The Electoral College Map (9/22/12)

Though YouGov released its new polling data in a series of the toss up states on Thursday, FHQ decided to hold tight and roll out all 27 surveys from the internet-based polling firm at once (and on an otherwise slow Saturday).

New State Polls (9/22/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.7%	628 likely voters	41	51	4	+10	+7.00
California	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.1%	1361 likely voters	56	39	2	+17	+19.24
Colorado	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	707 likely voters	50	45	2	+5	+2.48
Connecticut	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	634 likely voters	53	40	5	+13	+12.14
Florida	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.6%	1415 likely voters	49	47	2	+2	+0.66
Georgia	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.8%	1020 likely voters	44	51	3	+7	+10.47
Illinois	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.3%	1068 likely voters	59	36	3	+23	+19.84
Indiana	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.9%	658 likely voters	45	50	4	+5	+9.00
Iowa	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.2%	700 likely voters	48	43	5	+5	+2.29
Maryland	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.2%	686 likely voters	57	37	3	+20	+21.04
Massachusetts	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.6%	825 likely voters	55	39	4	+16	+19.86
Michigan	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.5%	1114 likely voters	51	42	4	+9	+5.57
Minnesota	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.7%	816 likely voters	50	42	4	+8	+9.47
Missouri	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.0%	734 likely voters	43	50	4	+7	+7.35
Nevada	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 5.2%	541 likely voters	51	44	3	+7	+4.35
New Hampshire	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 6.4%	340 likely voters	48	42	5	+6	+3.85
New Jersey	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.4%	1040 likely voters	52	40	4	+12	+12.59
New Mexico	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 7.8%	293 likely voters	51	43	1	+8	+10.06
New York	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 2.7%	1403 likely voters	58	36	4	+22	+24.88
North Carolina	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.3%	1060 likely voters	46	48	4	+2	+1.31
Ohio	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.3%	1036 likely voters	47	44	2	+3	+3.30
Pennsylvania	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	1139 likely voters	52	43	2	+9	+7.48
Tennessee	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	694 likely voters	42	50	4	+8	+7.00
Texas	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	1165 likely voters	41	53	2	+12	+13.50
Virginia	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.27%	1047 likely voters	48	44	6	+4	+3.13
Washington	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	880 likely voters	53	39	3	+14	+13.18
Wisconsin	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	753 likely voters	48	47	4	+1	+4.90

We'll spare you the state-by-state rundown.

Changes (September 22)
State	Before	After
Indiana	Strong Romney	Lean Romney
Wisconsin	Lean Obama	Toss Up Obama

The truth of the matter is that these polls are mostly consistent with the picture already formed throughout many of these states. The instances where the color coding for the poll margin and the color coding of the FHQ weighted average margin differ are few and far between (seven of 27 states). That isn't to say that there aren't potential issues with an internet-based poll, but YouGov has been a fairly accurate pollster on the state level over the last two cycles and that seems to be the case here (...at least as compared to the pool of polls in each state represented).

Among the ways -- but certainly not the only one -- to check that statement is to look at how the firm has done here in taking a snapshot of each state that is also true to the rank ordering of states that has emerged over the course of this year. Ohio and Virginia, for example, appear to be in lockstep with each other as the states have been for quite a while now. Michigan and Wisconsin -- two states that have been in a similar position to the aforementioned pair -- on the other hand seem to be "moving" away from each other. Looking at the other toss ups, North Carolina and Florida look to be more in the Ohio/Virginia category as do the pairs of Colorado and Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada. And that underlines the rough hierarchy of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below. From the Romney perspective, North Carolina/Florida form the first layer followed by Iowa/Colorado, Virginia/Ohio(/New Hampshire) and (New Hampshire/)Nevada/Wisconsin.

...or we could just strike all of that and say that Michigan isn't really a toss up and that is what we are seeing.

As for the map, the new polls didn't so much shake up the preexisting order as they did recalibrate a number of states. Wisconsin may have shifted back to the Toss Up Obama category, but the Badger state has been dancing around the line between the Toss Up and Lean categories for a few weeks now. Similarly, Indiana -- though with far less polling conducted -- has hovered with more variability around the Lean/Strong line and has on the strength of a tight YouGov poll slid back into the Lean category while remaining well outside of the president's grasp.

Below on the Spectrum, not much was really altered despite quite a bit of new data. There was some shuffling among the Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois and California group in the far left column and Texas jumped up a handful of spots. Tennessee continues to poll closer than it has voted in many of the last series of general elections. But where it counts -- in the middle column in the toss up states -- things remained just as they have been.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	VA-13 (288/263)	IN-11 (153)	KY-8 (46)
HI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	CO-9 (297/250)	GA-16 (142)	AL-9 (38)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	LA-8 (79)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	NE-5 (71)	ID-4 (13)
ME-4 (143)	WI-10 (247)	AZ-11 (188)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
DE-3 (146)	NV-6 (253)	TN-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Georgia and Indiana come back on while Wisconsin remains but is now on the verge of moving into the Lean category instead of into the Toss Up area. The Badger state along with Michigan and Nevada continue to be states to watch. If Romney can play offense or make Obama play defense there, it may -- may -- make efforts to sway Florida across the partisan line into the red more likely. To this point, though, Florida has consistently been on that edge without switching sides.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Indiana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. New Hampshire, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/21/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/12)

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