Piggybacking on the comment FHQ led with yesterday, the small window of time between the vice presidential and second presidential debate perhaps triggered a bit of a slowdown over the weekend from a number of polling firms. But we did get eight polling releases out of eight states today; the same number as a day ago and not that many less than Tuesday a week ago. Regardless of the frequency, the outlook was much the same: the race has closed following the first debate. And that appears to have plateaued some, settling into a new normal heading into the next regularly scheduled potential shock to the system. What impact will that second debate have moving forward.
New State Polls (10/16/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
10/15
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1206 registered voters
|
47
|
48
|
4
|
+1
|
+1.69
| |
Indiana
|
10/10-10/11
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
41
|
54
|
4
|
+13
|
+10.58
| |
Iowa
|
10/15
|
+/- 2.6%
|
1499 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
4
|
+3
|
+2.77
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/10
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
57
|
42
|
1
|
+15
|
+20.12
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/12-10/14
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 registered voters
|
47
|
47
|
4
|
0
|
+3.93
| |
New Jersey
|
10/10-10/14
|
+/- 2.7%
|
1319 likely voters
|
51
|
43
|
5
|
+8
|
+12.61
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/12-10/14
|
+/- 2.5%
|
1519 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
3
|
+4
|
+6.63
| |
Washington
|
10/12-10/14
|
+/- 4.3%
|
543 likely voters
|
54
|
40
|
3
|
+14
|
+14.01
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
FHQ has made no bones about how well the weighted average is reacting to the slew of post-debate data in the Centennial state. It is lagging. Period. But I don't think it is by that much. The weighted average margin has now drawn down to about a point and a half for the president. The raw average of post-debate polling would have Romney up by a little under a point while the median of post-debate Colorado polling is Romney +1. It is reasonable at this point to say that Colorado is hovering around the partisan line now; just behind Florida where FHQ has it.
Indiana:
One thing that can be said of the Hoosier state in 2012 is that it is not a toss up as it became late in the 2008 race. And with polls showing Romney up double digits or close to it, that isn't going to change late in 2012. Both candidates have gained support since the last Rasmussen poll from late July/early August and that is simply a function of undecideds deciding. This isn't 2004 -- when Bush bested Kerry by around 20 points in Indiana -- but Indiana has shifted back toward the Republicans in 2012 (relative to 2008) a bit more than some other states.
Iowa:
Two days in a row now there have been polling releases from the Hawkeye state. Still, the two represent two-thirds of the post-debate polling in Iowa. That just isn't that much. The poll-over-poll comparisons in the pre- to post-debate polling from ARG showed a seven point shift to Romney. The comparison using Rasmussen surveys shows a five point swing to the president. We Ask America was also in the field both immediately before and now after the first debate in Denver and basically splits the difference in terms of the shifts in the other two sets of polls; a one point shift toward Romney. Obama gained a point relative to his share in the pre-debate survey and Romney added a couple of points. But there is still room for more data in Iowa.
Massachusetts:
Well, on the one hand, here is some more data on the presidential race in the Bay state. On the other, it really isn't doing a whole lot for us. Since the last Rasmussen survey both candidates have added a couple of points to their shares of support, but the Obama +15 margin remains. ...as does the dark blue shade for the state on the map below.
New Hampshire:
| Changes (October 16) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Lean Obama | Toss Up Obama | |
New Jersey:
New Jersey is no different from the rest of the nation. If the national and state level polls are drawing closer, then it stands to reason that we would see at least some narrowing in the polling conducted post-debate in the Garden state. This Q poll seems to provide some evidence of that. It seems to be evidence of it until one considers that the previous poll of the state from the firm in between the two conventions found pretty much the same thing. In fact, Romney's share of support in the survey has trailed off by a point while Obama held steady at a 51% share. But this is an interesting comparison; the inter-convention period to the post-debate period. Some comparisons have been drawn between those two in terms of trying to quantify just how large an impact the Democratic convention in tandem with, perhaps, the fallout from Romney's 47% comments. If the first debate erased that post-convention bounce for the president, here is some proof.
Pennsylvania:
Post-debate, Quinnipiac has Pennsylvania around where both Rasmussen and Muhlenberg have the race: in the +4-5 range for Obama. There are a couple of other polls with the margin slightly higher, and together with this data -- in concert with all the 2012 polling there -- have the FHQ weighted average margin just north of that range, but narrowing somewhat. This Q poll shows an eight point shift in the margin since the September Q poll of the Keystone state. And that was an zero-sum shift between the candidates poll-over-poll; +4 Romney, -4 Obama.
Washington:
Par for the course on Washington. The latest Survey USA poll showed some movement toward Romney. Obama's share dropped a couple of points and Romney's rose by four since the September poll of the Evergreen state from the firm. That 20 point gap was a bit over where the established FHQ weighted average had been. This one isn't.
Perhaps most notably, but not all that surprisingly given changes elsewhere, New Hampshire slides back into the Toss Up Obama category after a brief post-convention stint in the Lean Obama area. That shifts those not inconsequential four electoral votes into a more vulnerable position from the Obama campaign perspective. It is not as if those have been off the Romney board, but they are becoming more attainable for the governor following the the polling changes triggered by the first debate (...though the numbers were beginning to track back just before October 3). New Hampshire is one of those states that becomes more important if Romney is unable to swing Ohio back into the red. It is an important electoral college piece in tandem with, say, Wisconsin or Iowa and/or Nevada. [This assumes Romney is able to push the partisan line up the Electoral College Spectrum to encompass Florida, Colorado and Virginia. It also assumes that if the order below is followed that Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all jump Ohio in the order.]
The New Hampshire change shuffles up the inter-category electoral vote tally on the map. The contraction of the average in the Granite state also pushes it just past Nevada next to Ohio on the Spectrum. The only other change on the Spectrum was that Indiana and Georgia flipped positions. But both are well into the Romney column and not decisive chips in the effort to cobble together 270 electoral votes.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
MT-3
(159)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(140)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
SD-3
(129)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
ND-3
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(109)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
TN-11
(180)
|
WV-5
(71)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MO-10
(169)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The same two states that moved above are the same two states involved in the changing Watch List today. Indiana moves off the list and New Hampshire -- once a lean state on the cusp of moving into the toss up category -- is now in the Toss Up Obama category but within a fraction of a point of being back in the lean area. However, the trajectory of the polling in the Granite state following the first debate does not have the average tracking back in that direction.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Minnesota
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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