New State Polls (10/30/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/24-10/27
|
+/- 3.4%
|
800 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
4
|
+2
|
+0.38
| |
Florida
|
10/25-10/27
|
+/- 4.1%
|
595 likely voters
|
47
|
47
|
5
|
0
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/- 3.5%
|
828 likely voters
|
47.4
|
46.7
|
3.6
|
+0.7
|
--
| |
Georgia
|
10/25-10/28
|
+/- 4.2%
|
574 likely voters
|
44
|
52
|
2
|
+8
|
+9.47
| |
Iowa
|
10/29-10/30
|
+/- 3.8%
|
676 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
+2.81
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/25-10/28
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
63
|
31
|
3
|
+32
|
+20.07
| |
Michigan
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
47.7
|
45
|
6.3
|
+2.7
|
+5.61
| |
North Carolina
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/- 3.8%
|
682 likely voters
|
45
|
50
|
3
|
+5
|
+1.59
| |
North Dakota
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/- 4.0%
|
625 likely voters
|
40
|
54
|
3
|
+14
|
+16.04
| |
Ohio
|
10/23-10/25
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
49
|
44
|
7
|
+5
|
+2.91
| |
Ohio
|
10/26-10/29
|
+/- 4.1%
|
603 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
6
|
+3
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/- 3.5%
|
825 likely voters
|
46.8
|
43.6
|
4.4
|
+3.2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/26-10/29
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
--
|
+3
|
--
| |
Oregon
|
10/25-10/28
|
+/- 5.0%
|
405 likely voters
|
47
|
41
|
9
|
+6
|
+6.23
| |
Texas
|
10/15-10/21
|
+/- 4.22%
|
540 likely voters
|
39
|
55
|
6
|
+16
|
+14.93
| |
Virginia
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/- 3.5%
|
829 likely voters
|
45.3
|
47.4
|
4.7
|
+2.1
|
+2.04
| |
[NOTE: In an effort to catch up FHQ will dispense with the state by state observations and provide some short, overall impressions.]
The picture did not change all that much either nationally -- through the electoral college -- or on the state level with the addition of today's polls. The margins may have been a little higher than the bulk of recent polling in North Carolina or lower in Michigan (both good for Romney), but things held steady overall. Strategically, in the two largest toss up state electoral college chips (Florida and Ohio), there multiple new polls and all of the news on that front was good for the president. Obama led or was tied in all seven of those surveys.
But again, there was little change in the grand scheme of things.
The map (changes since 10/29): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/29):
Massachusetts: traded places with Illinois
North Dakota: jumped up a couple of spots toward the partisan line
Texas: flipped positions with West Virginia
We're really only talking about some shuffling among a handful of strong states. There was no movement among the toss up states. That said, it is noteworthy that Ohio and Iowa are now nearly in the same position. Those tier two states -- New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- are now nearly interchangeable in the order.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
GA-16
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
SD-3
(151)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(148)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
RI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
SC-9
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
TN-11
(128)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
WV-5
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(107)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
ND-3
(69)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MT-3
(170)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List (changes since 10/29): No change. Only Florida and Georgia had new data and both maintained their status quo positions.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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