Polling Quick Hits:
| Changes (June 14) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Strong Trump | Lean Clinton | |
The Sunflower state is one of those states that lacked polling data in the first iteration of the FHQ electoral college projection. After adjusting the 2012 data with the average swing given the available polling in 2016, Kansas was a comfortable Trump state. The margin was nearly 20 percentage points. However, the outlook changed for Kansas with the addition of the recent Zogby/Kansas Health Foundation survey showing Clinton in the lead.
The take home message from that poll is less that Clinton is ahead, but rather that a sizable chunk of the survey respondents -- a little more than one-fifth -- in a reliably red state are on the fence. And while Clinton's share in the survey is running about 5 points better than where Obama ended up in 2012, Trump's share lags well back of Romney's vote share in Kansas four years ago. Over 20 points. The bulk of that 20 percent has shifted from the Republican column to the undecided column.
That makes this seem more than a little like the Kansas Senate race from 2014. Independent Greg Orman displaced the Democratic candidate and was neck and neck with incumbent Pat Roberts (R) in the polling leading into the election day. Roberts ended up with a double digit win as most Republicans came home.
That situation may be similar to the current presidential race in the Sunflower state. However, it could also be that Kansas joins Utah as a state that is seemingly shifting away from the presumptive Republican nominee (but not necessarily toward Secretary Clinton).
Yes, it is still early, but additional polls in not only Kansas but across the traditionally and most reliably red states would help to fill out this picture.
--
One omission from the post rolling out the 2016 projection that bears mentioning is that the picture in the aggregated state polls is a little rosier for Clinton than the national polls are. The state polls currently have Clinton hovering in the area of Obama 2008 in the electoral college whereas the national polls have the former Secretary ahead by a margin at the moment that is more comparable to where President Obama ended up relative to Romney on election day 2012. Both measures -- national and (aggregated) state polls -- are pointing in the same direction.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(245)
|
GA-16
(164)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
MN-10
(168)
|
PA-20
(265)
|
MS-6
(148)
|
ND-3
(50)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(178)
|
VA-133
(278/273)
|
UT-6
(142)
|
NE-5
(47)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
NJ-14
(192)
|
OR-7
(285/260)
|
AK-3
(136)
|
AL-9
(42)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NV-6
(198)
|
FL-29
(314/253)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
KY-8
(33)
|
IL-20
(55)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(332/224)
|
SC-9
(122)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
NY-29
(84)
|
NM-5
(219)
|
AZ-11
(343/206)
|
TN-11
(113)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
DE-3
(87)
|
CT-7
(226)
|
NC-15
(358/195)
|
MT-3
(102)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
CA-55
(142)
|
CO-9
(235)
|
IA-6
(364/180)
|
TX-38
(99)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
KS-6
(241)
|
MO-10
(174)
|
LA-8
(61)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List remains unchanged from the previous (6/13/16) update.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/13/16)
2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: SOUTH DAKOTA
2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NEW MEXICO
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