New State Polls (9/14/12) | |||||||||
State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California | 9/9-9/12 | +/- 3.5% | 802 likely voters | 55.4 | 33.4 | 6.9 | +22 | +19.55 | |
Colorado1 | 9/9-9/12 | +/- 4.0% | 615 likely voters | 45 | 44 | -- | +1 | +2.78 | |
Florida | 9/8-9/11 | +/- 4.0% | 606 likely voters | 42 | 42 | -- | 0 | +0.64 | |
Michigan | 9/12 | +/- 2.88% | 1155 likely voters | 45.39 | 43.65 | 5.38 | +1.74 | +4.55 | |
New Jersey | 9/6-9/12 | +/- 3.8% | 706 likely voters | 52 | 38 | 9 | +14 | +12.50 | |
North Carolina | 9/13 | +/- 4.5% | 500 likely voters | 45 | 51 | 3 | +6 | +1.75 | |
Virginia | 9/13 | +/- 3.3% | 500 likely voters | 49 | 48 | 2 | +1 | +2.31 | |
Washington | 9/9-9/12 | +/- 5.0% | 405 likely voters | 53 | 36 | -- | +17 | +13.07 | |
1 The poll numbers used from the Survey USA poll of Colorado include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 3% of the respondents. Obama led the two candidate race 47% to 46% over Romney. That would have raised each candidate's FHQ weighted average but because the margin was the same in both versions, the FHQ margin would have been unaffected. | |||||||||
Polling Quick Hits:
California:
The quick hits have been longer of late, so allow FHQ to actually be quick about California. Blue state, strongly on the Obama side of the partisan line.
Colorado:
With or without Gary Johnson, Obama leads in the Centennial state by a point in the latest Survey USA poll there. With the Libertarian nominee on the questionnaire, though, the president's share is below that 49% level at which he has settled in recent Colorado polling. Romney, too, is pushed to the bottom end of his range in polling done of late. That said, this poll is consistent with the last Johnson-included poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in the wake of the Republican convention in Tampa.
Florida:
As I mentioned in the post intended for yesterday, Florida is essentially tied in the FHQ weighted averages (the closest state we have on the board at the moment), and this Consensus Communications poll backs that idea up. The report on the survey from the firm did not relay any information on the number of undecideds or those supporting other candidates in the poll. But at 42% support for both candidates, this one looks like it did not push leaners into either of the candidate totals and/or simply had an uncharacteristic number of undecideds. Take your pick.
Michigan:
In Michigan, the latest poll from Foster McCollum White provides some statistical balance to the +10 Obama poll from EPIC/MRA earlier in the week. Both honestly feel like outliers. However, both of those polls have shifted in the same direction since their last (pre-convention) releases: toward the president.
New Jersey:
The Garden state is a slightly more competitive -- the margin is narrower -- version of California. Romney has consistently trailed by double digits in New Jersey polls. There are some parallels in this election to 2004, but New Jersey looking deceptively close -- as it did in 2004 -- is not one of those parallels.
North Carolina:
Rasmussen has found Mitt Romney ahead in the Tar Heel state by margins that have been slightly larger than some other polls of North Carolina. That may provide a little extra oomph to the Republican nominee's FHQ weighted average there, but make no mistake that Romney is ahead in North Carolina. In the one toss up state leaning in his direction, Romney has had a pretty good week overall in the North Carolina polls.
Virginia:
For as close as Virginia is, the commonwealth really did not receive the amount of before and inter-convention polling that some other states did. That has left us with an incomplete picture there. The Gravis poll from earlier in the week seems to be an outlier (The argument then was that it was hard to see Obama with a four point lead in Ohio and have a five point deficit in very similar Virginia.). The temptation is to say that that poll and the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll cancel each other out, but that likely misses one important fact: Throw out the outlier and the two polls that have been released post-convention out of Virginia show the president at 49%. Romney's share fluctuates, but Obama's is consistent. Sure, that could mean that Obama has no room for further growth, but it could also mean that the aggregate convention impact favors Obama just a little. These numbers are worth keeping tabs on if and when the convention bumps show any signs of decay.
Washington:
New Jersey and Washington are within a half a point of each other in the averages and right next to each other on the Electoral College Spectrum. I think it is safe to say "see New Jersey" and move on.
The map after recalibrating slightly in the last couple of days with category shifts in Minnesota and Missouri remained stationary today. The overall tally remains unchanged as it has throughout the length of FHQ's averaging the polls in 2012. Obama still commands a lead built on the fact that the president leads to varying degrees in all of the toss up states but one, North Carolina. And North Carolina part is not likely to change. There was only one minor change to the Electoral College Spectrum. Michigan and Wisconsin switched places. Michigan is now closer to Nevada in the averages than Wisconsin or New Hampshire, but only about 0.3 of separate that quartet of states as of now. There is some distance between that group and the trio of Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, but the group of four states is not absolutely necessary in a Romney win. Each would provide more cushion for the former Massachusetts governor if he is able to make things more uniformly competitive across the toss up states. The Ohio-through-Florida group of states is essential. The other toss ups beyond that are not necessarily.
The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
VT-3 (6)2 | WA-12 (158) | NV-6 (257) | MO-10 (166) | MS-6 (55) |
RI-4 (10) | NJ-14 (172) | OH-183 (275/281) | GA-16 (156) | ND-3 (49) |
NY-29 (39) | NM-5 (177) | CO-9 (284/263) | MT-3 (140) | AL-9 (46) |
HI-4 (43) | CT-7 (184) | VA-13 (297/254) | IN-11 (137) | KY-8 (37) |
IL-20 (63) | MN-10 (194) | IA-6 (303/241) | SC-9 (126) | KS-6 (29) |
MD-10 (73) | OR-7 (201) | FL-29 (332/235) | LA-8 (117) | AK-3 (23) |
CA-55 (128) | PA-20 (221) | NC-15 (206) | NE-5 (109) | OK-7 (20) |
MA-11 (139) | NH-4 (225) | TN-11 (191) | TX-38 (104) | ID-4 (13) |
DE-3 (142) | WI-10 (235) | SD-3 (180) | AR-6 (66) | WY-3 (9) |
ME-4 (146) | MI-16 (251) | AZ-11 (177) | WV-5 (60) | UT-6 (6) |
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
None of the new data changed the outlook on the Watch List. The group of states within a fraction of a point of switching categories remained the same as it was on Thursday.
The Watch List1 | |||
State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut | from Lean Obama | to Strong Obama | |
Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up Romney | |
Michigan | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
Minnesota | from Lean Obama | to Strong Obama | |
Montana | from Lean Romney | to Strong Romney | |
Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
New Hampshire | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
New Mexico | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
Wisconsin | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction. | |||
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