New State Polls (9/11/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
9/7-9/9
|
+/- ?.?%
|
993 likely voters
|
44
|
53
|
4
|
+9
|
+7.19
| |
Florida
|
9/7-9/9
|
+/- 4.1%
|
596 likely voters
|
48
|
44
|
5
|
+4
|
+0.55
| |
Illinois
|
9/5
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1382 likely voters
|
54
|
37
|
6
|
+17
|
+20.94
| |
Massachusetts
|
9/7-9/9
|
+/- 3.5%
|
756 likely voters
|
55.4
|
39.2
|
5.4
|
+16.2
|
+16.95
| |
Minnesota
|
9/6-9/9
|
+/- 4.3%
|
551 likely voters
|
50
|
40
|
--
|
+10
|
+10.75
| |
North Carolina
|
9/4-9/6
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 registered voters
|
43
|
53
|
1
|
+10
|
+1.50
| |
Ohio
|
9/7-9/8
|
+/- 2.7%
|
1548 likely voters
|
47.27
|
43.19
|
--
|
+4.08
|
+3.06
| |
Virginia
|
9/8-9/9
|
+/- 2.2%
|
2238 likely voters
|
44.04
|
49.39
|
--
|
+5.34
|
+2.23
| |
Washington
|
9/7-9/9
|
+/- 4.4%
|
524 likely voters
|
54
|
38
|
4
|
+16
|
+12.72
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Public Policy Polling, as it turns out, has been the major polling player in Arizona in 2012. Of the twelve publicly available surveys conducted, five are from PPP. And those polls have generally been favorable to the president. Favorable or not, Obama still trails Mitt Romney in the Grand Canyon state. The president's vote share in this poll is just 1.5 points ahead of his FHQ weighted average in Arizona, whereas this poll shows Romney a little more than three points above his FHQ average there. That is a data point more than anything else, but the simple truth of the matter is that both candidates' positions in this poll are within the range of the preexisting data we have in Arizona. It is a solid lean to Romney at the moment.
Florida:
There has not been a Survey USA poll in Florida since July and since that time much has changed, but nothing much has changed. At least in comparison to the earlier Survey USA poll, Obama has held steady while Romney has tracked up a point. Of course, the polling from other firms has oscillated through the many other polls that have been conducted in between with the overall trajectory narrowing in the Sunshine state. In the aggregate that has pointed toward the slightest of edges for Obama which may or may not make this poll evidence of a bump in the president's direction post-convention.
Illinois:
Meh. Does anyone have Illinois drifting over to the Republican side of the ledger in this election? I'll field that: No, not really. The polling has been clear in the president's home state and the latest We Ask America -- new to Illinois polling thus far this cycle -- survey backs that up.
Massachusetts:
See Illinois, but with the caveat that Kimball has been in the field in the Bay state already this year (last month). That August poll was the last poll conducted there and showed a slightly smaller, but still strong, Obama advantage.
Minnesota:
Now, while in terms of the FHQ color scheme Minnesota may look like Illinois and Massachusetts. It is not. Minnesota is the one upper midwest state that has seen very little polling considering some of its neighbors -- Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- have all been either competitive or trending more that way of late. In July it looked as if the Land of 10,000 Lakes was following suit, closing to a six point Obama lead that represented the smallest advantage for the president in any of the Minnesota polls. Following the Democrats' convention in Charlotte, though, that lead has stretched out again to where it had been in the surveys released prior to that July Survey USA poll. And frankly, this latest Survey USA effort there nearly hits the FHQ average in Minnesota almost perfectly.
North Carolina:
This is an odd poll for so many reason; not the least of which is the fact that rarely is there a poll of North Carolina that has shown either candidate up by more than five points. While it is unusual, it has happened and it always goes in Mitt Romney's direction. That is true in this instance as well, but it doesn't make the poll any less an outlier in the context of other Tar Heel state polling. When you factor in the fact that the sample was of registered -- and not likely -- voters, the ten point Romney lead is even more eye-opening. The registered-to-likely voter shift that most polling outfits are in at the moment is one that is that is seen as advantageous to the Republican nominee. In other words, Obama should gain something from this being a poll of registered voters. Yet, the president is down by more here than he has been in several other likely voter samples of North Carolina. That said, this poll is consistent with the Survey USA poll sponsored by High Point University last week as far as Obama's share of responses goes. However, the Romney share has ballooned to above the 50% mark compared to last week. The former Massachusetts governor has seen that level of support -- though not quite this high -- in North Carolina before, but overall it has been the exception rather than the rule.
