New State Polls (10/28/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/- 3.7%
|
687 likely voters
|
49
|
48
|
3
|
+1
|
+0.37
| |
Minnesota
|
10/23-10/25
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
7
|
+3
|
+7.87
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/24-10/25
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
7
|
+3
|
+3.17
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/- 3.3%
|
874 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
5
|
+2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/18-10/23
|
+/- 3.1%
|
1015 likely voters
|
49
|
49
|
1
|
0
|
+2.95
| |
Ohio
|
10/27
|
+/- 3.6%
|
730 likely voters
|
50
|
49
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/- 3.7%
|
718 likely voters
|
51
|
47
|
2
|
+4
|
--
| |
Tennessee
|
10/16-10/21
|
+/- 4.0%
|
609 likely voters
|
34
|
59
|
6
|
+25
|
+12.53
| |
Virginia
|
10/25-10/27
|
+/- -.-%
|
807 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
--
|
+3
|
+2.12
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
One could certainly quibble with this assertion, but a Romney +1 to an Obama +1 in Florida from PPP is not all that noteworthy. Sure, there was some "movement" toward Obama, but this is a within the margin of error sort of move in the Sunshine state. Stated differently, not much has changed in Florida. It's still close.
Minnesota:
A state that has not been close in the polls, but is in this one instance is Minnesota. The eight point Obama lead Mason-Dixon found in mid-September is now down to three points. It is the first non-partisan poll showing the gap any narrower than six points all year. That is a new development, to be sure, and is in line to some extent with some of the polling in other Lean Obama states, but it is more of an outlier absent other similar data. Flag this one and let's wait -- hopefully not too long -- for some more information from some other firms.
New Hampshire:
The FHQ weighted average polling margin in the Granite state continues to inch down toward parity between the two candidates. While that is the case, it is also true that the president maintains a small and persistent lead. I'll gloss over the perpetually +3 Grove survey (The margin is seemingly Obama +3 most everywhere.), but the PPP survey represents, as was the case with Florida above, a slight shift toward the president. And while I minimized that shift above (and do here as well), looking for similar shifts across all firms is something to watch out for. If it happens in only PPP polls then that is one thing, but if it is happening elsewhere, then that means something else altogether.
Ohio:
There were three new surveys out of Ohio today and they once again, like a number of multi-Ohio poll days recently, spanned the range of typical results. In this case, from tied to Obama +4. That pretty well encapsulated the post-Denver polling in the Buckeye state: bouncing around within that range, but usually in that range. That translates into about Obama +2 and that is the range that the FHQ weighted average margin now sits at for the state.
Tennessee:
| Changes (October 28) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | Lean Romney | Strong Romney | |
Virginia:
Days with only one (or no) Virginia polls feel very rare indeed at this point in the race. That has been particularly true over the last couple of weeks as the polls have been a tit-for-tat trade-off between the candidates in the Old Dominion. As for this poll from Garin et al., well, it shows the same three point lead for the president that the firm indicated in June with both candidates gaining three points. This poll fits in with the others that have come out since the first debate and is well within the Romney +3 to Obama +5 range the polls have exhibited since that time.
Tennessee's move to the Strong Romney category squeezes the Lean Romney category down to just a couple of states. That distinction really is of little value right now. Even if we assumed that the polls (and averages) across the board were five points "too Romney" right now and adjusted them accordingly, those Lean Romney states would only barely be in play. More than anything, that highlights North Carolina's position as the lone toss up state favoring the former Massachusetts governor and just how "settled" Romney's side of the partisan line is outside of the Tarheel state.
If we performed that same exercise in the opposite direction Michigan and Wisconsin would be a lot closer than they already are, and Pennsylvania and Oregon would not be very far behind. In other words, the Obama side of things, at least as the Lean Obama states are concerned, is not nearly as "settled" as Lean Romney states are on the opposite side of the partisan line.
This race is in the middle of those two extremes right now, but where in the middle is the operative question.
The map finds Tennessee now shaded in the dark Strong red and likewise the Spectrum shows the Volunteer state seven spots deeper in the order on the Romney side of the ledger. Other than that, things stayed the same on both figures.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
GA-16
(167)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
SD-3
(151)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(148)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
RI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
SC-9
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
TN-11
(128)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
IL-20
(73)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
TX-38
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
WV-5
(74)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
LA-8
(69)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MT-3
(170)
|
MS-6
(61)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The same was not true on the Watch List. Consequentially, Ohio drops off the list. The Buckeye state is no longer within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Lean Obama category. As of now, it is well within the Toss Up range. The same is true of Minnesota, but now it is firmly within the Lean category.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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