Saturday, October 20, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/20/12)

If Friday was a good polling day for Mitt Romney, then Saturday has been a good day for President Obama. Now, one would have to define "good day" as meaning Obama was leading, but leading by only rather tenuous margins in three of the four toss up states where surveys were released today. In all there were six new polls that were made public:

New State Polls (10/20/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/16-10/18
+/- 3.4%
842 likely voters
48
42
10
+6
+0.64
Florida
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.1%
600 likely voters
47
46
5
+1
--
North Carolina
10/12-10/13
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
45
49
--
+4
+1.40
Ohio
10/18-10/19
+/- 2.2%
1943 likely voters
47
47
6
0
+3.27
Ohio
10/18-10/20
+/- 4.3%
523 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
--
Virginia
10/18-10/19
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
49
47
4
+2
+2.32

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
Well, FHQ will dispense with that Zogby poll right off the bat. It's an outlier. Moving on... The Survey USA poll looks to be the Obama side bookend on the realistic range of numbers we have seen out of the Sunshine state since the first debate. If that is the best Obama can do -- in a poll -- then Florida, despite the closing FHQ weighted average that still favors the president, is an uphill climb. The post-Denver raw average of polls has Romney up by about three-quarters of a point.

North Carolina:
In the Old North state, the Tel Opinion survey conducted on behalf of the North Carolina Republican Party is a bit more toward Romney than either the FHQ weighted average (+1.40) or raw average of post-Denver polling (+1.7), but is indicative of the territory into which the polling here seems to be headed (...or more accurately, staying).

Ohio:
The perennial toss up and constant 2012 victory line/tipping point state has tightened up. The FHQ weighted average continues to contract in Ohio as a steady stream of Obama +1-3 polls -- with a smattering of small Romney leads or ties -- emerges. If there are tiers of toss up states, Florida/Colorado/Virginia form one and Iowa/Ohio/New Hampshire form another with Nevada/Wisconsin as a tertiary group on the Obama side of the Spectrum. If Romney wins the first group and Obama the third group, then how that middle threesome splits becomes decisive. Romney would be at 257 electoral votes and Obama at 253. Those final 28 would tip the balance. Ohio and one or both of Iowa/New Hampshire would do it. A combination of just Iowa and New Hampshire falls short of 270.

Virginia:
Contrary to the near automatic allocation of Virginia's 13 electoral votes to Romney above, PPP found the president up by two points in the Old Dominion. That's nearly identical to the poll the firm conducted in Virginia just a few days ago. And the release continues a pattern of the candidates pretty evenly trading leads in polls of the state. Again, that has the FHQ weighted average closing some, but quite slowly. The addition of this poll dropped the average by just 0.01 since yesterday.


Another day of toss up state polls brought no changes to the map, the tally or the Electoral College Spectrum. ...again. Virginia, Colorado and Florida continue to be the most troubling as there has been enough of a shift in each to call into question their status as Toss Up Obama states as reflected in the weighted averages here. Each is tracking in the expected direction and Florida is the only one of the three that seems to have actually shifted into the Romney column without doing so in the averages. While Romney has had some leads -- where he didn't before the first debate -- in Virginia and Colorado, they have not necessarily been consistent leads across all firms. The shading here -- for Toss Up Obama -- may be correct, but the average may be overstating things slightly at the moment. Things may be closer to tied between Obama and Romney than an Obama +1.8 in Colorado or Obama +2.3 in Virginia may indicate.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Unlike yesterday, when Iowa and Oregon dropped off the list, the Watch List remained intact today. There were no changes.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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