New State Polls (9/20/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
9/16-9/18
|
+/- 3.1%
|
971 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
+2.53
| |
Connecticut
|
9/11-9/16
|
+/- 4.4%
|
508 likely voters
|
53
|
32
|
12
|
+21
|
+11.97
| |
Florida
|
9/11-9/12
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
44
|
48
|
9
|
+4
|
+0.68
| |
Florida
|
9/18
|
+/- 2.82%
|
1230 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
4
|
+3
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
9/16-9/18
|
+/- 3.3%
|
898 likely voters
|
50
|
42
|
7
|
+8
|
+1.91
| |
Iowa
|
9/19
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
47
|
5
|
+3
|
--
| |
Massachusetts
|
9/13-9/17
|
+/- 5.5%
|
497 likely voters
|
60
|
36
|
5
|
+24
|
+20.16
| |
Michigan
|
9/15-9/17
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
52
|
38
|
9
|
+14
|
+5.24
| |
Nevada
|
9/14-9/18
|
+/- 3.5%
|
741 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
4
|
+3
|
+4.05
| |
Nevada
|
9/18
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
9/13-9/15
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
9
|
+3
|
+3.29
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/18
|
+/- 2.85%
|
1214 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
9
|
+6
|
+7.10
| |
Wisconsin
|
9/17
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
2
|
+3
|
+5.06
| |
Wisconsin
|
9/16-9/18
|
+/- 3.2%
|
968 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
9/18-9/19
|
+/- 3.4%
|
842 likely voters
|
52
|
45
|
3
|
+7
|
--
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
While the president has staked a consistent claim to the lead in the Centennial state, Colorado has remained mostly stationary as compared to some of the other states around it on the Electoral College Spectrum below. The margin there has hovered in the +2 Obama area for a while now and other proximate states have pushed slightly wider; Virginia on one end more toward Ohio and Iowa on the other drawing closer to Colorado.
Connecticut:
| Changes (September 20) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Lean Obama | Strong Obama | |
| Michigan | Toss Up Obama | Lean Obama | |
Florida:
The truth of the matter in the Sunshine state is that President Obama has consistently held a two to three point lead in most surveys conducted there over the last month. Are there exceptions to that rule? Yes, but this Caddell poll is not one of them and the overall picture is pretty clear as of right now: Obama leads, but not by an insurmountable margin from the Romney campaign perspective. But the consistency of the lead has to be troubling given the dwindling number of days remaining in the campaign. Losing Florida makes the path to 270 all but impossible for Romney. Sure, various pieces can be put together to get the governor there, but they don't make sense given the order of states that has been established.
Iowa:
Polling has been comparatively light in Iowa of late, and the two new polls out of the Hawkeye state offset each other keeping the overall weighted average pretty much where is started. The Marist poll leans more toward Obama and the Rasmussen poll to Romney. Split the difference and what do you have? A slight Obama advantage that is a little greater than but not inconsistent with the preexisting weighted average.
Massachusetts:
Another day, another poll from Massachusetts. Yeah, the Bay state is still blue. Enough said. Moving on...
Michigan:
The Glengariff poll out of Michigan is similar to the UConn poll of Connecticut. It indicates a larger advantage for the president than has been the case prior to the release of that poll. Unlike that Connecticut poll, however, the survey in Michigan is a little high given where Obama has been in most polls in the Great Lakes state and underestimates -- again relative to the other polls released -- Romney's share of support there as well. But in neither case have these sort of numbers not come up for either candidate in the past. Outlier? Well, the poll is in line with the recent CNN poll in Michigan, but more data is needed here to see where the true average may lie.
Nevada:
The polling has not been as spotty in Nevada as it has been in Iowa, but it is not all that far removed from that level of polling either. That is especially true considering how competitive each appears to be. The two polls out of the Silver state, however, do not balance each other as was the case with the couple of polls in Iowa. Instead, both, together, offer a clear picture of the state of the race in Nevada currently. Obama leads, but narrowly. And the president's advantage is one that has drawn closer as more data becomes available. While not that long ago, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin were a very tightly knit group of states in the averages, that is no longer the case. Michigan and Wisconsin are moving toward the president while Nevada and New Hampshire are tightening; moving slightly toward Romney, but with Obama maintaining the overall lead in each.
