the calibrating/confirming rule is the Columbus Dispatch poll of the Buckeye state. There appears to be a little bit of a boomlet for Obama in Ohio in the last week or more. The last three polls released there have shown the president up by at least eight points. This Dispatch poll is also the fourth (of the six most recently released polls) to have the president up at least seven points. Now, is this a pattern that fundamentally reshapes the race? From a strategic perspective, a case could be made that moving Ohio off the board makes the electoral math hard for the Romney campaign. But the reality is that this is confirming poll in that it is confirming the movement in the president's direction; that any one of the earlier polls taken alone was not an outlier. This is a different kind of confirming poll, but it is a confirming poll, nonetheless.

Washington:
See Maine and Massachusetts on this one. Washington has had its moments threatening to jump into the Lean Obama category in 2012, but that has never fully manifest itself. The Evergreen state is pretty blue. The new Rasmussen poll of the state does little to deviate from that conclusion.


Looking at the map and Spectrum, what held true on Friday hold true again today. It is a status quo day. The electoral vote tally has not budged. Truth be told, it hasn't moved since FHQ began tracking the state polls back in July. There has, however, been movement on the Electoral College Spectrum. Mind you, this was small movement involving states that are not really in play anyway, but it is movement all the same. Massachusetts traded spots with Illinois. See, a small move, but one worth tracking.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

As for the Watch List, well, on a day when the polls released did not do much in the way of moving the needle, the list remained untouched. It is still all about North Carolina (Florida) and the quartet of Lean/Toss Up states that the Obama campaign would rather like to keep where they are.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.


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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Catch Up Time

As FHQ mentioned via Twitter earlier this week, life (and death) and a not all that unexpected uptick in the frequency of polling releases have formed a perfect storm of delay around here. Very simply, I'm behind. However, FHQ will be in catch up mode this weekend. To the extent I can churn them out, you will see a semi-steady stream of outdated updates to the electoral college map starting with the survey data released on September 20. I sincerely hope to be fully updated by Monday and then rollout a map with redefined (constrained) categories on Tuesday; just in time for the debates.

As a means of review, that will mean:
1) The "strong" category will shift from being states with averages over 10% to those above 9%.
2) "Lean" states will now be those with weighted averages between 4-9% instead of between 5-10%.
3) Most consequentially, "toss up" states will be those with averages below 4%.

Finally, let me apologize for the slowdown in posting and thank you all for your patience as we bring things back up to date.

--Josh


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Friday, September 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/28/12)

The close of the work week brought six new polls in six states. And the take home, to the extent there was one, was that the status quo was maintained pretty much across the board. This was calibrating/confirming survey data rather than information that fundamentally changed the outlook in any of the six states represented.

New State Polls (9/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/25-9/26
+/- 4.0%
500 likely voters
42
46
9
+4
+7.00
Maine
9/25
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
40
4
+12
+14.59
Michigan
9/21-9/22
+/- 3.3%
804 likely voters
50.0
46.2
3.8
+3.8
+5.77
New Hampshire
9/25-9/27
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+4.20
Pennsylvania
9/22-9/26
+/- 5.0%
427 likely voters
49
42
5
+7
+7.24
Virginia
9/24-9/27
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+3.05

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Certainly the results of the Moore poll are far tighter than what we saw from Rasmussen in Arizona just yesterday. However, the smaller poll margin did little to pull the FHQ weighted average out of the Lean Romney territory the Grand Canyon state has occupied throughout 2012. The driver behind the change is likely the inclusion of both Gary Johnson (Libertarian nominee) and Jill Stein (Green nominee) in the poll. Even with two third party candidates added, the poll still had a surprisingly high number of undecideds given how deep we are into the general election campaign.

Maine:
The Senate race in the Pine Tree state may prove to be more interesting, because the race for Maine's four electoral votes sure isn't. Obama has held a consistent polling edge in the state in the low to mid-double digits and that doesn't appear to be on the verge of budging. Blue state.

