Tuesday, September 4, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/4/12)

The gavel has dropped in Charlotte on the Democratic National Convention, and on the day the convention got underway, a paltry three new polls were released in three swing states.

New State Polls (9/4/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/31-9/2
+/- 3.1%
1001 likely voters
46
44
4
+2
+2.82
Florida
9/2
+/- 2.7%
1288 likely voters
46.7
48
5.2
+1.3
+0.39
Michigan
8/31-9/2
+/- 3.4%
815 likely voters
51
44
5
+7
+4.37


Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
In the Centennial state, Obama maintained his earlier lead in the latest PPP survey. The poll was consistent with previous surveys in Colorado, but saw Romney gain ground relative to the early August trial heat that includes Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. That did very little to move the needle in a Colorado race that was already hovering around the two to three point range in the president's favor.

[Note: I will add a footnote on the numbers without Johnson when I am not tethered to my iPad here in Time Warner Cable Arena.]

Florida:
The new Gravis Marketing poll of the Sunshine state is yet more, though still scant, evidence that the Tampa convention was no polling boon for Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. The latest survey has Romney ahead in Florida but by a margin that is slightly smaller than it was previously and only ever so slightly closes the gap between the former Massachusetts governor and the president in the FHQ averages.

Michigan:
In the Great Lakes state, PPP turned in something of an outlier compared to some other recent polls in the state that had shown the margin there shrinking. It is not so much the seven point gap that is out of the ordinary, but rather the fact that the survey shows the president over the 50% mark in Michigan. The Romney share on the poll, then, is in line with other Michigan polling data, but the president's share of support is overinflated in the context of other summer polling there.



Despite new data from three toss up states, neither the map nor the Electoral College Spectrum was altered in any way on Tuesday. All three states are competitive to different degrees, but the emerging pattern is that Florida is basically a tie, Colorado favors the president by a couple of points and Michigan is an even further electoral college reach for Mitt Romney (though the gap is drawing closer).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
IN-11
(137)
KY-8
(37)
IL-20
(63)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MD-10
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
CA-55
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
TN-11
(191)
AR-6
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(98)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The Watch List? It too was unchanged on Tuesday even with polls in two states on the list.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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