Saturday, September 15, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/15/12)

Saturday brought new polling data from three very blue states. The conclusion? Each is still either safely in the Democratic column or leaning strongly -- and consistently -- in that direction.

New State Polls (9/15/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Illinois
9/4-9/10
+/- 2.77%
1261 registered voters
47.1
33.8
16.0
+13.3
+18.96
New Jersey
9/9-9/12
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
51
37
12
+14
+12.66
Pennsylvania
9/9-9/12
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
39
11
+11
+7.04

Polling Quick Hits:
Illinois:
Other than the fact that this poll found an unusually high number of undecideds and that the president was under the 50% mark in a registered voter sample in his home state, there isn't much to say about this one. Those are noteworthy numbers in isolation, but the overall pattern has been pretty clear; even in a state where there has been just one poll utilizing a likely voter sample.

New Jersey:
The new addition to the series of New Jersey polls commissioned by the Philadelphia Inquirer greatly mimicked the toplines from the Rutgers/Eagleton poll released from the Garden state earlier this week. Obama simply has not been below the 50% mark in the scant number of New Jersey polls conducted since July. Half of the 12 polls conducted before August saw the president under 50% in New Jersey, but never below 48%. Those are the numbers of a blue state.

Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state is the one state alluded to above that is closer than the others states on today's list, but still not seemingly within reach for Mitt Romney. That is not to suggest that the Republican nominee cannot win in Pennsylvania, rather it is to say that the evidence thus far indicates that Romney faces an uphill climb there in the stretch run. The important factor with a state like Pennsylvania is that while polling there has only really been as close as three points a handful of times, you have to look at these and other polls in the aftermath of the conventions with some level of caution. There has been some movement toward Obama in that period, but the polling this week may be a more important indicator than what trickled out this last week. Will the bump recede and by how much? That question is probably better asked of the Toss Up states, but Pennsylvania is worth eyeing on the periphery (but comfortably within the Lean Obama category).


None of the poll introduced to the dataset today did anything to change the position each held prior to the polls. Illinois and New Jersey are deeply blue and Pennsylvania -- along with Oregon -- has anchored the Lean Obama category all along. On the Electoral College Spectrum, Pennsylvania and New Jersey both were stationary, while a surprisingly close poll out of Illinois closed the gap enough to push the Land of Lincoln down the far left column past both Maryland and California. That is more housekeeping than anything else as Illinois is not likely to drift into anything other than Strong Obama territory.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
MO-10
(166)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(39)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
HI-4
(43)
CT-7
(184)
VA-13
(297/254)
IN-11
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NH-4
(225)
TN-11
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(235)
SD-3
(180)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(251)
AZ-11
(177)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On a maintenance of the status quo day, The Watch List, too, remained unchanged. Florida is still the most likely state to jump the partisan line toward Romney and the four states -- Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin -- on the line between the Lean Obama and Toss Up Obama categories are still plainly worth watching. There is still some distance between those states and the other Toss Up Obama states between Ohio and Florida.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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