Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/4/12)

Anticipating the debates, most firms had already weighed in with pre-debate polls setting various state-level baselines for both candidates. That means that for a Thursday there just weren't that many new polls floating around. But there were a handful.

New State Polls (10/4/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
9/28-10/2
+/- 2.4%
1696 likely voters
54
42
4
+12
+12.20
Hawaii
9/26-9/28
+/- 2.4%
1648 likely voters
62
30
6
+32
+26.25
Missouri
10/2
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
46
49
3
+3
+6.72

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
Again, the Nutmeg state enjoyed a period of time where it looks as if the poll margins were closing into the upper single digits, but that has since slipped back into the lower double digit range. And the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut confirms that. The previous Q poll was an example of a narrower gap -- just before the Republican convention -- and this latest poll shows that margin back up at the 12 point level; right around the overall FHQ weighted average margin.

Hawaii:
Hawaii makes the second deeply blue state without any 2012 polling data to have a survey released this week. [Rhode Island was the other.] Like Rhode Island, there isn't really any suspense in the Aloha state. Obama's home state is still safely blue for the president even if the gap between the candidates in this poll is slightly lower than where the 2008 election results were.

Missouri:
I don't know that a Romney +3 in Missouri is all that surprising, but the Show Me state has never really felt like a 2012 toss up state at any point this year. However, recent polling seems to be suggesting that +3 is the lower bound of the range of polling results; a bit of a best case/worst case scenario for Obama or Romney, respectively. For the sake of context, the Romney share of support in this poll is right on his FHQ average there while Obama's is slightly overstated as compared to the same metric.


There were very few polls today and not surprisingly that offered little in the way of opportunity to see changes to the map (and resultant electoral vote tally) or the Electoral College Spectrum. The map remains unchanged as compared to a day ago and the Spectrum saw only Hawaii move; jumping both New York and Rhode Island to a spot deep into the Obama column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NV-6
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(109)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(251)
TN-11
(178)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The same principle applies to the Watch List. None of the seven states on the list had new polling information released and none of three states with new survey data were all that close to the cutpoints to put them on the list. The status quo wins out as we await some post-debate data.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Indiana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Virginia
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Toss Up Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that toss up distinction.

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