The Electoral College Map (9/26/12)

Nine new surveys were released in seven states on Wednesday. In a slew of already blue states -- of varying levels -- the data either confirmed or increased President Obama's preexisting leads heading into the day. Of the most consequence was the fact that wider polling margins in the toss up state represented -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Ohio -- increased the FHQ weighted averages in each.

New State Polls (9/26/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Gravis Marketing	9/21-9/22	+/- 3.4%	765 likely voters	50.2	45.5	4.3	+4.7	+2.76
Florida	Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS	9/18-9/24	+/- 3.0%	1196 likely voters	53	44	3	+9	+1.26
Florida	Insider Advantage/Florida Times-Union	9/24	+/- 4.0%	540 likely voters	49	46	4	+3	--
Iowa	Public Policy Polling	9/24-9/26	+/- 3.6%	754 likely voters	51	44	5	+7	+3.26
Maryland	Gonzales	9/17-9/23	+/- 3.5%	813 likely voters	55	36	8	+19	+20.23
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	9/24	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	55	40	2	+15	+19.50
Ohio	Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS	9/18-9/24	+/- 3.0%	1162 likely voters	53	43	3	+10	+3.66
Pennsylvania	Franklin and Marshall	9/18-9/23	+/- 4.9%	392 likely voters	52	43	3	+9	+7.25
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS	9/18-9/24	+/- 3.0%	1180 likely voters	54	42	2	+12	--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Of the ten post-convention polls conducted in the Centennial state, the president has been under the 48% level of support in only two and above the 50% level in half of the remaining eight surveys. The latest Gravis poll was among that group of four polls and has contributed to the growing spread between the candidates in Colorado. Governor Romney continues to hover right around 45% in most polls while the president has gradually pushed into the upper 40s.

Florida:
As was the case with Nevada and Ohio a day ago, the two polls released in Florida today disagree with one another. Both point in the same direction, but one -- Insider Advantage -- is within the range of polls released of late while the other -- Q-poll -- is a bit outside of what we have come to expect in Sunshine state polls. That is more attributable to the Obama share of support -- 6 points greater than where the FHQ weighted average has the president's support pegged -- than it does Romney's. The governor is right around his weighted average level of support in this Q-poll.  The Insider Advantage poll is a different story; very close to where FHQ has the race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Iowa:
The uptick in polling frequency in the Hawkeye state since the conventions has the average in Iowa moving in one direction: toward the president. Not only has the margin in Florida stretched, but so too has the gap in Iowa. Already having overtaken Colorado on the Electoral College Spectrum below, Iowa's average margin has grow to the point that it has now settled just behind Ohio having passed Virginia as well. Of the five post-convention polls that have been in the field in Iowa, three of them have found Obama north of the 50% mark. Only one other has found the president below the 48% level. Governor Romney, meanwhile, has carved out a position in the mid-40s.

Maryland:
The data out of Maryland is great, but it isn't doing a whole lot more than confirming what we already knew in the Old Line state. It is and will continue to be safely in Obama's column between now and election day.

Massachusetts:
Well, the senate race continues to provide presidential poll watchers with a surplus of data in the Bay state. Unlike the senate race between Brown and Warren, the presidential race is not close. It has, not surprisingly, remained consistently blue.

Ohio:
Another day and another broad polling margin in the Buckeye state. Like the Florida Q poll, this Q poll in Ohio seems to be pushing the envelope. There is, however, more similar data to back up this +10 Obama lead than there was in Florida. But the same phenomenon is at work in Ohio as was in the Sunshine state. What is driving the growth in the margin is an increase in the Obama share of support. Romney's share in this Q poll is right in line with where the FHQ averages have it.

Pennsylvania:
There is not all that much to say about Pennsylvania. The two new polls have the Keystone state exactly where it has been all along: in the Lean Obama category. That said, the Pennsylvania Q poll is fairly consistent with the other two polls from the firm released in Florida and Ohio. There are two silver lining interpretations of that; one for each candidate. The Romney silver lining is that if these polls are right, then Pennsylvania seems to be moving along with Florida and Ohio (that the latter two are outliers). From the president's perspective, this may be evidence that Ohio is closer to Pennsylvania than Florida and that the Sunshine state by extension is an outlier. These are, after all, snapshots, but the closeness of the results across the three states is worth noting.

Despite a series of new surveys from several swing states, there just was not that much action on the map or on the Electoral College Spectrum below. The map is unchanged versus yesterday and the most noteworthy change on the Spectrum is that Iowa jumped past Virginia. Illinois and Massachusetts flipped spots as well.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MO-10 (166)	ND-3 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	IN-11 (156)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	MT-3 (145)	AL-9 (44)
HI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	GA-16 (142)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
IL-20 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (117)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	LA-8 (79)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	NE-5 (71)	ID-4 (13)
ME-4 (143)	WI-10 (247)	AZ-11 (188)	WV-5 (66)	WY-3 (9)
DE-3 (146)	NV-6 (253)	TN-11 (177)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Noteworthy in the shift to the Watch List is that Florida dropped off, having pushed past the 1% level in the averages into the Toss Up Obama area. The Sunshine state is still very much competitive, but that it is moving toward Obama and not Romney puts the former Massachusetts governor in a decided strategic bind. Without those 29 electoral votes, Romney faces a very steep climb indeed to 270.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/12)

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