Michigan:
If any poll on today's list breaks from the overall pattern of consistency, it would be the Gravis poll out of Michigan. At an only 3.8 point Obama advantage, the poll has the gap in the Great Lakes state a little lower than most recent polls, post-convention, have found. That said, this is hardly an outlier. Rather, it merely seems to be on the lower end of the range. Compared to the FHQ weighted average of each candidate's share of support in Michigan, this poll overstates Obama's support by a couple of points and Romney's by about four with a shrinking number of undecideds.

New Hampshire:
At +5 Obama, this new ARG poll of New Hampshire comes close not only to the FHQ weighted average margin in the Granite state, but also matches the median margin of all post-convention polling conducted there. In other words, this one is par for the course. The weighted average ticks up just a hair, but that's about it.

Pennsylvania:
See New Hampshire and add the caveats that 1) Pennsylvania is a Lean Obama state and not a toss up and 2) the FHQ weighted average margin shrunk by one one-hundredth of a point. This Muhlenberg survey was a confirming poll, not a direction changing poll.

Virginia:
FHQ mentioned yesterday that Virginia is one of the few states where the conventions seem to have clearly provided the president with a bounce that has in the time since almost completely receded and settled back into what had emerged as a normal +2-4 point edge for Obama. That was true of the Suffolk poll a day ago and is true of the ARG survey today. Again, this one is a confirming poll. Nothing more, nothing less.


Given the types of polls we got today, there isn't much of a tale to tell either on the map or on the Electoral College Spectrum. Both the overall tally above and the alignment of states below stayed pretty much the same. The only change from Thursday was that Arizona jumped up a couple of spots to a very slightly more competitive position in the Lean Romney category. Of course, it wasn't enough that it made the Grand Canyon state legitimately competitive or brought it close to the toss up category.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Needless to say, with Arizona serving as the big mover of the day -- the only mover really -- and that it did not move into range of the toss up category, the Watch List remains unchanged. Though the list has ballooned to ten states, North Carolina (and Florida) along with Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin continue to be the states to look at most closely. Those five (or six) states will tell us all we need to know over the next five plus weeks (i.e.: Romney solidifying his lead in North Carolina or tightening the screws on Obama in a more stubborn group of blue states).

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/27/12)

Thursday not only brought nine new polls from nine states, but broke from the "all blue" poll day on Wednesday. Overall, there was a mixed bag of results across the states represented.

New State Polls (9/27/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/25
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
42
52
2
+10
+7.36
Connecticut
9/24-9/26
+/- 3.5%
801 likely voters
54
41
5
+13
+12.23
Indiana
9/19-9/23
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
40
52
9
+12
+9.86
Iowa
9/23-9/25
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
46
47
7
+1
+2.86
Nevada
9/23-9/25
+/- 3.1%
984 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.40
New Hampshire
9/23-9/25
+/- 3.1%
1012 likely voters
51
44
4
+7
+4.13
North Carolina
9/23-9/25
+/- 3.1%
1035 likely voters
48
46
5
+2
+0.93
Virginia
9/24-9/26
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
46
44
8
+2
+3.09
Washington
9/21-9/22
+/- 4.6%
625 likely voters
56.4
38.6
5
+17.8
+13.68

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
The Grand Canyon state just never established itself as the toss up state that some thought it would be in 2012. And that is completely understandable given the fact that things have swung back toward the Republicans after 2008. That national swing was equivalent to or slightly less than the combined impact of the Republican advantage in the state and the home state effect McCain had in Arizona four years ago. The truth of the matter is that Arizona looks now just about as it did then and the new Rasmussen poll reflects that.

Connecticut:
The new Q poll in the Nutmeg state is pretty much par for the course. After having narrowed to the single digits in a handful of July and August polls, the margin in Connecticut polling has been consistently in the lower double digits. That is true again in this poll.

Indiana:
After a narrow win in Indiana in 2008, Obama and the Democrats have seen a significant shift/correction there in the time since. The movement in the Hoosier state has been among the largest of any state since the last election and has the state firmly stationed at or around the current Strong/Lean line on the Romney side of the partisan line. Like Arizona above, Indiana is red and not going anywhere.

