Thursday, November 1, 2012

The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)

Thursday brought 21 new surveys from 11 states and one backlogged poll from Virginia. The FHQ weighted averages, especially among the toss up states -- and perhaps some of the more competitive Lean Obama states as well -- have become somewhat entrenched at this point. In those most competitive states, those average margins continue to tick down as more polling data emerges showing a tight race, but a tight race that has been consistent for a couple of weeks now since the post-Denver changes leveled off.

New State Polls (11/1/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/29
+/- 4.4%
750 likely voters
47
50
1
+3
+1.59
Colorado
10/26-10/31
+/- 3.5%
764 likely voters
50
48
1
+2
--
Colorado
10/29-10/31
+/- 3.4%
839 likely voters
49
48
2
+1
--
Florida
10/28-10/29
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+0.31
Indiana
10/24-10/25
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
41
55
4
+14
+12.30
Indiana
10/29-10/30
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
39
57
4
+18
--
Iowa
10/28-10/29
+/- 2.9%
1142 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+2.62
Iowa
10/30
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
48
49
1
+1
--
Iowa
10/29-10/31
+/- 3.4%
891 likely voters
50
47
2
+3
--
Nevada
10/23-10/25
+/- 3.4%
909 likely voters
50
46
3
+4
+3.99
Nevada
10/23-10/29
+/- 2.9%
1212 likely voters
50
46
2
+4
--
New Hampshire
10/28-10/29
+/- 3.1%
1242 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+3.19
North Carolina
10/22-10/30
+/- 5.0%
403 registered voters
45
46
9
+1
+1.53
Ohio
10/30-10/31
+/- 2.7%
1281 likely voters
46
49
--
+3
+2.88
Rhode Island
10/24-10/27
+/- 4.0%
601 likely voters
54
33
8
+21
+23.61
Virginia
10/8-10/9
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
44
51
4
+7
+1.71
Washington
10/18-10/31
+/- 3.9%
632 likely voters
57
36
3
+21
+13.70
Washington
10/28-10/31
+/- 4.2%
555 likely voters
54
40
--
+14
--
Wisconsin
10/25-10/29
+/- 5.0%
402 likely voters
52
43
--
+9
+4.52
Wisconsin
10/28-10/29
+/- 3.0%
1065 likely voters
49
46
3
+3
--
Wisconsin
10/29
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
49
49
2
0
--
Wisconsin
10/30-10/31
+/- 3.0%
1074 likely voters
49
47
--
+2
--

Again, things aren't budging much, nor should we expect them to move, whether drastically or otherwise, all that much between now and next Tuesday. There may be a few outliers on the board above, but the ordering of states seen below in the Electoral College Spectrum remains unchanged among the toss up states. Those three tiers that we have been talking about for over a week now are still there: Tier one (Florida, Colorado, Virginia), Tier two (New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa) and Tier three (Wisconsin, Nevada). Those tier one states had been slightly tipped toward Romney in the polling over the last couple of weeks -- particularly in Florida -- but now appear to be virtually tied. Again, that's in recent polling. In the FHQ averages, the president continues to hold small and shrinking advantages in each. Florida is basically tied and Virginia and Colorado are in the 1-2 point range; well within reach for the Romney campaign. The tier three states look like Obama states at this point. That is probably truer in Nevada than in Wisconsin as there are a handful of public polls that have Obama up by large margins pitted against other polling in the Badger state showing a very tight race.

The real action -- at least through the lens of the FHQ weighted averages -- is in that middle tier; tier two. Those three states are now in a range (in the averages) of 2.5 and 3.5 points in the president's favor. It should be noted that Ohio is by far the biggest state in that group and holds the power to tip the election in one direction or the other that Iowa and New Hampshire just do not hold in the electoral college.


The map (changes since 10/31): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/31): No change among the toss up states.
Indiana trades places with South Carolina.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SC-9
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(139)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/31): No change.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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