Friday, September 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/28/12)

The close of the work week brought six new polls in six states. And the take home, to the extent there was one, was that the status quo was maintained pretty much across the board. This was calibrating/confirming survey data rather than information that fundamentally changed the outlook in any of the six states represented.

New State Polls (9/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/25-9/26
+/- 4.0%
500 likely voters
42
46
9
+4
+7.00
Maine
9/25
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
40
4
+12
+14.59
Michigan
9/21-9/22
+/- 3.3%
804 likely voters
50.0
46.2
3.8
+3.8
+5.77
New Hampshire
9/25-9/27
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+4.20
Pennsylvania
9/22-9/26
+/- 5.0%
427 likely voters
49
42
5
+7
+7.24
Virginia
9/24-9/27
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+3.05

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Certainly the results of the Moore poll are far tighter than what we saw from Rasmussen in Arizona just yesterday. However, the smaller poll margin did little to pull the FHQ weighted average out of the Lean Romney territory the Grand Canyon state has occupied throughout 2012. The driver behind the change is likely the inclusion of both Gary Johnson (Libertarian nominee) and Jill Stein (Green nominee) in the poll. Even with two third party candidates added, the poll still had a surprisingly high number of undecideds given how deep we are into the general election campaign.

Maine:
The Senate race in the Pine Tree state may prove to be more interesting, because the race for Maine's four electoral votes sure isn't. Obama has held a consistent polling edge in the state in the low to mid-double digits and that doesn't appear to be on the verge of budging. Blue state.

Michigan:
If any poll on today's list breaks from the overall pattern of consistency, it would be the Gravis poll out of Michigan. At an only 3.8 point Obama advantage, the poll has the gap in the Great Lakes state a little lower than most recent polls, post-convention, have found. That said, this is hardly an outlier. Rather, it merely seems to be on the lower end of the range. Compared to the FHQ weighted average of each candidate's share of support in Michigan, this poll overstates Obama's support by a couple of points and Romney's by about four with a shrinking number of undecideds.

New Hampshire:
At +5 Obama, this new ARG poll of New Hampshire comes close not only to the FHQ weighted average margin in the Granite state, but also matches the median margin of all post-convention polling conducted there. In other words, this one is par for the course. The weighted average ticks up just a hair, but that's about it.

Pennsylvania:
See New Hampshire and add the caveats that 1) Pennsylvania is a Lean Obama state and not a toss up and 2) the FHQ weighted average margin shrunk by one one-hundredth of a point. This Muhlenberg survey was a confirming poll, not a direction changing poll.

Virginia:
FHQ mentioned yesterday that Virginia is one of the few states where the conventions seem to have clearly provided the president with a bounce that has in the time since almost completely receded and settled back into what had emerged as a normal +2-4 point edge for Obama. That was true of the Suffolk poll a day ago and is true of the ARG survey today. Again, this one is a confirming poll. Nothing more, nothing less.


Given the types of polls we got today, there isn't much of a tale to tell either on the map or on the Electoral College Spectrum. Both the overall tally above and the alignment of states below stayed pretty much the same. The only change from Thursday was that Arizona jumped up a couple of spots to a very slightly more competitive position in the Lean Romney category. Of course, it wasn't enough that it made the Grand Canyon state legitimately competitive or brought it close to the toss up category.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Needless to say, with Arizona serving as the big mover of the day -- the only mover really -- and that it did not move into range of the toss up category, the Watch List remains unchanged. Though the list has ballooned to ten states, North Carolina (and Florida) along with Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin continue to be the states to look at most closely. Those five (or six) states will tell us all we need to know over the next five plus weeks (i.e.: Romney solidifying his lead in North Carolina or tightening the screws on Obama in a more stubborn group of blue states).

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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