In all there were 25 new polls from 25 states; down from the 27 surveys from last month. New Hampshire and New Mexico were not included this time around most likely because the already small sample sizes from September fell victim to panel attrition in October.
New State Polls (10/17/12) -- YouGov
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.4%
|
469 likely voters
|
43
|
52
|
3
|
+9
|
+6.58
| |
California
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 3.5%
|
1169 likely voters
|
58
|
39
|
1
|
+19
|
+18.80
| |
Colorado
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.3%
|
527 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
5
|
+3
|
+1.73
| |
Connecticut
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.5%
|
434 likely voters
|
53
|
39
|
5
|
+14
|
+12.07
| |
Florida
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.0%
|
1244 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
2
|
+1
|
+0.71
| |
Georgia
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.5%
|
776 likely voters
|
44
|
52
|
3
|
+8
|
+9.70
| |
Illinois
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 3.9%
|
850 likely voters
|
58
|
38
|
3
|
+20
|
+19.85
| |
Indiana
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.6%
|
495 likely voters
|
41
|
53
|
3
|
+12
|
+10.85
| |
Iowa
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.1%
|
545 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
3
|
+4
|
+2.84
| |
Maryland
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.2%
|
498 likely voters
|
58
|
37
|
4
|
+21
|
+21.03
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.9%
|
669 likely voters
|
55
|
36
|
5
|
+19
|
+19.97
| |
Michigan
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 3.9%
|
895 likely voters
|
52
|
42
|
4
|
+10
|
+5.87
| |
Minnesota
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.2%
|
683 likely voters
|
52
|
44
|
3
|
+8
|
+8.56
| |
Missouri
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.9%
|
546 likely voters
|
42
|
52
|
4
|
+10
|
+7.33
| |
Nevada
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 6.7%
|
358 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
3
|
+5
|
+4.09
| |
New Jersey
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.1%
|
770 likely voters
|
54
|
41
|
3
|
+13
|
+12.26
| |
New York
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 3.2%
|
1142 likely voters
|
59
|
35
|
4
|
+24
|
+24.78
| |
North Carolina
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 3.9%
|
810 likely voters
|
48
|
49
|
2
|
+1
|
+1.30
| |
Ohio
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.8%
|
851 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
2
|
+4
|
+3.48
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.3%
|
966 likely voters
|
51
|
44
|
4
|
+7
|
+6.64
| |
Tennessee
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 5.0%
|
484 likely voters
|
43
|
52
|
4
|
+9
|
+7.73
| |
Texas
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.5%
|
957 likely voters
|
41
|
55
|
2
|
+14
|
+14.69
| |
Virginia
|
9/7-9/14
|
+/- 4.0%
|
742 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
6
|
+1
|
+2.52
| |
Washington
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.3%
|
747 likely voters
|
56
|
39
|
3
|
+17
|
+13.51
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/4-10/11
|
+/- 4.9%
|
638 likely voters
|
51
|
47
|
2
|
+4
|
+4.90
| |
Again, as was the case in the September write up of the original YouGov wave, FHQ will spare you a state-by-state rundown. We'll provide you with some overall impressions. All of the interviews were done in a window that fell just after the first debate in Denver, so the expectation is that we should see some narrowing in the race. And while that is true in some cases in the poll-over-poll comparisons, it is not a trend that affected each state equally or at all.
Looking at the toss up states and Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- ten states in all -- none were static as compared to last month. However, only half of those ten states saw a greater than one point shift since September. The margins in Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia all contracted in a way that was favorable to Mitt Romney. The remainder, Wisconsin, actually moved more than a point -- three, in fact -- toward the president. Regardless, that sort of shift -- in the one to four point range -- is usually not a recipe for significant change in the FHQ weighted averages.
And none of the data from the 25 states represented did anything to alter the map or the underlying electoral vote tally. There were a couple of changes to the Electoral College Spectrum, but those only occurred in states that were outside of the two candidates' toss up categories. Tennessee and Missouri switched places in the Lean Romney area and the average in Indiana after the addition of this poll bumped the Hoosier state past South Dakota, deeper into the Romney column.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
MT-3
(159)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
SD-3
(140)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
IN-11
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
ND-3
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(109)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
WV-5
(71)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List, too, was mostly unchanged. It welcomed Georgia back into the fold, but that is not all that consequential. States -- especially those on the Romney side of the partisan line -- that are hovering around the Strong/Lean line are just too far out for either candidate to reasonable sway in the remaining time before the election. So, Georgia is back on the Watch List, but there are other states below that are more worthy of a regular glance than the Peach state. Namely, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Minnesota
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
| |||
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