Ohio:
Little has changed in the Buckeye state. Obama continues to lead. Romney has not led in a survey there since the Gravis poll conducted during the week of the Democratic convention (on the heels of the GOP convention in Tampa). The question is more one of how much Obama is ahead rather than how competitive Romney has been in Ohio. The former overshadows the latter but doesn't dominate it; doesn't make Ohio any less a toss up state. But the weighted average in Ohio is gradually ticking upward as more polls in the 3-7 point range continue to emerge.
Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state just simply isn't on the radar now. Pennsylvania is a Lean Obama state and has shown no signs of budging. Obama is and has been camped out in the upper 40s or lower 50s and Romney has carved out a position in the low to mid-40s. That has been the case throughout 2012 and is the case in the We Ask America poll released today. And while that is not a killer for the Romney camp, that is one less opportunity for them to play offense or to at least force the president to play defense there.
Wisconsin:
It was another multiple poll day in the Badger state and it offered a bit of a mixed bag for the two major party candidates. Again, the margins are less important than the consistency of where Obama is in terms of his share of support across all three newly released surveys. The president is has crossed the 50% barrier in four of the five polls out in the last couple of days and is at 49% in the other. Pulling that down some over the remaining days of the campaign is undoubtedly incumbent on the Romney campaign, but that is easier said than done.
If Michigan and Wisconsin are no longer toss ups -- and neither is in the averages as of today -- that is two less targets for the Romney campaign to make the president play defense. Now, to be sure, the Romney folks are playing offense to varying levels in both states, but if the number of toss ups diminishes to the Nevada through North Carolina grouping of states, that makes it much more likely that the campaigns pour all of their resources into those states and essentially cancel each other out. That is a difficult environment in which for a challenger to make up ground. That is even more the case when it is considered that the only time the polls have really moved in any noticeable way was after the Democratic convention when the Obama campaign seemingly consolidated the Democratic base.
The map obviously sees Michigan jump into the less competitive Lean category and Connecticut move likewise, but from Lean to Strong Obama. Below on the Spectrum, things from a meta view did not change all that much; at least not where it counts the most. The alignment of the toss up states remains the same even as the group has lost a couple of members over the last couple of days (Michigan and Wisconsin). The bottom line is the same as it has been strategically. With the exception of North Carolina, Romney trails Obama in all of the toss up states. And though it has changed somewhat, there is a fairly clear hierarchy to that list. The Nevada-Virginia group is separated from the Colorado-Iowa group is separated from the Florida-North Carolina group. Hierarchy aside for a moment, Romney is going to need all of those states to crack 270. FHQ says that because -- as things are now -- Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada are all likely to break together given how proximate they are to each other. That is a steep climb for Romney but not one that a two to four point shift nationally in the closing days won't correct. But in a cycle without many two to four point shifts that really is a tall order for the Republican.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
MO-10
(166)
|
MS-6
(55)
|
RI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
ND-3
(49)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
VA-13
(288/263)
|
MT-3
(140)
|
KY-8
(46)
|
HI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
CO-9
(297/250)
|
IN-11
(137)
|
AL-9
(38)
|
MA-11
(54)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(109)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MD-10
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(109)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
TN-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
ME-4
(143)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
SD-3
(180)
|
AR-6
(66)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
DE-3
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
AZ-11
(177)
|
WV-5
(60)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Shifting gears to the Watch List, little has fundamentally changed. The list has been pared back some -- now down to just seven states on the cusp of changing categories -- but is largely about the same group of states: Florida and now with the loss of New Hampshire (to a more competitive spot, mind you) the trio of states including Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. The remaining three states on the list are less competitive but are hovering on the Lean/Strong line.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Minnesota
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. New Hampshire, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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