Wednesday, October 3, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/3/12)

Debate day!

Wednesday found quite a number of polling organizations getting new, state-level polling releases in under the wire to set pre-debate baselines of support. It was mainly business as usual -- or as close to that "new normal" post-convention -- with ten new surveys from ten states.

New State Polls (10/3/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/1-10/3
+/- 4.0%
595 likely voters
44
53
3
+9
+7.20
Florida
9/30-10/1
+/- 3.3%
890 likely voters
47
46
6
+1
+1.29
Missouri
10/1-10/3
+/- 3.7%
700 likely voters
45
51
4
+6
+6.97
New Jersey
9/27-9/30
+/- 3.8%
645 likely voters
56
39
4
+17
+13.18
North Carolina
10/2
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
51
1
+4
+1.02
Ohio
9/30-10/1
+/- 3.2%
931 likely voters
51
43
4
+8
+3.96
Texas
9/10-9/26
+/- 4.66%
443 likely voters
39
58
4
+19
+14.90
Virginia
9/30-10/1
+/- 3.1%
969 likely voters
48
46
5
+2
+3.18
Washington
9/28-9/30
+/- 4.3%
540 likely voters
56
36
3
+20
+14.02
Wisconsin
9/27-9/30
+/- 3.4%
894 likely voters
53
42
4
+11
+5.43

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
With rare exception, Mitt Romney has consistently been at or over the 50% mark in Arizona polling since he wrapped up the Republican nomination back in the spring. What's more, his competition has not really closed the gap; not in a consistent way anyway. That was the case again in the latest poll of the state from PPP. Romney was over a 50% share of support and Obama was mired back in the mid-40s. The poll confirmed what we already knew about Arizona. It is a Lean Romney state.

Florida:
Speaking of settling in to a new normal, Florida has bucked that trend in many ways. There have been some sporadic blips on the radar over the course of the year, but polling in the Sunshine state has fallen within a +/- 5 point range in either direction. The bulk of those have tipped toward the president, but not in a way that has allowed the FHQ weighted average to get very far out of reach to the Romney campaign. An Obama +1 from Marist/WSJ/NBC did very little to break the established average.

Missouri:
A day after We Ask American found the Missouri presidential race within 3 points, a new PPP survey has Romney up double that in the Show Me state. Obama's share of support was the exact same across the two polls, and all the movement was on the Romney side. The better comparison may be to look at the previous August PPP survey. In the midst of the Republican convention (also post-Akin), the race favored Romney by 12 points. Poll-over-poll, then, there was a six point shift that was more about Obama support growing than Romney support ebbing. Despite all of that, Missouri is well within the Lean Romney category. These polls may have slightly calibrated that position, but have not shifted the state anywhere near to being the the competitive bellwether it has been in elections past or any more deeply into the Romney side of the ledger.

New Jersey:
The tale in the Garden state is that the polling there has spent much of the year in the low double digits. Just three of 19 2012 polls of New Jersey have found the Obama-Romney race within single digits. The president's position is strong there and that is not likely to change between now and election day.

North Carolina:
If the established range of polling results in North Carolina is +1 Obama to +4 Romney, then we have had bookends with the two extremes represented over the last two days. The latest is this +4 Romney from Rasmussen in the Tar Heel state today. Not to beat a dead horse here, but North Carolina is the one toss up state that has consistently been in Mitt Romney's column. And though it has remained closer a lot longer than FHQ personally expected it to, the Old North state is very likely to maintain that at least that distinction (...if not be joined by other toss up states).

Ohio:
If Florida is Obama +1 in the Marist poll above, it is perhaps a little difficult to imagine how Ohio could simultaneously be +8 for the president in a survey by the same firm. But that's the data we have here and it really isn't anything other than intra-firm statistical noise. Upper single digits results have popped up in the Buckeye state over the last week or so and this poll fits right into that category. Be that as it may, the FHQ weighted averages have not budged all that much. Sure, the average has ticked up close to the Lean/Toss Up line on the Obama side as a result of the addition of that data, but Ohio has not left the toss up area. However, it is moving in the wrong direction from the Romney campaign perspective. As we head into debate season, it is worth noting Ohio's position hovering around that Lean/Toss Up line.

Texas:
Thanks for checking in Texas. Still a strongly red state, huh? Let's put this Texas Lyceum survey in the confirming polling data category and move on, shall we?

Virginia:
The Old Dominion is another one of those states like Florida that has shown some deviation from an established and steady pattern of polling results. In Virginia, that has meant Obama's lead occasionally stretching into the upper single digits, but the preponderance of recent polls has pegged the president's advantage at around 1-4 points. That is a fairly well-established baseline heading into the next stage of big events that could alter the landscape of the race, the debates.

Washington:
See Texas, but shade the Evergreen state blue instead of red.

Wisconsin:
Compared to the immediately prior Marquette Law School survey of the Badger state, this one is actually an improvement for Governor Romney. But at Obama +11, it seems a little outside the bulk of most recent polling there (...though it is consistent with the We Ask America poll from a little more than a week ago). Those handful of polls and a subtle uptick in other post-convention polling margins in Wisconsin has the state's FHQ weighted average up almost a point since September 24. The polling in Wisconsin seems a tad more volatile than in some other states, but if we are drawing a line in the sand ahead of the debates, it looks like some of these recent polls in Wisconsin are setting a baseline that is apt to snap way back if the debates change the state of the race in any way.


Ohio and Wisconsin pushed the envelope the most in today's round of polling releases, but that did little to disrupt what has become commonplace around these parts: that 332-206 electoral college count on the map above. The group of toss up states has been whittled down now to just six states with a couple more (New Hampshire and Nevada) currently on the outside looking in. If this alignment and categorical breakdown holds until election day, Mitt Romney will have to sweep the toss up states to clear the 270 barrier. [Yes, he could cede Iowa or Colorado to the president and still get there, but that does not follow the established order of states on the Spectrum.]

Speaking of the Electoral College Spectrum, there were only minimal changes to it on the Romney side of the partisan line. Arizona and Missouri switched places (guarding either side of Tennessee) and Texas leapfrogged both Louisiana and Nebraska deeper into the Romney column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(178)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List loses North Carolina on the day that opens the 2012 debate season. Now both of the closest states -- Florida and North Carolina -- are off the list. That means that the best shots for changing up the steady electoral college tally are just outside of the range for jumping across the partisan line on the Spectrum above and changing the constant 332-206 count that FHQ has had since mid-summer.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Virginia
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Toss Up Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that toss up distinction.

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