Iowa:
In Iowa, things remain competitive. The new poll from The Iowa Republican finds Romney in the lead by a point and is largely consistent -- at least in the toplines -- to the only other post-convention poll to find the governor ahead in the Hawkeye state from Rasmussen. Those two polls stand in contrast to the two-thirds of post-convention Iowa surveys showing Obama ahead by five or more points. That balance has pushed Iowa away from the partisan line deeper into the Toss Up Obama category (see Electoral College Spectrum below), but certainly not out of reach for the Romney campaign.

Nevada:
Things are similar in Nevada . There is some polling variability in the Silver state, but one thing is clear there, post-convention: Obama is ahead. In all seven polls conducted since convention season closed, Obama has held an unweighted advantage of about 4.3 points. That isn't all that far from the overall FHQ weighted average for all 2012 polls there. By comparison, this Marist poll slightly underperforms those metrics, but is well within the range of results seen there. The major issue in the race in Nevada is that Obama has not trailed in any poll since a January Global Strategy Group survey. If Nevada is truly in play, Romney's share of support is going to have to show some signs of improvement sooner rather than later.

New Hampshire:
With the caveat that Romney has actually led some recent polls in New Hampshire, the Granite state looks an awful lot like Nevada: in range for Romney but resistant for the most part in the polling conducted there. That said, this Marist poll is a bit rosy from the Obama vantage point. The unweighted, post-convention average level of support has the race at 47-44 in the president's favor. This poll, then, overstates Obama's position while nailing Romney's, which means that either this is just statistical noise or Obama brought home some "should" Democratic votes and/or undecideds coming out of convention season. It is not an uncommon pattern as compared to the trajectory of movement in some other states.

North Carolina:
FHQ has cast North Carolina as a leverage state for Obama in most of the discussions surrounding newly released polls in the state. That is one side of the story -- that Obama forcing Romney to use resources in the Tar Heel state means those resources are not spent in other competitive states -- but the other side is the overall consistency of the Romney lead there. Now sure, there has been some volatility in North Carolina polling. And that has recently given way to a series of polls showing Obama ahead there -- including in this Marist poll -- but that should not push us too far from the overall context. Both candidates are currently holding down positions in the mid- to upper 40s. That it continues to be close in North Carolina is a function comparing the proximity of the candidates to our expectations of where the race "should" be there. North Carolina has not swung back toward the Republicans in 2012 in the way that other close 2008 states like Indiana and Missouri have.

Virginia:
There were a few post-convention blips showing Obama ahead by more than 5 points in Virginia, but that has quickly reverted to the pre-convention 2-4 point level of advantage the president held there. The Old Dominion really has been one of the clear examples of a convention bounce that has begun to dissipate and this Suffolk poll lends some credence to that conclusion.

Washington:
There isn't all that much to get too worked up over in Washington. The outlook has been consistently in Obama's favor in the Evergreen state, and it really does not look as if that is going to change in any meaningful way. Washington is a blue state. Enough said.



Consistency is still the word when it comes to the electoral college map above. There have been some shifts here and there, but the bottom line has remained the same in terms of the overall electoral vote tally. The majority of toss up states continue to tip toward the president and that has the count comfortably to his advantage.

On the Spectrum, the newly added data did little to shake things up. Arizona jumped deeper into the Lean Romney category, Indiana and Montana switch positions, and of greater import perhaps, Iowa and Virginia flip-flopped spots again today. In the case of Iowa and Virginia, the shift is important but does not change the fact that Romney is likely to need both, regardless of position, to get to 270.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
TN-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MO-10
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List has several new members today. Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina jump back on after having left the list at various points throughout the summer. The Indiana movement is less noteworthy than it is clerical. It is a red state. That New Hampshire is trending away from Romney and that North Carolina has slipped back onto the list are important in terms of the electoral college map. Those 19 electoral votes are important for a host of reasons to both campaigns. If New Hampshire is off the board, that is just as much of a problem for Romney as North Carolina being on the board for Obama at this point (even if Romney has consistently held the advantage there).

Outside of the additions to the list, there is no other change to note in terms of category shifts. None of the new polls pushed any of the nine states into a new category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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