New State Polls (10/25/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California
|
10/14-10/21
|
+/- 3.2%
|
993 likely voters
|
53
|
41
|
4
|
+12
|
+18.04
| |
Colorado
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
46
|
43
|
8
|
+3
|
+1.70
| |
Colorado
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 4.4%
|
502 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
--
|
+3
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1128 likely voters
|
48
|
48
|
2
|
0
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/23-10/25
|
+/- 3.3%
|
904 likely voters
|
51
|
47
|
2
|
+4
|
--
| |
Connecticut
|
10/15-10/17
|
+/- 4.0%
|
625 likely voters
|
49
|
42
|
--
|
+7
|
+11.56
| |
Florida
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
7
|
+2
|
+0.50
| |
Florida
|
10/24
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1182 likely voters
|
49
|
50
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 3.7%
|
690 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
4
|
+2
|
+2.64
| |
Nevada
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1042 likely voters
|
50
|
47
|
2
|
+3
|
+4.03
| |
North Carolina
|
10/23-10/25
|
+/- 3.3%
|
880 likely voters
|
48
|
48
|
4
|
0
|
+1.35
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/24
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
51
|
46
|
2
|
+5
|
+6.17
| |
Virginia
|
10/22-10/24
|
+/- 3.5%
|
832 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
--
|
+2
|
+2.14
| |
Virginia
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1126 likely voters
|
44
|
46
|
7
|
+2
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 3.6%
|
722 likely voters
|
51
|
46
|
3
|
+5
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/24
|
+/- 4.0%
|
750 likely voters
|
48
|
50
|
1
|
+2
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/23-10/24
|
+/- 3.4%
|
827 likely voters
|
51
|
45
|
4
|
+6
|
+4.69
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
California:
This new PPIC poll would be noteworthy except for the fact that the firm has consistently had the president up by a margin somewhere in low teens. This poll is certainly no different, though it does show a modest two point shift in Governor Romney's direction since the September survey. California is still blue.
Colorado:
Colorado, on the other hand, may not still be blue. But on this particular day, the polling was favorable for Obama. The margins ranged anywhere from tied to a four point edge for the president. Sure, three of those polls -- a couple of Obama +3s and an Obama +4 -- were all from Democratic-aligned pollsters, but the impact was minimal. Obama's advantage improved only marginally by about a tenth of a point. Colorado continues to tip toward the president, but by a very small margin.
Connecticut:
The latest Mason-Dixon poll in the Nutmeg state echoed the recent numbers from Rasmussen. And while both firms point toward a tightening race in Connecticut, that isn't something that has not been indicated somewhere along the line in the polling of the state this year, nor is it something that is indicative of a fundamental change -- one that would flip the state -- in the state of play in Connecticut. The Rasmussen polls have tended to hit the Obama share of support and overstate (relative to other polls) the Romney share of support. This Mason-Dixon survey -- their first in Connecticut this cycle that FHQ can see -- both understates Obama's share relative to the weighted average share and overstates Romney's. The margins are similar but the way of getting there is not. Connecticut is still blue, but that difference is worth noting.
Florida:
It is more surprising when we get a poll that is not one or two points toward one of the candidates (Romney more often than not following the Denver debate). These two polls -- both Gravis and Grove Insight -- fall right within that range. And the impact is minimal.
[NOTE: Since the effect of the decision is felt most here with Florida, I'll mention it here. These JZ Analytics polls from the Newsmax/Zogby collaboration are kind of tricky to deal with since they are short-window, rolling trackers. But there is overlap in the samples from day to day and including all of the data leads us down the road of counting some information twice. FHQ will, moving forward, replace these polls sequentially as they come along and leave the average of the three day tracking polls as the final piece of data from the firm. I don't know that this is a perfect way of dealing with the issue, but it is an adequate response that is not having much impact in the numbers. With the change, the average margin in Florida dropped by 0.04 points. Please note also, that JZ Analytics numbers are being phased in in Virginia below as well.]