Ohio:
If anything can be said about the Gravis Marketing polls in Ohio over the last three weeks it is that both candidates received bumps out of their respective conventions. The race went from a virtual tie in the Gravis poll prior to the conventions to a Romney advantage post-Tampa and then an Obama lead following Charlotte. This poll and the PPP survey released yesterday are both riding a bit above the FHQ weighted average margin in the Buckeye state and both are slightly overstating the candidates' respective shares of support, but both are within range of where the data in Ohio has been. The closing that typified the polling there before the conventions has been reversed. But the question that remains is for how long?
Virginia:
One question that FHQ posed a couple of weeks ago -- or at least one thing to look at when poll watching -- is how various polls from the same firm in different states match up against how those states are aligned in the Electoral College Spectrum. The expectation in Virginia is that it would fairly closely resemble the patterns exhibited in Iowa, Colorado and Ohio. But in looking at the survey released by Gravis from the Old Dominion that obviously is not the case. One of these polls is off the mark, and it probably isn't the Ohio poll above. There have been ties and there have been slight Romney leads (up to +5 once in June), but as was the case with the Civitas poll in North Carolina, those polls have been polling variability exceptions and not rules. Virginia has closed ever so slightly, but this poll is likely an outlier given the boost the president has received in most polls after Charlotte. [Of course, using the same sort of logic, it is hard to fathom how Florida is +4 Obama and North Carolina is +10 Romney across a couple of Survey USA polls.]
Washington:
Washington state is more like Minnesota in that both have similar averages, but has behaved more like both Illinois and Massachusetts in terms of the overall consistency of polling in the Evergreen state. Part of that is attributable to Survey USA being the only pollster with surveys in the field in Washington since July. Mitt Romney has barely budged over that time span in those polls while Barack Obama has seen his support buoyed in the same period (though unchanged since the August survey).
After all those additions, we have stasis on the electoral college map. FHQ continues to be struck by just how little movement there has been since we began tracking the polls here in mid-July. There have not been many category shifts and there have been no shifts across the partisan line. The expectation all along has been that some of these toss up states would begin to move toward Romney (or into his column) sooner rather than later, but to this point -- whether owing to the methodology here (It is less reactive than most) or something else -- that has not manifested itself. The race is still on the 332-206 tally with Obama ahead in all the states within five percentage points in the averages tipping toward the president with the exception of North Carolina. It is still early and the dust is still very much settling from the conventions, but that movement is going to have to set in or begin to set in fairly quickly for Romney to effectively make up the ground in the five states (Ohio through Florida on the Spectrum below) necessary to cross the 270 electoral vote barrier. That and the fact that the race has been so stationary nationally and in many of the most important states is the bad news from the Republican nominee's perspective. The good news is that FHQ has all of those five states within 3.06 points of the partisan line separating both candidates' groups of states.
Even with some outliers above, the line up in the Electoral College Spectrum changed only slightly. Washington and New Jersey flipped slots, but other than that the most consequential shaded with the lightest colors held onto their spots, reconfirming what the prior data had already told us.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
MI-16
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
RI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
HI-4
(14)
|
MN-10
(182)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
MT-3
(140)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
IN-11
(137)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
IL-20
(63)
|
CT-7
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
MD-10
(73)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
CA-55
(128)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(109)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
MA-11
(139)
|
NV-6
(227)
|
TN-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NH-4
(231)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
WV-5
(98)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
WI-10
(241)
|
SD-3
(170)
|
TX-38
(93)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
There were no states added or subtracted from the Watch List today. That group of four states straddling the Lean Obama and Toss Up Obama line is still the group most worth watching. If they collectively or individually begin to move deeper into the Toss Up category, it only bolsters Romney's chances -- or expands his paths to 270. Florida remains the biggest opportunity to see a shake up in the electoral vote tally, but has seemingly moved toward Obama since being very nearly tied in the averages during mid-August.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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