The Electoral College Map (10/30/12)

With one week to go in the race for the White House, the pace of home-stretch polling is picking up some. There were 16 new surveys released from 11 states.

New State Polls (10/30/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	Mellman Group	10/24-10/27	+/- 3.4%	800 likely voters	49	47	4	+2	+0.38
Florida	Survey USA	10/25-10/27	+/- 4.1%	595 likely voters	47	47	5	0	--
Florida	JZ Analytics	10/27-10/29	+/- 3.5%	828 likely voters	47.4	46.7	3.6	+0.7	--
Georgia	Survey USA	10/25-10/28	+/- 4.2%	574 likely voters	44	52	2	+8	+9.47
Iowa	Public Policy Polling	10/29-10/30	+/- 3.8%	676 likely voters	50	45	4	+5	+2.81
Massachusetts	Suffolk	10/25-10/28	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	63	31	3	+32	+20.07
Michigan	Glengariff Group	10/27-10/29	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47.7	45	6.3	+2.7	+5.61
North Carolina	Survey USA	10/27-10/29	+/- 3.8%	682 likely voters	45	50	3	+5	+1.59
North Dakota	Mason-Dixon	10/26-10/28	+/- 4.0%	625 likely voters	40	54	3	+14	+16.04
Ohio	Mellman Group	10/23-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	49	44	7	+5	+2.91
Ohio	Survey USA	10/26-10/29	+/- 4.1%	603 likely voters	48	45	6	+3	--
Ohio	JZ Analytics	10/27-10/29	+/- 3.5%	825 likely voters	46.8	43.6	4.4	+3.2	--
Ohio	Grove Insight	10/26-10/29	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	48	45	--	+3	--
Oregon	Elway/The Oregonian	10/25-10/28	+/- 5.0%	405 likely voters	47	41	9	+6	+6.23
Texas	University of Texas/Texas Tribune	10/15-10/21	+/- 4.22%	540 likely voters	39	55	6	+16	+14.93
Virginia	JZ Analytics	10/27-10/29	+/- 3.5%	829 likely voters	45.3	47.4	4.7	+2.1	+2.04

[NOTE: In an effort to catch up FHQ will dispense with the state by state observations and provide some short, overall impressions.]

The picture did not change all that much either nationally -- through the electoral college -- or on the state level with the addition of today's polls. The margins may have been a little higher than the bulk of recent polling in North Carolina or lower in Michigan (both good for Romney), but things held steady overall. Strategically, in the two largest toss up state electoral college chips (Florida and Ohio), there multiple new polls and all of the news on that front was good for the president. Obama led or was tied in all seven of those surveys.

But again, there was little change in the grand scheme of things.

The map (changes since 10/29): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/29):
Massachusetts: traded places with Illinois
North Dakota: jumped up a couple of spots toward the partisan line
Texas: flipped positions with West Virginia

We're really only talking about some shuffling among a handful of strong states. There was no movement among the toss up states. That said, it is noteworthy that Ohio and Iowa are now nearly in the same position. Those tier two states -- New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- are now nearly interchangeable in the order.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	SC-9 (137)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	WV-5 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (107)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	ND-3 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/29): No change. Only Florida and Georgia had new data and both maintained their status quo positions.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/29/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/27/12)

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