Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/14/12)

In the four Sunday poll releases from four states there was not a whole lot at which to look. Of the four states, only one -- Florida -- is even remotely competitive. The other three are all in the Strong category in one direction or another and one -- Idaho -- is like Hawaii and Rhode Island were a week ago, but in the opposite direction: an afterthought in the presidential race.

But hey, it is always nice to have data to back that up.

New State Polls (10/14/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/12-10/14
+/- 3.4%
791 registered voters
48
49
3
+1
+0.74
Georgia
10/8-10/11
+/- 5.0%
--- likely voters
43
51
5
+8
+10.01
Idaho
10/8-10/10
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
27
63
--
+36
+34.50
New Mexico
10/9-10/10
+/- 3.8%
658 likely voters
49
39
5
+10
+10.24

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
Just yesterday FHQ was commenting on the preponderance of +1 margins in Ohio polling. Before the first presidential debate that had been the case in Florida as well. Since that time, however, the margins have drifted in varying degrees toward Romney. The raw average of the eight post-debate polls in Florida is Romney +1.875 with the median being Romney +2.5. The PPP survey above falls below both, post-debate, and while the data point may feel like something from the period before the October 3 debate, the poll-over-poll shift from the last PPP survey was +3 toward the former Massachusetts governor. And that is pretty consistent with the debate shift overall.

Georgia:
Up north of Florida in the Peach state, things are pretty settled. The Romney +8 from the AJC is certainly more in line with the state of the race for Georgia's 16 electoral votes than the last poll from Insider Advantage (Romney +21). This one nailed Romney's share of support; at least as compared to the FHQ weighted average for the governor. But it was slightly bullish on Obama's share of support relative to the FHQ measure. A strong red state is a strong red state, though.

Idaho:
Speaking of strong red states, the Gem state looks like it is safely in the Romney column. The only linger question may be whether Obama can best the 28% Al Gore garnered in Idaho in 2000. Obama is threatening.

New Mexico:
New Mexico in 2008 and 2012 just was not/has not been the toss up state it was in 2000 and 2004. It is perhaps strange to link the two, but New Mexico is to Mitt Romney what Georgia is to Barack Obama. Both are strong states for their respective candidates and really haven't shown any indication in the 2012 polls of the contrary. On a slightly different note, when we compare this poll from the Albuquerque Journal to the September poll the paper sponsored, Obama actually gained five points relative to Romney. Most of that change was between the undecideds and Obama. Former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson, like Romney stayed pretty stable, only losing a point since the last poll.


Typically one toss up state poll and three strong state polls together are not a recipe for change, and that is the case with the polls released today. The map remained unaltered as did the Electoral College Spectrum. Somewhat surprisingly for sporadically surveyed strong states, there was no shuffling on the Spectrum. Georgia and New Mexico held their lines and Idaho didn't really have anywhere to go. Even a +36 couldn't push the average past Wyoming or Utah. Florida, meanwhile, has dug into its spot on the Obama side of North Carolina in the order, but it is tracking toward the Romney side of the partisan line.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
IN-11
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SD-3
(129)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List did not witness too much change either. Georgia inched right up to the line, but did not push on to the list. Statistically, Oregon made the cut even without a new poll. The average there eased just north of the 8% mark and is on the list. The Beaver state is one of those, like, say, Minnesota, where it might be nice to have some post-debate data. Things have likely closed some there as elsewhere. That said, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio are still the half of this list most worth watching. How and if they shift has implications for the ultimate electoral college calculus if not breakdown on election night.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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