New State Polls (10/31/12)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
10/15-10/16
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
7
|
+3
|
+1.71
| |
Colorado
|
10/28-10/29
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
6
|
+3
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/30
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1246 likely voters
|
50
|
47
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/23-10/28
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1073 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
3
|
+1
|
+0.30
| |
Florida
|
10/29
|
+/- 4.2%
|
549 likely voters
|
48
|
50
|
1
|
+2
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/- 3.5%
|
825 likely voters
|
47.3
|
46.8
|
3.2
|
+0.5
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/30
|
+/- 4.2%
|
549 likely voters
|
47
|
50
|
4
|
+3
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/30
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1146 likely voters
|
49
|
50
|
--
|
+1
|
--
| |
Illinois
|
10/4-10/8
|
+/- 3.7%
|
700 likely voters
|
55
|
36
|
5
|
+19
|
+19.18
| |
Illinois
|
10/30
|
+/- 2.95%
|
1198 likely voters
|
57
|
41
|
--
|
+16
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
10/18-10/27
|
+/- 5.6%
|
320 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
6
|
+1
|
+2.61
| |
Iowa
|
10/30
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1174 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
--
|
+2
|
--
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/25
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
59
|
40
|
1
|
+19
|
+20.03
| |
Michigan
|
10/26-10/29
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
6
|
+6
|
+5.69
| |
Michigan
|
10/30-10/31
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
53
|
45
|
3
|
+8
|
--
| |
Minnesota
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/- 4.2%
|
574 likely voters
|
50
|
43
|
3
|
+7
|
+7.81
| |
Missouri
|
9/30-10/1
|
+/- 3.75%
|
675 likely voters
|
40
|
50
|
--
|
+10
|
+8.04
| |
Missouri
|
10/30
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1217 likely voters
|
42
|
54
|
--
|
+12
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/- 3.6%
|
730 likely voters
|
49
|
49
|
1
|
0
|
+1.54
| |
Ohio
|
10/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
50
|
43
|
4
|
+7
|
+2.97
| |
Ohio
|
10/8
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
47
|
46
|
4
|
+1
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/9-10/11
|
+/- 3.4%
|
835 likely voters
|
45.5
|
44.9
|
3.8
|
+0.6
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/23-10/28
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1100 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/29
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
48
|
46
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/25-10/30
|
+/- 2.9%
|
1141 likely voters
|
48
|
46
|
2
|
+2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/- 3.5%
|
826 likely voters
|
48.3
|
42.8
|
4.5
|
+5.5
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/29-10/30
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
50
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
50
|
43
|
4
|
+7
|
+5.95
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/8
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
6
|
+2
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/23-10/28
|
+/- 4.2%
|
547 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
4
|
+4
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/30
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
48
|
47
|
3
|
+1
|
+1.85
| |
Virginia
|
10/8
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
48
|
48
|
2
|
0
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/23-10/26
|
+/- 4.0%
|
638 likely voters
|
44
|
50
|
3
|
+6
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/23-10/28
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1074 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
46.3
|
47.1
|
4.4
|
+0.8
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/30
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
49
|
48
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/30-10/31
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
49
|
46
|
4
|
+3
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
51
|
44
|
2
|
+7
|
+4.62
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/8
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
2
|
+4
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/25-10/28
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1243 likely voters
|
51
|
43
|
5
|
+8
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/29
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
49
|
48
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/29-10/30
|
+/- 3.4%
|
825 likely voters
|
51
|
46
|
3
|
+5
|
--
| |
The striking thing about the slew of polls above is how much blue there is among the most competitive states. That means different things across those states. In Pennsylvania, every poll favors Obama, but of the four polls only the pre-Denver Pulse poll indicates a margin above four points. In Virginia, that blue demonstrates the continued level of competition in the Old Dominion. The average margin there also favors the president, but it has slipped below two points. From the Romney perspective, the most troubling aspect of the race continues to be the fact that the governor has not been able to take a lead and hold it in Ohio. The FHQ weighted average margin is under three points now -- and the Buckeye state is, after all, a toss up state -- but those are still consistent Obama edges there.
The map (changes since 10/30): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/30): No change. [This was a confirming polling day, mostly among the toss up states.]
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
GA-16
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
SD-3
(151)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(148)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
RI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
SC-9
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
TN-11
(128)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
WV-5
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(107)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
ND-3
(69)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MT-3
(170)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List (changes since 10/30): No change.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
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