Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/23/12)

After loading up on YouGov data a day ago, Sunday was much quieter on the polling front. Six new surveys from four states did little to alter the landscape on which the race for 270 electoral votes is waged.

New State Polls (9/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
9/17-9/19
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
48
47
4
+1
+0.77
Florida
9/20-9/23
+/- 3.3%
861 likely voters
50
46
4
+4
--
Nebraska
9/17-9/20
+/- 3.8%
656 likely voters
39
53
6
+14
+14.05
Ohio
9/13-9/18
+/- 3.3%
861 likely voters
51
46
2
+5
+3.36
Pennsylvania
9/15-9/17
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+6.87
Pennsylvania
9/18-9/20
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
47
45
6
+2
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
To put this in fairly stark terms, there is going to have to be a decided shift toward Romney to break from the +1 Romney to +5 (or so) Obama range that has seemingly lasted for all of 2012. The small advantage the president holds in the Sunshine state is well within reach for the Republican nominee, but the consistency of polling there means that it will take a rather large event or series of events to move the needle.

Nebraska:
Any data from Nebraska is good data even if it confirms what we already knew about the race in the Cornhusker state: It is red and solidly in Romney's column.

Ohio:
Obama continues to lead in the Buckeye state. There have been fourteen polls released in Ohio since mid-August and Romney has led in just one and tie in just one other. Though the margin is higher in Ohio, the same message from Florida resonates here as well. It is all a matter of breaking from the consistency in polling that has emerged.

Pennsylvania:
FHQ wrote a couple of days ago that Pennsylvania is not on the candidates' radars right now and that the publicly available polling backs that up. That is not the case with the two Susquehanna surveys above. Together, both polls represent the closest Romney has been in Pennsylvania since Susquehanna found the race tied back in March. The trajectory of survey data in the Keystone state has been toward the president throughout though. The issue here seems to be that the Romney share of response in these two polls is on the high side given recent polling and Obama's share is only slightly below his recent low point.


For once, both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remained unchanged after the addition of just five new polls today. The tally still stands where it did in mid-July when FHQ began cataloging and averaging the data. The balance tips toward the president by a margin of 332-206 based on the fact that he has consistently held down leads in all of the various toss up states but North Carolina.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
KY-8
(46)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
CO-9
(297/250)
GA-16
(142)
AL-9
(38)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Moving forward, the list of states to keep an eye on -- the Watch List -- is also stuck in the status quo. The trio of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are strategically important to Romney -- if only to make the president play defense -- and all are hovering right around the Lean/Toss Up line. Meanwhile, Florida continues to be perched on another line; just to the Obama side of the partisan line. Those remain the states to watch most intently.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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