Iowa:
Romney dropped a point in the PPP survey from the one a week ago by the firm. That brings Romney's share of support closer to being in line with the FHQ weighted average share for the governor and is consistent with the FHQ average share for Obama. The overall weighted average margin continues to slide downward. That is not necessarily based on any continued momentum toward Romney so much as it is the averages being hit with a slew of data indicating a closer race; one still favoring the president, but to a lesser extent now.
Nevada:
The thing in Nevada -- and this is reflected in the new poll from Marist -- is that Obama is hovering pretty consistently over the last week or two right at or even over the 50% mark. Has the margin closed? Yes, but only a little and Romney can't catch up if Obama is pulling in more than 50% of the vote in the Silver state. The governor can make it interesting by perhaps pulling the race into the margin of error, but not be able to turn the tables. Those are the two things to watch in Nevada over the next week.
North Carolina:
Just when you think Romney is starting to pull away in the Tarheel state along comes another poll showing the race there tied or only very slightly in Romney's direction. As FHQ has talked about numerous times, North Carolina is a state that the Obama campaign can see, but probably is not in range to reach. That and the fact that Obama would have to swim against the current to pick off a state that has been the one toss up state the governor could count on throughout is a good thing for Romney The best, then, that the Obama campaign can hope for is to make Romney work -- expend some resources -- to defend North Carolina (like what Romney could potentially do in Pennsylvania or Michigan to Obama).
Pennsylvania:
Other than the blip that was the Romney +4 from Susquehanna recently, the same basic rule applies to Pennsylvania as does to Ohio: if Romney has never/rarely led a poll there then it isn't likely going to happen. Again, other than that Susquehanna poll, Romney has not done any better than to get it within three points and that is only occasionally. The momentum from 2008 to 2012 is in Romney's/the Republicans' favor -- and we're talking long term patterns not intra-campaign shifts here -- but even having said that, Pennsylvania is to Romney roughly what North Carolina is to Obama. In other words, icing on the cake; something indicative of an electoral vote total already over 270. This new Rasmussen poll does little to alter that. Neither does the fact that the numbers didn't budge since the last Rasmusen poll of the Keystone state.
Virginia:
The mantra concerning Virginia around FHQ since the Denver debate has been that the candidates trade an even number of leads in the polls back and forth with each other. With four new polls today, that is again the case. Right down the middle, Romney has a couple of polls in his favor while Obama claims advantages in the other two. The average margin in the commonwealth continues to trickle down but only just barely. Very simply, Virginia seems tied right now and the polls have done little to change that.
Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is not all that different from Nevada. That should not come as a surprise since both have been camped out next to each other on the Electoral College Spectrum for quite a while now. And some of the same dynamics seem to be at work in Wisconsin as in Nevada. Outside of the recent Grove Insight poll that understated both Obama's and Romney's share of support in the Badger state, no poll has found the president under 48% since PPP found Romney ahead in the August period after Wisconsinite, Paul Ryan, was named to the Republican ticket. In fact, the weighted average finds Obama's share at 49.7%. That makes Wisconsin an uphill climb for Romney for the same reasons as Nevada. That is not to say that the former Massachusetts governor cannot win there, but that it would appear unlikely without some evidence that he is ahead and ahead consistently there.
Now, as for the impact these polls had on the map, tally or Spectrum, well, it wasn't much. Most of the averages inched closer, but as FHQ said in an earlier post, the question now is whether this is continued momentum toward Romney following the first debate or the typical narrowing we see in the polls as election day nears. The evidence seems point to the latter. Romney's surge has leveled off and what we seem to be witnessing now is a slow and incremental narrowing between the two candidates with little altered in terms of the overall outcome of the race. Several states have gotten more interesting, but none -- save for Florida mainly, but Colorado and Virginia to some extent as well -- have shown any indication of flipping to the other side.
...in this case, the Romney side of the partisan line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
MT-3
(159)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
GA-16
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
SD-3
(140)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
IN-11
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
IL-20
(73)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
TX-38
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
WV-5
(74)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
LA-8
(69)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
MS-6
(61)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The map, electoral vote tally, Spectrum and yeah, add the Watch List to this as well, changed compared to yesterday.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Minnesota
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Strong Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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