Friday, October 19, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/19/12)

For as many polls that were released on Friday -- 19 surveys from 15 states -- there just weren't that many changes to the steady state that has been FHQ's look at the electoral college. However, other than an Ohio bright spot for the president, this was a good Romney polling day.

New State Polls (10/19/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
10/11-10/15
+/- 5.1%
696 likely voters
53
38
5
+15
+18.51
Florida
10/14-10/16
+/- 3.4%
828 likely voters
47
44
10
+3
+0.53
Florida
10/17-10/18
+/- 3.0%
1215 likely voters
45
48
6
+3
--
Florida
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.0%
681 likely voters
48
49
2
+1
--
Florida
10/18
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
46
51
2
+5
--
Iowa
10/17-10/19
+/- 3.3%
869 likely voters
48
49
4
+1
+2.92
Maryland
10/11-10/15
+/- -.-%
843 likely voters
60
36
4
+24
+21.06
Missouri
10/17
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
43
54
3
+11
+7.54
Nevada
10/15-10/17
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
51
43
--
+8
+4.26
New Hampshire
10/17-10/19
+/- 3.0%
1036 likely voters
48
49
3
+1
+3.51
New Jersey
10/12-10/18
+/- 3.5%
811 likely voters
53
38
--
+15
+12.53
New Jersey
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.2%
577 likely voters
54
40
4
+14
--
North Carolina
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
47
44
--
+3
+1.31
Ohio
10/17-10/18
+/- 3.0%
1131 likely voters
46
43
10
+3
+3.40
Oregon
10/16-10/18
+/- 4.2%
579 likely voters
49
42
5
+7
+7.65
Pennsylvania
10/11-10/13
+/- 2.64%
1376 likely voters
45
49
2
+4
+6.30
Virginia
10/18
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
47
50
2
+3
+2.33
Washington, DC
10/12-10/14
+/- 2.8%
122 likely voters
88
8
--
+80
+80.25
Wisconsin
10/18
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
50
48
--
+2
+4.84

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
The pattern is not really changing in the Golden state. Obama's share of support in recent polling has settled into an area in the mid- to upper 50s while Romney has consistently nailed down about 2 of every 5 California poll respondents. It's a blue state, folks.

Florida:
If California is settled, Florida is not. Well, Florida isn't to the same extent anyway. The FHQ weighted average is still ever so slightly pointed in Obama's direction, but it is tracking downward closer to parity between the two candidates, or perhaps more accurately, a Romney lead. Of the 14 October polls conducted in the Sunshine state, Mitt Romney has held the advantage in 11 of them. Most of those leads have been on the smaller side, but the trend is clearly in the governor's direction as evidenced by the quartet of Friday polling releases.

Iowa:
The day after a Marist poll showed the president's lead in the Hawkeye state nudging up to six points, PPP finds a dead heat, but one with a slight edge to Romney. In surveys following the first debate in Denver, Obama had continued to maintain a lead in most polls. [There was a tie in the one post-debate ARG survey.] But Romney has pulled ahead in the first non-partisan survey conducted since a mid-September Rasmussen poll. The post-debate picture in Iowa has been a closer, nearly tied race and this poll does little to break from that trend other than indicating a Romney lead. Since the immediately prior PPP survey, Romney has gained five points and Obama has lost three.

Maryland:
See California, but with a lighter supply of polling data. The WaPo poll shows a not too terribly uncharacteristic (or surprising) 20+ point lead for Obama. That is consistent with both electoral history and the handful of 2012 polls that have been in the field in the Old Line state. It's blue. Moving on...

Missouri:
If Maryland is blue, Missouri is red; albeit a lighter shade. There was some variability in the numbers coming out of the Show Me state around the time of the Todd Akin comments but that has settled down in the time since. Missouri is a solid Lean Romney state and the current Rasmussen poll only bolsters that position.

Nevada:
Mark Mellman may have been right about the Harry Reid/Sharon Angle senate race in the Silver state in 2010, but an Obama +8 seems out of place at the moment given the polling data we are privy to right now. Regardless of the margin (It seems to be more a function of Romney's share of support.), Obama's consistent proximity to the 50% mark is noteworthy. Obama has not been below the 47% level in any post-debate (Denver) poll. That gives Romney very little margin for error coming down the home stretch.

New Hampshire:
The same can be said of New Hampshire as well, but perhaps not quite to the same degree. There is less data from the Granite state then in Nevada following the first debate, but Obama appears to be well positioned in New Hampshire as well. The catch is that Romney is in a comparatively better spot -- relative to Nevada -- in New Hampshire as the PPP above indicates. In fact, the governor has a lead of nearly a point in the raw average of post-debate polling in the Granite state. That has the FHQ weighted average for New Hampshire on the verge of passing Ohio (...something FHQ discussed in some detail earlier in the week). Romney simply has less ground to make up in New Hampshire.

