New State Polls (10/10/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/1-10/9
|
+/- 3.49%
|
653 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
4
|
+4
|
+1.18
| |
Maine
|
9/24-9/28
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
51
|
37
|
10
|
+14
|
+14.71
| |
Montana
|
10/8-10/10
|
+/- 3.6%
|
737 likely voters
|
41
|
52
|
6
|
+11
|
+9.36
| |
Nevada
|
10/3-10/8
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1222 likely voters
|
47
|
46
|
4
|
+1
|
+4.11
| |
Nevada
|
10/8-10/10
|
+/- 4.0%
|
594 likely voters
|
51
|
47
|
2
|
+4
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/9
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
48
|
1
|
0
|
+4.73
| |
New Mexico
|
10/8
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
54
|
43
|
2
|
+11
|
+10.26
| |
Ohio
|
10/5-10/8
|
+/- 3.5%
|
808 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
8
|
+1
|
+3.53
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/9
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
51
|
46
|
1
|
+5
|
+6.78
| |
Rhode Island
|
9/26-10/5
|
+/- 4.5%
|
471 likely voters
|
58.2
|
32.3
|
9.5
|
+25.9
|
+25.07
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/9
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
51
|
49
|
--
|
+2
|
+5.16
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
One of the day's silver linings for the president came from the UNF poll showing Obama up four points. If the margin seems off following the movement toward Romney, post-debate, then that has more to do with Obama's share of support in this poll than Romney's, but only slightly. The UNF survey has Romney running under his established level of support in the FHQ weighted averages while Obama is above his weighted average share of support by about two points. Now, neither candidates' level of support in this poll is out of the ordinary in terms of the polling information we have to date. But -- and this is a big but -- it is inconsistent with the handful of post-debate polls released out of Florida. Of course, it should be noted that this poll was partially in the field in the time before the first debate.
Maine:
The pre-debate survey of Maine from Pan Atlantic SMS is in line with other polls in the Pine Tree state. It is safely blue -- statewide -- but we will need some post-debate data to fully assess the state of play in Maine.
Montana:
It took the debate to bring PPP in line with the other polls -- mostly Rasmussen -- of the Treasure state. Montana threatened competitiveness in 2008, but has shifted back toward Romney and the Republicans in 2012 in a way that has been consistent with the notion of a uniform national swing. The simple truth of the matter is that Montana is solidly in Romney's column. It has bounced around between the Lean and Strong Romney categories all year, but that has been sufficiently far out of the Obama campaign's grasp.
Nevada:
The latest poll of the Silver state may also be a silver lining (no pun intended) poll for Obama, but if that is the case, then it is actually good news for the Romney campaign. Of the four post-debate surveys conducted in Nevada none but this PPP survey have shown the advantage for either candidate outside of the one point range in either direction. If +4 Obama is a good result for the president, then it is indicative of the extent to which his lead there has quickly eroded. The poll margin is consistent with the FHQ weighted average margin in Nevada, but has both candidates above their respective weighted average shares of support. But Obama's share in this poll is above the post-debate raw average of polls. Romney's is right on track.
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire is another example of a state like Nevada where there simply isn't enough data post-debate yet. However, the one poll that we now have from Rasmussen -- the only one in the field completely after the debate -- gives some indication of tightening there. In this case, the picture shows Obama hovering around his share of support established in the FHQ weighted averages. Romney, on the other hand, is overperforming his FHQ average level of support in this poll. That, however, may not be overperforming post-debate. That could be evidence of a new normal in the aftermath.
New Mexico:
Once again, the Land of Enchantment continues to show a margin between the candidates in the low double digit range. That hasn't changed in the most recent Rasmussen poll that found both candidates gaining three points since the last pre-debate survey the firm conducted. New Mexico is a safely blue state.
Ohio:
Ohio continues to be a bright spot for Romney following the debate. Of the five polls conducted since the first debate last week only one has shown the race to be beyond a margin of one point in either direction. Sure the FHQ averages still favor the president, but a +/- 1 in Ohio -- like this latest Survey USA poll -- is a lot better than polls that had the governor down by margins in the 4-10 point range before the debate. That is a marked improvement in a state that could be vitally important in the race to 270. And yeah, that is probably understating the Buckeye state's importance. If Romney is within a point in Ohio, then he is likely in very good shape in the (blue) toss up states below it on the Electoral College Spectrum below.
Pennsylvania:
This Rasmussen poll is more evidence of a narrowing, post-debate margin in the Keystone state. It is in the Lean Obama range like the overall FHQ weighted average margin is, but is down six points since the last Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is still likely out of reach of the Romney campaign, but if it is competitive, that is a state where Romney could really put Obama on the defensive in terms of resource expenditure. But Pennsylvania is still to Romney what North Carolina was to Obama in 2008. If he wins there, he's already won the White House because of other, more competitive states on the Spectrum.
Rhode Island:
Without any disrespect to the Brown poll, it really isn't telling us all that much. Well, it is, but the information is only confirming what we already knew: Rhode Island is a Strong Obama state.
Wisconsin:
At this point, just look up at the discussion for the majority of other states above. Things are narrowing in the Badger state as well, but we still don't have a lot of data to build a full picture there. Wisconsin isn't Pennsylvania to Romney, but it isn't Ohio either. If it has closed to a margin within the margin of error, then Wisconsin is a state that is a valuable leverage state; one that isn't necessary to get to 270, but one that could get Romney there should Ohio fall through. That, however, would mean that Wisconsin would have to close ground on Ohio in the averages. And that is not inconsistent with the overall toss up state weighted average compression witnessed early on in the post-debate period.
For all the talk of narrowing and compression, none of that has manifest itself on either the map or the the Electoral College Spectrum below. The electoral vote count is still unchanged since July and the basic ordering of states has been maintained on the Spectrum where it most counts; in the middle column. Surprisingly given all the polling information added today, none of the states moved on the Spectrum. That has been rare in the past.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NV-6
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(153)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
GA-16
(142)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
ND-3
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
SD-3
(191)
|
TX-38
(109)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(188)
|
WV-5
(71)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NH-4
(251)
|
TN-11
(178)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
One place where the narrowing has shown up here on FHQ is here on the Watch List. New Hampshire slid into position to move back into the Toss Up Obama category on the strength of the tied Rasmussen poll there. Other than that, however, nothing else has changed. Ohio inched further toward shifting off the list, deeper into the Toss Up Obama area. Florida and Wisconsin are probably worth watching in addition to these six states. Both are closing in on claiming spots on the list. Florida to move into the area between both candidates' toss up categories and Wisconsin to close in on the Toss Up Obama category.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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