The Electoral College Map (10/13/12)

For a rather pedestrian Saturday just over three weeks out from election day, there were actually a handful of meaningful polls released that refined our outlook in a couple of states. The remainder offered results that were out of step with where the FHQ weighted averages now stand. All told there were four new polls from four states and FHQ added a dated survey from South Dakota as well.

New State Polls (10/13/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Behavior Research Center	10/4-10/10	+/- 4.4%	523 registered voters	42	40	13	+2	+6.35
Minnesota	NMB Research	10/7-10/8	+/- 4.38%	500 likely voters	47	43	--	+4	+8.63
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	10/12-10/13	+/- 3.3%	880 likely voters	51	46	3	+5	+3.46
South Dakota	Nielson Brothers Polling	8/29-9/6	+/- 4.3%	512 likely voters	38.7	53.9	--	+15.2	+10.73
South Dakota	Nielson Brothers Polling	10/1-10/5	+/- 3.55%	762 likely voters	41.1	51.6	7.2	+10.5	--

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Why not start with one of those polls that is not consistent with the picture built throughout a year's worth of polling? President Obama has led in exactly one poll in the Grand Canyon state in 2012. That was back in April and also came from Behavior Research -- the last poll the firm conducted there. The count then? Yeah, Obama edge Romney in that one too by the very same 42-40 margin. That is coincidence and that's fine. What isn't is the idea that there are still 13% of Arizonan who have not decided in this race. Outlier. Moving on.

Minnesota:

Changes (October 13)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Lean Obama	Strong Obama
South Dakota	Lean Romney	Strong Romney

Up in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, NMB Research weighs in with its first publicly available survey of the cycle; one that differs somewhat from the survey PPP that partially overlapped with this poll in the field. NMB finds a tighter race than PPP did, and one with the narrowest margin in any poll there all year. The poll shifts Minnesota over the Strong/Lean line into the Lean Obama category, but only barely. As FHQ has mentioned in the past instance(s) when Minnesota has ventured over into Lean Obama territory, this jibes well (or better) with our broader conception of the state's place in the overall ordering of states. It is a little to the left of neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin, but "looks better" in the same category with those states. The truth is that Minnesota has hovered on the Strong/Lean line since the thresholds were lowered at the beginning of October. This is more a cosmetic change than anything else.

Ohio:
The latest from PPP in Ohio is one of those polls that doesn't "feel right" given the post-debate shift nationally and in the Buckeye state. However, PPP is not alone in showing Obama north of the 50% mark in the state following the October 3 Denver debate. CNN and Marist have also indicated similar response shares for Obama and leads over Mitt Romney. Of the now nine post-debate polls conducted in Ohio after the first presidential debate, a third of them have shown this type of lead for the president while the rest have the race +1 for either candidate. The point is that while +/- 1 is perhaps closer to the reality of the race, there is some evidence to suggest the margin is still slightly more toward the president. Of course, two-thirds of the post-debate data...

South Dakota:
FHQ won't dwell on South Dakota other than to say that the scant level of polling in the Mount Rushmore state had indicated a closer race there than in some of its neighboring states. That has now been remedied with the addition of a couple of Nielson Brothers surveys with Mitt Romney up double digits. That stretches the average out to over 10 points and brings the state in line with Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota; all states bordering South Dakota.

With the changes to Minnesota and South Dakota, the map has a couple of changes but perhaps not where folks would expect; in the underlying electoral vote count. That tally has remained intact since the very first run in this series of posts back in mid-July. Given those changes on the map, there are some attendant shifts on the Electoral College Spectrum below. South Dakota jumps six positions deeper into the Romney side of the ledger. Again, it is now in line with several neighboring states. Arizona, on the strength of the one outlier poll, drew closer and is now the closest of the Lean Romney states. Granted, none of those states is within reach for the president. In fact, the three lean states that are left on Romney's side have all been stationed there with little or no movement for quite a while now. The only other state that might have moved was Minnesota. And while it is shaded differently than it was, the Land of 10,000 Lakes holds the line in between New Mexico and Oregon.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	MT-3 (159)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	IN-11 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	GA-16 (145)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	SD-3 (129)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	ND-3 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (109)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	WV-5 (71)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NH-4 (251)	TN-11 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

While Minnesota did not change slots on the Spectrum, it has shifted on the Watch List. Instead of being on the Strong Obama state with the narrowest margin, Minnesota is now the Lean Obama state with the widest margin. It continues to hover on that line. Further south, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio are all closer states that bear watching as the race approaches the three week mark.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Indiana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/12)

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2012 Debates: Vice Presidential Debate Open Thread

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