| 2015 State Legislative Session Calendar | |||
| Date (Convene) | States | Date (Adjourn) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 1, 2014 | California | September 11, 2015 | |
| December 3, 2014 | Maine1 | June 17 | |
| January 2, 2015 | Washington, DC | year-round2 | |
| January 5 | Montana Ohio Wisconsin | late April year-round2 year-round2 | |
| January 6 | Indiana Kentucky Minnesota1 Mississippi North Dakota1 Pennsylvania Rhode Island | April 29 March 24 May 18 April 5 late April year-round2 late June | |
| January 7 | Colorado1 Connecticut Massachusetts Missouri Nebraska New Hampshire New York Vermont | May 6 June 3 year-round2 May 30 early June July 1 year-round2 mid May | |
| January 12 | Arizona Arkansas Georgia Idaho1 Iowa1 Kansas1 Puerto Rico Washington | mid April March 12 early April early April May 1 late May May 12 April 26 | |
| January 13 | Delaware New Jersey South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Wyoming1 | June 30 year round2 June 4 late March late April June 1 early March | |
| January 14 | Illinois Maryland Michigan North Carolina Virginia West Virginia | May 14 April 13 year-round2 early July February 28 March 14 | |
| January 20 | Alaska1 New Mexico | April 19 March 21 | |
| January 21 | Hawaii1 | early May | |
| January 26 | Utah | March 12 | |
| February 2 | Nevada1 Oklahoma Oregon | June 1 May 29 July 11 | |
| March 3 | Alabama Florida | June 15 May 1 | |
| April 13 | Louisiana | June 11 | |
| Notes: 1 States in italics are caucus states. State parties and not state legislatures control the scheduling of those contests. 2 State legislatures with year-round sessions. | |||
The table answers the first two of the three questions posed above. With the schedule of state legislative sessions down, though, what impact will this have on the formation of the 2016 presidential primary calendar? The biggest thing is that 2016 is not 2012. There are not nearly 20 states that have to make some form of scheduling change to comply with changes to the structure of the primary process at the national party level. In 2008 both parties allowed February contests. For 2012, both parties changed their minds and constructed a calendar structure that had the carve-outs in February and all other states in March or later.
Right off the bat, then, the 2012 cycle had a tension between where state laws had various primaries scheduled and what the national parties wanted in terms of the overall calendar. That tension has been greatly minimized. 2011 saw a significant amount of backward primary movement, and that process has continued in 2013-14. Importantly, past rogue states like Florida and Arizona have moved back from the brink and Michigan is signaling that it may follow suit. But that does not mean that there are not other rogues out there.
Here are a few things to look out for as state legislative session progress (mostly) over the first half of 2015 and into the latter half of the year.
Rogue states (2016 calendar for reference)
2015 looks a lot less like a minefield than 2011 looked from the national parties' perspectives. There are far fewer automatic problems on the calendar. New York has to move back. But the state legislature moved back in 2011, but just for 2012. Michigan and North Carolina have to move too. Michigan looks like it will move back, but North Carolina may be a different matter. Legislatures in both states convene on January 14.
The rest of the states that have any claim to a non-compliant position on the calendar at this juncture all have options that would allow them disarm in any potential fight with the rules committees in both national parties. Colorado parties can choose the March caucuses option laid out in state law. All the parties in Minnesota have to do is agree on a date they would like to conduct caucuses (by the end of February), otherwise the caucuses are automatically scheduled for the first Tuesday in February. The issues with Utah are twofold. First, and less problematic, the the Beehive state would only be on the first Tuesday in February if the legislature appropriates funds for a Western States Primary (WSP). That most likely means that there will not be an appropriation is there is no WSP. The second factor in Utah's case is perhaps more tension-ladened than the first. That has more to do with the attempt to move Utah to the first position on the calendar with online voting that popped up in 2014 and died on the final melee during the close of the legislative session after having passed one chamber. The very short session in Utah kicks off on January 26. We may begin to get some answers there then.
Regional primaries
Most of the talk thus far has been about southern primaries clustering on March 1, the earliest date on which the national parties allow non-carve-out states to hold primaries or caucuses. Florida, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia (and Oklahoma) are already scheduled for March 1 primaries. In 2014, Louisiana moved to the weekend following those contests and does not appear to be headed to an earlier point on the calendar as of now. Mississippi and Arkansas convene legislative sessions over the next couple of weeks and could join the fray with legislation to move primaries then. The state legislative session kicks off in March in Alabama. Alabama and Mississippi are easier to move (only a move up of a week) while Arkansas has some conflicts that make a move up from mid May tough but not impossible.
Regional clustering may not be done there. There was chatter about a midwestern primary in late 2013. Illinois and Missouri have already staked out a position together on March 15. Others may be interested in joining. Early in 2015, keep an eye on Ohio. The legislature in the Buckeye state opens its session on January 6. A later western primary may materialize as well (see Utah above).
Caucuses to Primaries or Primaries to Caucuses
Finally, one other factor to be mindful of is states switching from caucuses to primaries or vice versa. 2012 saw more of the primary to caucuses movement as Idaho Republicans abandoned the primary in the Gem state. Florida Democrats made a similar move but to avoid the sanctions associated with participating in a non-compliant January primary.
Fewer and less successful have been the attempts to shift from a caucuses/conventions system to primaries as a means of allocating national convention delegates. Minnesota tried it in 2009 and Maine did likewise in 2013.
There are always a few of these shifts. Typically, they do not develop in state legislatures; not the successful moves anyway. Rather, the changes in mode of delegate allocation that are witnessed tend to happen because of legislative inaction. State legislatures not moving non-compliant (too early) or very late primaries. Regardless, it is something to watch for as legislatures swing into action in the coming days, weeks and months.
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