New Jersey:
See California and Maryland. A couple of new polls show Obama ahead by a margin somewhere in the mid-teens in the Garden state. With just over two weeks to go, that's out of Romney's reach.

North Carolina:
If New Jersey is out of Romney's reach, North Carolina is out of the president's. ...despite this positive poll from Grove Insight. The movement this cycle is against the president (or at least the baselines set in 2008), and North Carolina has been the one toss up state to consistently enough favor Mitt Romney. The Tarheel state remains close, but not close enough. It looks likely to flip back into the red officially on November 6.

Ohio:
The two FOX polls out today seem about right. Florida is a +3 for Romney and Ohio is a +3 for Obama. Unlike in Florida, though, the Ohio number pretty closely resembles the FHQ weighted average margin in the Buckeye state. That number, in turn, is awfully close to the raw average of post-debate polling in Ohio; just a hair over to points. The president continues to hold the lead in Ohio through the tightening that we have witnessed more clearly in some other toss up states.

Oregon:
The narrow five point lead the president held in Washington earlier in the week had FHQ calling for an update in Oregon. Survey USA delivered and the president still has a lead that keeps the Beaver state firmly lodged in the Lean Obama category. The only drawback to that is the fact that Survey USA has done the majority of the polling work in Oregon in 2012. We just don't have any other comparison points outside of a couple of blips from PPP.

Pennsylvania:
This is the first lead Romney has held in a Pennsylvania poll since Susquehanna also showed the governor ahead in a February survey. The firm did seem to be out ahead of the movement in Romney's direction in the Keystone state a week ago -- and this one may also be prophetic -- but Romney +4 there looks a little off. It is a result that is well within the realm of possibility/probability given random sampling, but it is an outlier considering the other polling information we have in Pennsylvania. Tighter? Sure, but not tipped toward Romney.

Virginia:
Rasmussen had Romney up three in its update to its poll last week. That is not a big change. The governor gained a point over last week and the president held steady. Since the first debate, the candidates have traded small leads in the polls that have been conducted and released. FHQ has things favoring Obama in the weighted averages, but that may be overstating the matter given the post-debate polling. The raw average of polls over that time have Obama and Romney knotted at 47% and some change. [Romney holds a 0.1% lead in that average.] That has had the FHQ weighted tracking down, but tracking down more slowly than if the polling had broken more clearly toward Romney. And by "more clearly" I mean consistently showing a Romney lead as was the case in the Florida polling above. What's clear in Florida is not quite so clear in Virginia.

Washington, DC:
Hmm. Speaking of clear, it seems plainly clear that Obama has an impenetrable margin in the District. ...not that that is surprising. There's a reason DC is only an asterisk on the Electoral College Spectrum below: It overwhelmingly favors the Democratic candidate. That isn't any less different in 2012 than in 1972 or 1984 when even in the face of Republican electoral college routs, DC went for the Democratic nominee.

Wisconsin:
Has the race for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes drawn closer in the period since the first presidential debate? Yes, it has. However, Obama has yet to relinquish the lead in any poll of the Badger state during that time. In fact, this Rasmussen poll looks a lot like the raw averages of the polls since the first debate. Obama leads by a couple of points and is hovering around the 50% mark in the state. Minus the handful of outlier polls, Wisconsin looks an awful lot like Nevada right now: tight but giving the president a slight competitive advantage.


Oddly -- or perhaps not so oddly -- enough, all the new data above yielded very little in the way of changes to the FHQ electoral college outlook. The map, the tally and the Electoral College Spectrum did not change at all. There are some hints at movement among the most competitive states, but that has yet to manifest itself in any way. More or less, we continue to see the compression of averages that began in the time just before and obviously following the first debate in Denver. Virginia, Colorado and Florida are closing in on the partisan line in a very real way and New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- as the next wave of states for Romney to gain on in the Spectrum -- are recalibrating somewhat among themselves. As was mentioned above, New Hampshire is closing in on Ohio in the averages. Iowa also is hovering right at about a three point lead for the president.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List witnessed the only distinct change today. Both Iowa and Oregon dropped off. Oregon is now solidly within the Lean Obama area and Iowa slipped back into the Toss Up Obama category (and rightfully so given the data to which we have access). Of those on the list, Florida and the final four states merit watching. And any poll from Colorado or Virginia is worthy as well. There has been some fairly even trading of leads between the two candidates in those two states and if a pattern emerges in the direction of one candidate or the other, it may be telling.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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