New State Polls (10/11/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California
|
10/7-10/9
|
+/- 4.3%
|
539 likely voters
|
53
|
39
|
4
|
+14
|
+18.78
| |
Colorado
|
10/4-10/9
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1254 likely voters
|
47
|
48
|
2
|
+1
|
+1.87
| |
Florida
|
10/7-10/9
|
+/- 3.1%
|
1272 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
4
|
+1
|
+0.98
| |
Florida
|
10/8-10/10
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
44
|
51
|
4
|
+7
|
--
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/9-10/11
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1051 likely voters
|
55
|
41
|
4
|
+14
|
+20.41
| |
Michigan
|
10/5-10/8
|
+/- 3.2%
|
1122 likely voters
|
46.0
|
44.4
|
9.5
|
+1.6
|
+5.66
| |
Michigan
|
10/6-10/8
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
49.0
|
42.3
|
8.7
|
+6.7
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/6-10/9
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
6
|
+2
|
+3.99
| |
New Jersey
|
10/4-10/8
|
+/- 4.0%
|
604 likely voters
|
51
|
40
|
10
|
+11
|
+13.00
| |
North Carolina
|
10/9
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
51
|
1
|
+3
|
+1.37
| |
Ohio
|
10/7-10/9
|
+/- 3.1%
|
994 likely voters
|
51
|
45
|
4
|
+6
|
+3.42
| |
Ohio
|
10/6-10/10
|
+/- 2.7%
|
1313 likely voters
|
45.1
|
45.9
|
9.0
|
+0.8
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/10
|
+/- 4.0%
|
750 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/4-10/8
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
50
|
42
|
8
|
+8
|
+6.82
| |
Virginia
|
10/4-10/9
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1288 likely voters
|
51
|
46
|
3
|
+5
|
+2.80
| |
Virginia
|
10/7-10/9
|
+/- 3.1%
|
981 likely voters
|
47
|
48
|
4
|
+1
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/4-10/9
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1327 likely voters
|
50
|
47
|
3
|
+3
|
+5.07
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
California:
Much has been and will be made of the drop in the margin in this latest Survey USA poll of the Golden state relative to the one in September. The others and undecideds were stable and Romney's share of support was +4 to Obama's decline of an equivalent four points. Of course, context matters. First, California is not a Romney flip opportunity. Secondly, and perhaps more to the point, that September poll was right after the Democratic convention and this one was right after the first debate. In other words, both results may be a bit overinflated to the extremes. The true measure of the state of play in California seems to be somewhere in the middle; right where the FHQ weighted average margin has things there.
Colorado:
The series of Quinnipiac polls released today represent a bit of a mixed bag of results for both candidates. Two of the three seem right on target -- and in Romney's direction, mind you -- and Colorado is one of those two. The Centennial state continues to be light blue, but the average is tracking steadily in Romney's direction toward a position on the Watch List to switch over to the Toss Up Romney category. Though the average in Colorado has drawn closer post-debate at a rate that is or has been quicker than in Florida, the range of polling there is starting to look like Florida's did before the debate: some one point leads in either direction with the occasional polling advantage stretching out to as much as four points.
Florida:
Speaking of Florida, the two polls out of the Sunshine state today gave differing views of the race. The Marist polls across the board were a pretty good series of surveys for the president, but in the poll-over-poll comparison to the last Marist poll, not much has changed. Obama still leads narrowly. But in contrast with the Mason-Dixon poll, that poll -- or the lack of movement -- looks perhaps a little off. But, then, again, a Romney +7 is also a bit much considering the consistency of close polling in the Sunshine state throughout the year. FHQ's rule of thumb on a poll of this nature is to ask about the last time a state ended up supporting one party's candidate by such a margin in any recent general election. Bush was +5 in 2004 and Clinton was +6 in 1996, so a +7 is not out of the realm of possibility. What is, though, is the notion that Florida would produce that much of a margin one way or the other if the national race was as close as indications are that it will be on November 6. Stated differently, if Florida is +7 on election day, Romney will be doing pretty well across the board in the states defined as toss ups as of now.
Massachusetts:
Meh, a +/-2 since the last PPP survey in the Bay state in September. I feel like Ferris Bueller after the credits have rolled. "It's over. Go home." The data is fabulous and we can thank a competitive senate race for it, but none of it has changed the fact that Massachusetts is a Strong Obama state.
