Thursday, November 29, 2012

The 1984 Electoral College Spectrum

This is part of something bigger that FHQ is working on, but we will roll it out piece by piece starting with 1984.

The 1984 Electoral College Spectrum1
MN-10
(13)2		OR-7
(137/408)		GA-12
(249)		IN-12
(166)		KS-7
(50)
MA-13
(26/525)		IL-24
(161/401)		NM-5
(237)		NC-13
(154)		AZ-7
(43)
RI-4
(30/512)		WA-10
(171/377)		KY-9
(232)		MS-7
(141)		NV-4
(36)
MD-10
(40/508)		CA-47
(218/367)		NJ-16
(223)		VA-12
(134)		AK-3
(32)
PA-25
(65/498)		TN-11
(229/320)		CT-8
(207)		SD-3
(122)		NH-4
(29)
IA-8
(73/473)		VT-3
(232/309)		ME-4
(199)		TX-29
(119)		OK-8
(25)
NY-36
(109/465)		OH-23
(255/306)		AR-6
(195)		SC-8
(90)		NE-5
(17)
WI-11
(120/429)		MI-203
(275/283)
AL-9
(189)		CO-8
(82)		WY-3
(12)
WV-6
(126/418)		DE-3
(263)		MT-4
(180)		FL-21
(74)		ID-4
(9)
HI-4
(130/412)		MO-11
(260)		LA-10
(176)		ND-3
(53)		UT-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Mondale had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 275 electoral votes. Mondale's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Mondale's number is on the left in italics and Reagan's is on the right.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3Michigan is the state where Reagan crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

NOTES:
1) The colors are fun to look at here if only to see what an essentially spectrumless spectrum looks like in an electoral college and popular vote landslide. But they (the colors) are far less consequential in the grand scheme of this exercise than the ordering of the states.

2) It is also worth noting that some cycle-to-cycle shuffling of states has to do with the idiosyncrasies of any given election. Too much, then, should not be drawn from the shifts over time. ...not yet anyway. Stay tuned for subsequent updates for a more robust picture.

3) Notice where the tipping point state (Michigan) is. In 1984 that was slightly further left -- five spots -- than in 2012; in the second column instead of middle (third) column. The rightward shift indicates that the concentration of population and thus electoral votes has shifted toward the right (into the west and south) due to reapportionment but also because of some shuffling of states.

4) Check out where the 2012 swing states are. New Hampshire and Nevada are all the way over in the column to the far right. Colorado, Florida and Virginia, too, are further to the right of the tipping point. Iowa and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, are further to the left of Michigan. Ohio, surprisingly or not, is huddled up against the tipping point state.

5) Still overwhelmingly red -- owing to the advantage President Reagan held in the electoral college in 1984 -- West Virginia has shifted in the three decades since all the way from the far left column to the far right column of the spectrum. If rankings are assigned, the Mountain state shifted from the tenth slot in 1984 to the 47th position in 2012!



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