The Electoral College Map (10/29/12)

For the next to last Monday before election day, the number of polls released was rather pedestrian. There were just 11 new surveys from eight states, and none of them did a whole lot to budge either the metrics/figures here at FHQ or the overall state of the race. Things have seemingly settled in as the race prepares to enter its last week (...but not without an external shock from Mother Nature that could have some form of impact on a very close national contest).

New State Polls (10/29/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	American Research Group	10/25-10/28	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	48	4	+1	+1.60
Florida	CNN	10/25-10/28	+/- 3.5%	770 likely voters	49	50	1	+1	+0.32
Florida	JZ Analytics	10/26-10/28	+/- 3.5%	825 likely voters	46.2	47.5	3.7	+1.3	--
Maryland	Baltimore Sun/Opinion Works	10/20-10/23	+/- 3.5%	801 likely voters	55	36	8	+19	+21.16
Massachusetts	University of New Hampshire/Boston Globe	10/24-10/28	+/- 4.1%	583 likely voters	52	38	--	+14	+19.55
Nevada	Grove Insight	10/27-10/28	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	49	43	--	+6	+3.99
New Hampshire	Lake Research	10/24-10/28	+/- 5.0%	400 likely voters	47	42	7	+5	+3.24
North Carolina	Elon University	10/21-10/26	+/- 2.79%	1238 likely voters	45	45	9	0	+1.49
Ohio	JZ Analytics	10/26-10/28	+/- 3.5%	826 likely voters	48.2	44.0	3.2	+4.2	+2.89
Ohio	Rasmussen	10/28	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	48	50	1	+2	--
Virginia	JZ Analytics	10/26-10/28	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	48.1	46.0	3.5	+2.1	+2.12

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Obama is up one and Romney's down a couple of points since the last ARG poll of the Centennial state immediately following the Denver debate. On the one hand, that's some slight narrowing, but on the other, that is hardly a significant shift (one within the margin of error anyway). Colorado is going to be one of those states that we'll be up late watching on election night.

Florida:
Florida will be one of those states, too. There was some movement toward Romney in the Zogby poll since the last rolling tracking poll conducted a couple of weeks ago, but the CNN surveys have shown a consistent one point lead for Romney. Again, there isn't much of a story here. Florida is as close to a tie as any state on the board here at FHQ.

Maryland:
Things are mostly static in the Old Line state as well. The Baltimore Sun last commissioned a poll from Opinion Works in late September and in that time Obama has lost two points that Romney has picked up. But that's a drop in the bucket in deep blue Maryland.

Massachusetts:
Well, the Globe/UNH poll seems to indicate a nearly halving of the president's lead in the Bay state relative to the poll the paper had conducted last month. While that appears significant, it brings the numbers more in line with where the rest of the polling has been in the state recently. Obama share of support is a little under where it is in the FHQ averages and Romney's share is even less overstated. Both are within the margin of error in the poll. Nothing to see here.

Nevada:
My first thought when I saw this poll was that it was going to force me to redo the map to reshade Nevada Lean Obama blue. It did have the effect of increasing the president's advantage in the Silver state, but it kept the margin under the four point threshold. This poll seems like a bit of a best case scenario of Obama. It hits the president's FHQ average share of support while understating Romney's share by a couple of points. This poll is hardly different from the poll Grove had out in the field earlier in the month.

New Hampshire:
If the Grove poll above was a best case scenario for Obama in Nevada, the same is probably true for the Lake Research survey in New Hampshire. Romney trails but this is the only poll other than the Obama +9 UNH poll from last week to show the former Massachusetts governor down by more than three points. Most of the gap in this poll is attributable to the three point drop Romney felt compared to the last Lake poll. That is an understatement of where he has been in most of the post-Denver polling in the Granite state.

North Carolina:
Another day and another tied or one point North Carolina poll. This one from Elon University. Say what you will about North Carolina's position in this race, much less the electoral college calculus, but it has never quite disappeared from the landscape altogether. FHQ has been of the opinion that Romney would win here in the Tarheel state all along, but that notion has been tested at various points in the race. If you want a state to watch on election night, watch North Carolina. Don't watch it to see if one candidate or the other wins it. Pay close attention to how quickly the state is called. If it is called early for Romney, then we may have some early evidence that the governor may be able to make a push in some of the other -- at least here -- Toss Up Obama states. If, however, North Carolina drags on with no call throughout much of the night, then the opposite may be true. That won't necessarily mean that Obama will win the state, rather that he would in that drawn-out North Carolina call be doing well in other toss up states. That'll be a better indicator than waiting on these next two states' results to come in. [Both Ohio and Virginia should be expected to be close and take a while to determine on election night.]

Ohio:
At Romney +2, the Rasmussen poll in Ohio gives the governor just his fourth lead in the polls of the Buckeye state since the first debate. On top of that, it is the biggest lead as well. Surprisingly or not, the Zogby poll actually is quite a bit closer to the FHQ weighted average shares of support both candidates enjoy. I don't know whether that's a good thing or not. ...but it is a fact. Ohio is in the same boat but to a lesser extent than Florida and Colorado. All are close and will take a while on Tuesday.

Virginia:
Again, as was the case with the Ohio Zogby poll, this one in Virginia nails it as well. The 2.1 advantage the president holds exactly matches the spread FHQ is showing at the moment. Again, take that with whatever measurement of salt -- perhaps more than a grain -- that you would like. This poll does look a lot like the average of three day tracking poll from earlier in the month.

The map, tally and Electoral College Spectrum remain unaltered today as compared to yesterday. None of the newly added polls did much to fundamentally change a close race that seems to have hunkered down for the final days of the battle. Obama continues to maintain consistent albeit rather tenuous leads across most of the toss up states. That they are persistent leads is something for the Obama campaign to hang its hat on, but these are still toss up states at the end of the day and there is still an opening for the Romney campaign. It would require a pretty good shift relative to the baselines set by the polling averages, but it isn't an unheard of movement; particularly in a close race.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	ND-3 (55)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	SC-9 (137)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
IL-20 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	TX-38 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	WV-5 (74)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	LA-8 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List was whittled down to just six states yesterday, and that is unchanged today. Two on the list can be discarded immediately, and the rest aren't exactly shockers. We should be looking for new polls from Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and all the other toss up or near toss up states, but we probably shouldn't expect too much to change within the averages over the next week.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/28/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/27/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/12)

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