Michigan:
The post-debate data is still coming in in Michigan (and elsewhere), and not surprisingly, things have shifted toward Romney. But the two polls released today offer differing pictures of the extent to which things have swung back to the Republican nominee. Whereas Michigan was a pretty solid Lean Obama state, it has now shifted into an area on the line between the Lean and Toss Up categories. And if you split the difference between the Gravis and Glengariff polls, that's what you get: Obama +4.15. That seems about right: worth Romney pursuing if only to get Obama to spend resources there, but probably [probably] out of the governor's reach.
Nevada:
| Changes (October 11) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Lean Obama | Toss Up Obama | |
New Jersey:
There isn't really a whole lot to say here. Since the last Philadelphia Inquirer survey, Obama's share of support has held steady while Mitt Romney has gained four points. Both data points hover around where FHQ has the race charted in the Garden state: in the low double digits in the president's direction.
North Carolina:
Rasmussen has over the last week seen little movement, poll-over-poll, in the Tarheel state following the debate. Romney has held steady at a 51% share of support while Obama gained a point. In a strange way this jibes quite well with how North Carolina has been all along: close, tipped toward Romney, but resilient to most external shocks and notions of a uniform national swing from 2008 to now. The battle lines seem to be pretty baked in here in North Carolina.
Ohio:
The trio of polls out of the Buckeye state run the gamut. On the one hand you have a couple of polls indicating a close race with each candidate claiming a lead. On the other, you have a Marist poll showing something akin to an Obama firewall in Ohio. Compared to the other two Marist polls, the margin may be off in Ohio, but the order seems right; that Ohio is on the Obama side of both Florida and Virginia. [Furthermore, that Virginia and Florida are flipped in order relative to where they are on the Spectrum below is more a function of how the margins in each have compressed than any clear indication that Virginia is closer than Florida.] The margin in the Buckeye state is drawing closer, but there is still some scant evidence -- noise perhaps -- that Ohio is still a push to Obama. But the numbers don't lie. There have been eight post-debate polls of the state and six of them have been within a point.
Pennsylvania:
See New Jersey. Stable is the word regarding the poll-over-poll comparison of these Philadelphia Inquirer surveys of Pennsylvania as well. Obama's lead is not as great in Pennsylvania as it is in New Jersey, but it is consistent across these polls though there has been some closing in other polls of the Keystone state following the October 3 debate in Denver.
Virginia:
The across firm comparison of the Q poll and the Marist survey may not be the best approach here. They contradict each other. The Marist polls have shown a closer race in Virginia all along and indicate a small shift toward Romney in the time since the debate. The Q poll also showed a small move, but it was toward the president; a one point change since September. Again, like with Michigan, if you split the difference between the two polls, you end up in the "right" space (...at least as FHQ has it quantified). The average is Obama +2 and the FHQ average margin sits at 2.8 right now.
Wisconsin:
There is some evidence of Romney shift in the Badger state, but we may not have a true sense of that change given the information we are privy to at the moment. The firms that have weighed in following the debates were all firms that had modest Obama leads in their pre-debate polls. The outlets that showed Wisconsin as a double digit Obama advantage have been quiet on this side of the debate. If they close substantially, bringing things in line with where the other pollsters have the race, then perhaps Wisconsin has closed within range of Romney/Ryan flipping the VP nominee's home state. Otherwise the change may level out some as more data from the other polling firms becomes available.
We continue to get more and more data daily, and with it changes to the averages, but those changes have not been reflected on the map or the Electoral College Spectrum. The electoral vote tally is still unchanged, but importantly, Nevada has slid back into the toss up category and New Hampshire/Wisconsin may not be too far behind.
Again, the FHQ formula is conservative. Changes only show up when there is a lot of evidence -- too much? -- to suggest that a state has in fact moved. But therein lies the power of the formula. While it may miss out on minor, daily tweaks to the numbers, when changes do occur they are meaningful alterations. To this point, even though there has been a shift in Mitt Romney's direction following the first debate, Obama continues to maintain leads -- shrinking ones -- in all of the toss up states but one, North Carolina. The degree to which that persists as this race approaches election day given events on the campaign trail is the story right now.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NV-6
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(153)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
GA-16
(142)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
ND-3
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
SD-3
(191)
|
TX-38
(109)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(188)
|
WV-5
(71)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NH-4
(251)
|
TN-11
(178)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
Of the states on the outside (of change) looking in, Colorado is probably one worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise, the Watch List below is the group of states most worth looking for new information on. Florida joins that list today after a small but surprising absence following the conventions. The Sunshine state along with the trio at the bottom of the list are the states of most consequence right now.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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