The election day map ends up just about right where it started out in July.
- Michigan shifted over those four months from Toss Up Obama to Lean Obama but always hovered around the line between those two categories.
- Minnesota moved from Strong Obama to Lean Obama just recently. Much of that is attributable to a contraction in the most recently released polling, but part of it also has to do with the overall lack of polls in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as compared to other similar states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. [The same was true of Oregon.]
- Indiana, Montana and Tennessee all started off in the Lean Romney category, drifted upward into the Strong Romney area throughout the late summer and early fall. That puts all three in line with where they would have been if we assumed a uniform shift in support toward the Republicans since the 2008 cycle.
- The margin in Missouri also moved up, but the Show Me state pushed from Toss Up Romney to Lean Romney after the conventions.
That's it.
Now, focusing on category changes masks some underlying movement that we should also mention. It is true that in all the toss up states with the exception of the lone state tipped in Romney's favor -- North Carolina -- that the margins drew closer as election day approached. Within the course of the campaign, some attributed this to the post-Denver momentum Romney enjoyed. To be sure, that debate altered the micro-dynamics of the race. But that effect dissipated in the polling over time and gave way to the typical narrowing that is exhibited in post-convention polling. [2008 is an exception to that rule.] FHQ says micro-dynamics there because the macro-dynamics -- the "fundamentals" -- still seemingly and ever so slightly "helped" the president.
...or at least that is what has been reflected in the polls.
Despite their tendency to meander due to events on the ground, the polls have told a consistent story through the lens of the FHQ weighted averages. The tally is now where it was in July: Obama 332, Romney 206. Now, it should be noted that the average margin (see table below) in Florida is down to just 0.16. That is pretty close, folks. FHQ will keep Florida right where it is on the map (The average does still tip to the president.), but the Sunshine state seems like a 50/50 proposition as election day makes its way into the afternoon. We could just as easily see a 303-236 split -- which is what many others are predicting -- but only time will tell.
--
In terms of how the states line up in the rank order on the Electoral College Spectrum, well, most consequentially, the order among the toss up states is preserved. There is not a whole lot of utility in discussing the shuffling among the strong states for either candidate, but here goes:
- On the Obama side of the partisan line, New Jersey and Maine switched spots, but are basically occupying the same space.
- As for the Romney side of things, Indiana and South Carolina traded places, Louisiana jumped up a handful of spots on the strength of some dated polls being added to the mix today and Texas and West Virginia exchanged slots.
Again, there isn't that much to the discussion of states that are done in the eyes of most folks.
FHQ mentioned Florida above, but beyond the Sunshine state, Colorado and Virginia seem to be the best opportunities for Romney (again, given the polling data we have) today. Does that mean Romney will be unable to push the partisan line deeper into the states colored in light blue or even those in primary blue? No, it absolutely does not. However, the odds are not in the former Massachusetts governor's favor to pull that off.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
NJ-14
(168)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
GA-16
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
ME-4
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
SD-3
(151)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
IN-11
(148)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
RI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
SC-9
(137)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
TN-11
(128)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
LA-8
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
WV-5
(66)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
WA-12
(154)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MT-3
(170)
|
ND-3
(61)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The final FHQ weighted averages in the 32 states with late-entry data are below. The remainder were already in the clubhouse so to speak or were never, in the case of states like Delaware and Mississippi -- polled in 2012.
| Final FHQ Margins (11/6/12) -- 1:15pm | ||
State
| Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona |
+6.81
|
Lean Romney
|
| California |
+16.79
|
Strong Obama
|
| Colorado |
+1.75
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| Connecticut |
+11.84
|
Strong Obama
|
| Florida |
+0.16
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| Georgia |
+9.24
|
Strong Romney
|
| Illinois |
+19.16
|
Strong Obama
|
| Indiana |
+11.27
|
Strong Romney
|
| Iowa |
+2.55
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| Louisiana |
+13.87
|
Strong Romney
|
| Maine |
+12.34
|
Strong Obama
|
| Maryland |
+21.29
|
Strong Obama
|
| Massachusetts |
+19.60
|
Strong Obama
|
| Michigan |
+5.57
|
Lean Obama
|
| Minnesota |
+7.53
|
Lean Obama
|
| Missouri |
+8.15
|
Lean Romney
|
| Montana |
+9.07
|
Strong Romney
|
| Nevada |
+4.05
|
Lean Obama
|
| New Hampshire |
+3.03
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| New Jersey |
+12.36
|
Strong Obama
|
| New Mexico |
+9.13
|
Strong Obama
|
| New York |
+25.02
|
Strong Obama
|
| North Carolina |
+1.56
|
Toss Up Romney
|
| Ohio |
+2.94
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| Pennsylvania |
+5.69
|
Lean Obama
|
| South Dakota |
+10.42
|
Strong Romney
|
| Tennessee |
+12.13
|
Strong Romney
|
| Texas |
+15.56
|
Strong Romney
|
| Utah |
+45.38
|
Strong Romney
|
| Virginia |
+1.79
|
Toss Up Obama
|
| Washington |
+13.36
|
Strong Obama
|
| Wisconsin |
+4.61
|
Lean Obama
|
If you haven't already voted early, go vote today.
No comments:
Post a Comment