Wednesday, September 12, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

Wednesday brought a flurry of new surveys from Public Policy Polling, but also a long overdue update on the state of the race in Texas. All told there were six new polls in six states. Most were consistent with the picture painted by previous polling data -- at least in terms of overall FHQ categorization of states -- with two exceptions.

New State Polls (9/12/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
9/9-9/11
+/- 4.3%
524 likely voters
57
35
3
+21
+19.22
Michigan
9/8-9/11
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
37
--
+10
+4.72
Montana
9/10-9/11
+/- 3.8%
656 likely voters
45
50
5
+5
+9.01
New Mexico
9/7-9/9
+/- ?.?%
1122 likely voters
53
42
5
+11
+10.43
Texas
9/9-9/11
+/- 4.3%
1004 likely voters
40
55
3
+15
+14.21
Washington
9/7-9/9
+/- ?.?%
563 likely voters
53
42
5
+11
+12.46

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
Take California and put it in the same category with Illinois and Massachusetts from yesterday. The Golden state is as safe an Obama state as those two states were/are and will likely continue to be between now and election day. The pattern has been pretty clear with the president lodged in the 50s and Mitt Romney having gained some traction in the mid- to upper 30s. If California finds its way over to the Romney side of the ledger on election day, it will be a long night for the Obama campaign. And there just simply isn't any evidence to suggest that as of now. Things may be close nationally, but they aren't in California.

Michigan:
The Great Lake state is one of those exceptions alluded to above. Consistently, Michigan has been in the range that puts it right on the line between a toss up or a lean state. But the poll from EPIC/MRA did not give that impression. No, at +10 Obama, it gave the impression that the Charlotte convention and its occasional focus on Michigan/the auto industry bailout buoyed the president's chances there compared to the most recent -- and tighter poll -- from the firm. The reality is that it isn't so much the president's position that is noteworthy in this survey. Obama's share of support is in line with where it has been all along in Michigan. It is, however, Romney's share of support driving the margin here. The former Massachusetts governor's level of support is nearly at its nadir in Michigan polling for the year in this poll. And this follows a period on which Romney had climbed out of the lower 40s to a more recent and consistent position in the mid-40s there. This poll may or may not be an outlier -- FHQ would say that it is -- but if it is not, it is certainly on the extreme periphery of the the data, especially if we factor in the trajectory of recent polling in the state.

Montana:
Changes (September 12)
StateBeforeAfter
MontanaStrong RomneyLean Romney
In Big Sky country, things continue to fluctuate. Overall, Montana is around where it "should" be on the Electoral College Spectrum: huddled around other states it coexisted with four years ago (Arizona, Georgia and South Dakota). Which is to say that Montana is constantly hovering on the line between being a strong or lean Romney state. Partly that is a function of the scant amount of polling that has been done in Montana. But the other part of what is driving the back and forth between those two categories here at FHQ is that there are only two pollsters actively working the state. Intra-firm there is some consistency in the polls over time. Inter-firm, however, there is not. PPP has shown a tighter race in the Treasure state than Rasmussen has. Since PPP has the latest addition, the overall weighted average in Montana has closed some and at this point settled in the lean Romney range.

New Mexico:
New Mexico is similar to Montana in that there have has been some polling variability there that is not typical of a great many states during 2012. The force behind the volatility, though, is different. Instead of it being a function of two polling outlets with internally consistent polling over time, but comparatively inconsistent results, the New Mexico fluctuations are a matter of who is included in the answer set in a poll. If Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, is included, then the New Mexico surveys tend to be closer. But if Johnson is not added to the answer set of the presidential preference question, the margin between Obama and Romney tends to be wider. PPP has typically included Gary Johnson in its surveys of New Mexico, but did this poll for a private client who did not ask for Johnson to be included. That's all well and good. FHQ certainly has no problem with that decision. But this is a good point to highlight the differences in those two types of polls. It is the policy of FHQ to include polling data with Johnson if he is on the ballot in that state. [And he is on the ballot in 37 or 38 states as of my last count.] However, it should also be noted that third party candidates typically overperform in polls relative to the actual portion of the vote they receive on election day. Take, then, the Johnson numbers with a grain of salt.

Texas:
See California, but in reverse. Texas is as safe a Romney state as you will find. Well, that isn't entirely true. Utah and Oklahoma (among others) may take exception to that statement, but Texas is safely red for 2012 nonetheless. The bonus here is that we get an update to what is happening in Texas; not so much to indicate a big change as much as to confirm what we already thought we knew but didn't have any recent evidence to back it up. The one clear pattern in the Texas data is that Romney seems to have consolidated the Republicans in Texas after he essentially wrapped up the nomination back April. The former governor has been over the 50% mark ever since with Obama locking in a share of respondents ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. This poll from WRA is consistent with that finding.

Washington:
Another day and another poll in Washington. The Evergreen state is another example of a state where the candidates have staked out a particular share of the respondents in recent polling and are sticking there. Very much like in Texas -- but reversed -- Obama is comfortably ahead, pulling in the support of over 50% in recent polls while Romney has fluctuated in an upper 30s to lower 40s range. Again, this most recent poll is consistent with that and did not fundamentally shake up the outlook in Washington.


There were a number of new polls out today, and for the first time in a while we witnessed a category change for one state. Montana shifted back over into the Lean Romney category from the Strong Romney category. That changes the map just a touch, but that is it. And while that didn't move Montana on the Electoral College Spectrum, it did reshade the Treasure state there. There was other movement in the rank ordering of states. Texas jumped both Arkansas and West Virginia to a slightly more competitive position, but still very much in the heart of the Strong Romney category. New Mexico and Minnesota also switched places, but both remain on the periphery of jumping into the Lean Obama designation. Finally, the outlier poll forced Michigan to relinquish its spot next to Ohio in the middle -- most competitive column -- in the Spectrum, but it is now even more clustered with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Only eight one-hundreths of a point separate those three in the FHQ weighted averages. If the order here is accurate, those states would very likely move together -- for Obama or for Romney -- instead of splitting up among the candidates on election day. Of course, if they go for the former Massachusetts governor that likely also means he has won in the other toss up states to get there. But that is an uphill climb for Romney as we mentioned yesterday.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
IN-11
(137)
KY-8
(37)
IL-20
(63)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MD-10
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
CA-55
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NH-4
(225)
TN-11
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
MI-16
(241)
MO-10
(180)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(251)
SD-3
(170)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Montana remains on the Watch List but is now within a fraction of a point of shifting back into the Strong Romney category. As was mentioned above, that seems to be largely dependent upon which firm polls the state next. If it is a Rasmussen poll, then Montana will very likely jump back into the safest Romney category. The rest of the list remains intact with Florida and the four lean/toss up Obama states as the ones to pay particular attention to. Bear in mind as you do that polling in most of those states has already kind of dug in to its current position. It will take a sweeping change over a series of polls to change that outlook.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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